A good sleeper pick in your fantasy football
draft can give your team a huge advantage over your opponents. Needless
to say, selecting players later in your draft that yield
early pick production can make for a long season for your league
mates. It is no secret that many championship teams can point to a
"surprise" pick or two during their draft that were real difference makers
for their team. With that in mind, the Docs have rundown a list of
players that you will want to consider targeting as "sleeper picks" in your
2008 draft plans.
For more information on what is meant by a "sleeper", "Average Draft Position",
or how our sleeper picks are reflected in the FootballDocs Player Rankings
and Projections, click here (or read the information located at the bottom of
this article).
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - SLEEPER
Slaton falls under the category of deep sleeper, as he represents a pick that can be had very, very late in your draft. When we look at late-round picks that bring huge fantasy upside, the Texans RB situation is another one that jumps off the page. The reason for our excitement is the arrival of Alex Gibbs. Gibbs is the Godfather when it comes to installing dominant run offenses (think late 90's - DEN), and he and HC Gary Kubiak go way back. Gibbs also made the ATL ground game dominant in the middle part of this decade. Gibbs will work his magic in Houston. The problem with the situation is that there are 1,000 RBs there. A load of capable backs spells an above average chance of the dreaded Running-Back-By-Committee (RBBC). This is bad news from a fantasy football perspective as carries (and stats) are smeared over several RBs during a game rather than just one single back. Having said that, Slaton brings the best upside of the group available in Houston relative to his Average Draft Position (ADP). Slaton's ADP is very low, and he presents a nice lottery ticket that can be punched very late in your draft (or even just closely monitored on the waiver wire). The good news with Slaton is that the backs ahead of him are some of the most injury prone backs in the league. Ahman Green already pulled his groin on his first carry of the 2008 preseason, and his knee has never really returned to form. Chris Brown's upright running style predisposes him to big hits, injuries, and missed time. That leaves Slaton, who is young, healthy, and very familiar with the zone run-blocking scheme used in Houston having played in that system in college. Slaton is an explosive back and a perfect fit for the Texans, and he could emerge as the season progresses.
Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets - SLEEPER
“All systems are go” for Jones to be a great value pick in your 2008 draft. Let’s do a quick rundown. Had a bad fantasy year in previous season? Check (only 1 rushing TD in all of ’06). Considered “old and stale” by the masses? Check (Jones is 30 years old and has been in the league for eight years). Has considerable, new circumstances that bring heavy upside to the table compared to the previous season? Check (The Jets added seven-time Pro-Bowl G Alan Faneca and three-time Pro-Bowl lead-blocking FB Tony Richardson in the off-season. Coupled with the #4 overall pick, T D’Brickashaw Ferguson, and the #29 overall pick, C Nick Mangold, from the 2006 NFL Draft, and the Jets have a mass of humanity between Jones and any defender that may try to tackle him). Has shown explosive capability in the past? Check (eclipsed ~1500 total yards and 9 TDs with the Bears in ’05). Versatile weapon on offense? Check (Jones has great hands and is a dual-threat, run-catch option out of the backfield). Some may criticize Jones as being too old, but that would be only a surface evaluation. Jones’ career took a few years to go rolling, and thus he has endured much less abuse on his body compared to similar backs his age that have been starters for most of their NFL career. Similar to Priest Holmes, it took Jones having to join a new franchise before he was given the opportunity to start carrying the bulk of the carries. Jones is no Priest Holmes, but their circumstances are very similar, even down to sharing the same lead-blocking FB. As previously mentioned, stud blocking FB Tony Richardson has now joined the Jets. Richardson is the same stud blocking FB that helped Holmes dominate the NFL and helped make a name for RB Chester Taylor in Minnesota before Adrian Peterson took over. Toss in the fact new acquisition G Alan Faneca has won all his Pro-Bowls based on his run blocking skills (Faneca’s pass blocking technique has always lagged), and things look very bright for Jones in ‘08. (UPDATE: With the signing of Brett Favre, Jones is unfortunately going to be squarely on everyone’s fantasy radar).
