Effect of Running Back Carries
on Future Production

Fantasy football draft strategy

Updated: June 28, 2009
Original Release: July 3, 2004

Michael Turner exploded onto the scene in 2008 and was fantasy gold. He's young, he's the feature back, he's coming off a huge year - all the stars are in alignment for 2009 right? Well, not exactly. There are two key factors that must be considered before drafting Turner in 2009.

In fantasy football, it's often difficult to predict which fantasy players will have a significant drop-off in production from one year to the next. This can yield devastating consequences for your team during your fantasy football draft, as you pay a premium price for a player just to have them crush your team with a very substandard season that did not warrant their high draft status. In this article, we will analyze yet another factor that can contribute to a disappointing fantasy season: The effect of Running Back Carries ( Running Back Attempts ).

Running backs are one of the crucial positions in most fantasy football leagues. While running backs can provide a consistently high source of fantasy points week in and week out and are in high demand on fantasy draft day, they are also prone to suffering a significant decrease in production after carrying the ball too many times in the preceding season. A running back's body is a machine, and, like all machines, they can only perform their function so many times before they must be replaced by a newer version (or sent in for repair). A great measure of wear and tear for running backs is the number of carries (attempts) they have in a season. To help illustrate this point, we have compiled a list of every NFL player that has experienced a workload of 370 carries or more in a season (through 2008) followed by their performance in the subsequent season.

NFL Running Back Player Carries Year Team Rush Yards Rec. Yards Total TD Comment   Larry Johnson 416 2006 KC 1789 410 19   Never has been the same since.   158 2007 KC 559 186 4                     Jamal Anderson 410 1998 ATL 1846 319 16   Tore ACL in next season.   19 1999 ATL 59 34 0                     James Wilder 407 1984 TAM 1544 685 13   OK in '85, but never the same after.   365 1985 TAM 1300 341 10                     Eric Dickerson 406 1986 LA 1821 205 11   Even E.D. had trouble with 400+.   283 1987 LA-IND 1288 171 6                     Eddie George 403 2000 TEN 1509 453 16   Never returned to > 3.4 ypc.   315 2001 TEN 939 279 5                     Gerald Riggs 397 1985 ATL 1719 267 10   On downslope rest of career.   343 1985 ATL 1327 136 9                     Ricky Williams 392 2003 MIA 1372 351 10   Downslope started in 2002.   168 2004 MIA 743 93 6                     Terrell Davis 392 1998 DEN 2008 217 23   Tore ACL in next season.   67 1999 DEN 211 26 2                     Barry Foster 390 1992 PIT 1690 344 11   Effectively ended his career.   177 1993 PIT 711 217 9                     Eric Dickerson 390 1983 LA 1808 404 20   Rookie season. Low mileage.   379 1984 LA 2105 139 14                     Eric Dickerson 388 1988 IND 1659 377 15   E.D. is the exception.   314 1989 IND 1311 211 8                     Jamal Lewis 387 2003 BAL 2066 205 14   Classic breakdown.   235 2004 BAL 1006 116 7                     Edgerrin James 387 2000 IND 1709 594 18   Tore ACL in next season.   151 2001 IND 662 193 3                     Ricky Williams 383 2002 MIA 1853 363 17   On downslope rest of career.   392 2003 MIA 1372 351 10                     Walter Payton 381 1984 CHI 1684 368 11   Like E.D. in '83, another exception.   324 1985 CHI 1551 483 11                     Marcus Allen 380 1985 OAK 1759 555 14   Bottom dropped out the next year.   208 1986 OAK 759 453 7                     Eric Dickerson 379 1984 LA 2105 139 14   Even E.D. is not always immune.   292 1985 LA 1234 126 12                     George Rogers 378 1981 NOR 1674 126 13   Injury bug next two seasons.   122 1982 NOR 535 21 3                     Emmitt Smith 377 1995 DAL 1773 375 25   Dropped 600+ total yds, 10 TDs, &   327 1996 DAL 1204 249 15   full yard on ypc (4.7 to 3.7).                   Michael Turner 376 2008 ATL 1699 41 17   It gets worse. See table below.   TBD 2009 ATL TBD TBD TBD                     John Riggins 375 1983 WAS 1347 29 24   Career ended two years later.   327 1984 WAS 1239 43 14                     Jerome Bettis 375 1997 PIT 1665 110 9   "The bus" sent in for repair.   316 1997 PIT 1185 90 3                     Emmitt Smith 373 1992 DAL 1713 335 19   Out 2 games for 1st time in career.   283 1993 DAL 1486 414 10                     Earl Campbell 373 1980 HOU 1934 47 13   Huge drop in ypc (5.2 to 3.8).   361 1981 HOU 1376 156 10                     LaDainian Tomlinson 372 2002 SDG 1683 489 15   Another rare exception.   313 2003 SDG 1645 725 17                     Curtis Martin 371 2004 NYJ 1697 245 14   Wear and tear caught up to him.   220 2005 NYJ 735 118 5                     Christian Okoye 370 1989 KC 1480 12 12   Nigerian nightmare was over.   245 1990 KC 805 23 7                     Shaun Alexander 370 2005 SEA 1880 78 28   Never was the same thereafter.   252 2006 SEA 896 48 7

The trend in the above table is clear and demonstrates drafting running backs with a large number of carries in the previous season is very risky business. Their fantasy football value will be extremely high due to coming off a huge season (after all, more carries means more opportunity to pile on stats and fantasy points), and overwhelming odds say they will not be able to justify that very high draft status and fantasy value in the following season. Through the 2008 season and out of the 23 running backs in the history of the league with 370 or more carries in season, in the very next season of play, (16) experienced a significant decline in fantasy production, (3) tore their ACL, (6) effectively had their career ended, and (1) is TBD (Michael Turner). Only Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, and LaDainian Tomlinson did not show any real effect or drop-off in fantasy point production in the season following their 370+ carry season. (Although Dickerson did have a couple of seasons he did drop-off, he was still good and is just an unbelievable example. The number of 370+ carry seasons and success following those seasons is just unreal). Stop and think about the names of Dickerson, Payton, and Tomlinson for a minute. They are arguably the best backs to ever play the game ("The best, Jerry, the best!"). The other 20 backs listed aren't exactly slouches and represent some of the creme of the crop in the history of the NFL.

Very high workload (carries) in the previous season equals trouble, and the cut-off for danger is ~370 or more carries in a year. The engine has overheated at ~370 carries, and you should proceed with extreme caution when considering any back in this category from the previous season as a very high pick for your fantasy football draft. Between 350 - 369 carries in a season, the "check engine" light is on. That pace cannot be maintained, and there is danger of a breakdown. Backs like Curtis Martin, Earl Campbell, Emmitt Smith, and Terrell Davis were able to tote the rock in the 350 - 369 carry range without a significant drop in production in the subsequent season, while others like Herschel Walker, Stephen Davis, Ahman Green, and Deuce McAllister did experience a significant drop in production in the subsequent season. As such, if you see over 350 or more carries in a season, it should cause you to raise your eyebrow as a point of possible concern.

While the absolute measure of ~370 or more carries in a season is a useful measure to critically evaluate running backs as potential let-down candidates for your fantasy football draft, the relative measure in number of carries from season to season is also an important consideration to keep in mind. Every running back is different, and their body is used to a certain level of abuse. If they experience a significant increase in carries from the previous season, it can be just as demanding (damaging) on their body as a season with a large, absolute number of carries. This relative, sharp increase in workload can also yield a breakdown in the subsequent season. To help illustrate this point, a few examples are provided below.

NFL Running Back Player Carries % Inc. Year Team Rush Yards Rec. Yards Total TD Comment   Dorsey Levens 121 -- 1996 GNB 566 226 10   In prime with little prior abuse.   329 172% 1997 GNB 1435 370 12     115   1998 GNB 378 162 1                       Garrison Hearst 234 -- 1997 SFO 1019 194 6   Effectively ended his career.   310 33% 1998 SFO 1570 535 9     0   1999 SFO 0 0 0                       Jamal Anderson 290 -- 1997 ATL 1002 284 10   41% inc. + 410 carries = trouble.   410 41% 1998 ATL 1846 319 16     19   1999 ATL 59 34 0                       Curtis Enis 133 -- 1998 CHI 497 20 0   Only 24 years old in 2000.   287 116% 1999 CHI 916 340 5     36   2000 CHI 84 68 1                       James Stewart 249 -- 1999 JAX 931 108 13   In his prime... it didn't matter.   339 36% 2000 DET 1184 287 11     143   2001 DET 685 242 2                       Stephen Davis 207 -- 2002 WAS 820 142 8   Load too much in Carolina.   318 54% 2003 CAR 1444 159 8     24   2004 CAR 92 32 0                       Corey Dillon 138 -- 2003 CIN 541 71 2   Too much inc. for this 30 yr old.   345 150% 2004 NWE 1635 103 13     209   2005 NWE 733 181 13                       Steven Jackson 254 -- 2005 STL 1046 320 10   46% inc. if include receptions.   346 36% 2006 STL 1528 806 16     237   2007 STL 1002 271 6                       Michael Turner 71 -- 2007 SDG 316 16 1   Very similar to J. Anderson's '98.   376 430% 2008 ATL 1699 41 17   Can Turner overcome the odds?   TBD   2009 ATL TBD TBD TBD   Risky & dangerous pick.