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions - SLEEPER
Johnson is one of those players that when
you evaluate his scouting report, you ask yourself “What? That can’t
be right?” Johnson has a freakish combination of size, natural ability,
and skills. How freakish? He rated better than Larry Fitzgerald
in all categories, including speed (Johnson ran a 4.32 second 40 yard dash
time). Did we mention he was 6’5”? (This is an inch taller than Randy
Moss). What about the fact he posted a 42 ½” vertical
jump in the combines? (Rumored to be as high as 47”). Just
think about that. Here is a 6’5” receiver that can jump over 40+” and
runs a sub 4.4 second 40 yard dash. Oh yeah, his hands are also one
of the softest in the league. We failed to mention that one.
So we say again, “What? That can’t be right?” So as you can see,
Johnson was freakish enough for Detroit to make him the #2 overall pick in
the 2007 NFL Draft, which marked only the third time in the history of the
NFL Draft that a WR was taken with the #2 overall pick. It is no wonder
folks were geeked on Johnson last year, his first year in the league. Unfortunately
for those folks, Johnson turned out to be a huge disappointment and visions
of fantasy glory faded like the fog in the sunshine. What most folks
don’t know about Johnson is that he played hurt all of last year. Johnson
got hurt in week 3 against Philly last year and never fully recovered the
rest of the season. How hurt? Hurt enough to require a big shot
of Vicodin just to be able to trot onto the field each week. In fact,
there were some weeks that ex-OC Mike Martz said in hindsight that they shouldn’t
have allowed Johnson to play. So for the first time in his career Johnson
experienced what it was like to play hurt, and the combination of playing
hurt along with adjusting to the speed of NFL defenses proved to be too much.
From a sleeper perspective, this is great news as most folks will just chalk
up Johnson as another over-hyped college standout. Johnson now enters
2008 100% healthy and determined to showcase his skills on the highest level.
With his rookie year behind him, his focus is intense, and he could post
a big year.
Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota Vikings - SLEEPER
Let's face it, when Rex "I can’t hit the
broad side of a barn" Grossman is throwing you the rock, your career has
no where to go but up when switching teams. In fact, it would be scary
to imagine what Grossman’s already horrid career passing stats would be like
if Berrian hadn’t been there to provide some serious damage control.
On the plus side for Berrian, Grossman did help allow him to remove some
of the question marks that caused him to slip to the 78th overall pick in
the 2004 NFL Draft (Durability? One year wonder? Capable of performing
at NFL level?). Having to constantly change direction and make
highlight reel catch after highlight reel catch from poorly thrown balls
will do that for you and put exclamation points on answers to those questions.
In fact, we would encourage you to cruise on over to “Youtube.com” and watch
some Bernard Berrian highlight reels. After a few minutes and once
you pick your jaw off the ground, you may be a little more excited about
snaring Berrian as a value pick in your 2008 fantasy football draft.
Having moved further north in the off-season, Berrian and Minnesota are a
match made in heaven. While the Vikings are not going to be confused
any time soon for the pass-happy offenses of the Colts, Patriots, or Saints,
they do have an offense on the up-and-up with a punishing, explosive ground
game that absolutely forces defenses to over commit extra players in the
box in an attempt to contain the run. Minnesota has sorely needed a
deep-threat receiver to keep opposing defense honest, and that is where Berrian
is a nice fit, giving the Vikings a deep-threat receiver that can actually
catch (if you still have your "Youtube.com" window up, go ahead and watch
some "Troy Williamson" clips while you are at it). With Berrian,
the Vikings have a dependable receiver that can both burn coverages deep
and provide a go-to receiving weapon inside the redzone. At 27 years
old, Berrian is entering the prime of his career, and he is in a very good
position to help rekindle some of the receiving magic that left MIN with
standout receivers Randy Moss and Cris Carter.
RB Steve Slaton, RB Thomas Jones, WR Calvin Johnson, and WR Bernard Berrian are just four of sixteen key sleeper & bust picks the Docs have in store for the 2008 fantasy football season. The remaining 15 picks
are included in our Total Draft Package, which is updated each and every week to give you the latest and greatest fantasy football rankings, projections, and draft information on the web. The Total Draft Package also includes our unique draft software for custom rankings and
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What is "Average Draft Position"?
Average Draft Position is an indicator of when a player should be selected
based on the average of hundreds of drafts completed by various fantasy football
leagues and mock drafts. For those that don't know and are interested,
FootballDocs Average Draft Position provides links to free Average Draft Info (Position) for the
2008 fantasy football season.