As shown in the above table, all the running backs listed (except Turner since TBD) had a breakdown after a large workload increase from the previous season (33% or more). As with any trend, it does not always hold as there are examples of backs that experienced a large increase with no ill effects (i.e. Priest Holmes in '01 and Tiki Barber in '02); however, it is something to keep in mind as another "proceed with caution" measure in your fantasy football draft. We would like to take a brief moment to also mention rookie running backs. Rookie running backs are generally excluded from consideration here provided they toted the rock as the primary ball carrier for their team in college. Yes, the NFL season is long and often you hear of rookie RBs discussing the added length (and abuse) of the NFL season, but the increase in workload from college is not typically as dramatic as many of the backs listed in the above table, and youth is also in a rookie running back's favor.

In 2009, we have a very special case with Michael Turner. Turner had an outstanding 2008 season with the Falcons; however, he also fails both of our measures for danger (370+ carries in a season and more than a 33% increase in workload). As of the date of this article, he is rated extremely high by virtually every fantasy football media source (#2 or #3 overall). While FootballDocs is based in Atlanta, we are not in that camp. The odds say Turner has a much better chance of not justifying his #2 or #3 status than he does delivering at that level. Having said that, there does come a point where the potential upside of Turner outweighs the risk relative to other available options, and in our opinion, Turner does have a place for consideration starting no earlier than #4; however, that is still earlier than we would recommend drafting him. Whether you actually take Turner at #4 or later depends on your comfort level. For those risk takers out there, you hope Turner has a lineage traceable to Eric Dickerson and Priest Holmes and can provide another outlying data point. For those pragmatic folks out there, overwhelming odds say Turner won't make it to your team as other folks in your league will fully support his #2 and #3 draft status. For those superstitious folks out there, note the Falcons have never posted back to back winning seasons in franchise history, and Turner's circumstances are eerily similar to another famous Dirty Bird RB, Jamal Anderson, who also failed both of our measures and had a terrible subsequent year that unfortunately ended with a torn ACL. Last, while Turner is in his prime at 27 years old, he is not a spring chicken (every year matters when toting the rock more than 370 times in the previous season), and he is facing an absolutely brutal run schedule this season (see our 2009 Rushing Strength of Schedule).

In summary, there is a correlation between the number of carries for a running back in the previous season and a drop in fantasy production in the following season. Nothing is more damaging to a fantasy football team than paying a premium price for a player in your fantasy football draft just to have them completely flop during the season and crush your team in the process. The number and/or increase of carries required for a breakdown is different for different players. A few select players don't breakdown until they hit the upper 300's in carries. Others fall-off after a significant increase from the previous season. A few more take several years of heavy workloads (350+ carries per season) to shut down, and some just always seem to be injured. However, keep in mind these breakdowns don't necessarily have to come in the form of injury or missed games. Some of these "breakdowns" occur because a team added a young running back to take some of the burden off the veteran with high mileage. Even those incidences can be linked to carries because someone is putting the back on the shelf because a breakdown was inevitable. As far as a fantasy owner is concerned, a low scoring fantasy week is a low scoring fantasy week, regardless of how that was realized. As a general guideline, an absolute measure of ~370 or more carries in a season is a cutoff for danger (although 350+ carries should cause a raised eyebrow), and a relative measure of 33% or more increase in workload in the previous season is also a cutoff point for danger. Naturally these guidelines are just that, guidelines intended to help reduce the risk of a poor fantasy football draft and increase the likelihood of a successful one. At the end of the day, it's all about stacking the fantasy odds in your favor on your draft day.