What is this? Two wide receiver articles in a row by FootballDocs! Have the real, running back-lovin’, Docs been abducted by aliens and replaced by a kinder, gentler, wide receiver friendly version? No, no. Don’t panic. We still stand up to be counted among the running back faithful, but we know the value of a good wide receiver. In fact, if you do decided to go running back early in your draft, you had better know your fantasy wide receivers better than the rest of your league. Thus, you will be able to make up for passing on some of the top wide receiver talent in the NFL with your later round picks of the draft. In deep wide receiver leagues (i.e. leagues that start a larger number of WRs per team and/or very large leagues), it can be even more important to know where to find serviceable fantasy wide receivers in your draft. Historically, rookie wide receivers have not been the best source of elite fantasy production. However, their history, combined with current changes in the NFL, does provide some motivation for looking closely at rookie wide receivers on draft day. Let’s take a look at the rookie wide receivers since 1998 that have had over 700 yards receiving in their first NFL season:
Rookie WRs with over 700 yards (1998-2004)
Player
Year
Round
Pick
Receptions
Rec. Yards
Rec. TDs
Randy Moss
1998
1
21
69
1313
17
Torry Holt
1999
1
6
52
788
6
Troy Edwards
1999
1
13
61
714
5
Kevin Johnson
1999
2
32
66
986
8
Darrell Jackson
2000
3
80
53
713
6
Rod Gardner
2001
1
15
46
741
4
Chris Chambers
2001
2
52
48
883
7
Antonio Bryant
2002
2
63
44
733
6
Andre Johnson
2003
1
3
66
976
4
Anquan Boldin
2003
2
54
101
1377
8
Larry Fitzgerald
2004
1
3
58
780
8
Roy Williams
2004
1
7
54
817
8
Lee Evans
2004
1
13
48
843
9
Michael Clayton
2004
1
15
80
1193
7
Keary Colbert
2004
2
62
47
754
5
From 1998 to 2003, every season except 1999 (3 WRs) has produced two or less rookie wide receivers with at least 700 yards receiving. In those years, there was a chance that you might be able to pick out those select few wide receivers each year that might contribute to your fantasy team in deep leagues (or in small leagues if you were lucky enough to grab Randy Moss, Kevin Johnson, or Anquan Boldin). In 2004, there were 5 rookie wide receivers that broke the 700 yard mark. What happened prior to the 2004 season to allow so many wide receivers to have success? As many of you will remember, the NFL made a new emphasis on defensive back’s contact past five yards. The rule was already there, but they made a point of enforcing it in 2004. As a result, the rookie wide receivers were allowed to run their routes, much like they did in college, without being physically handled by the defensive backs. Assuming that the NFL will continue to enforce this rule, there is a good chance that more than a couple of rookie wide receivers will break the 700 yard mark in 2005. Here is a list of the wide receivers taken in the 2005 draft through the first 116 picks:
2005 Rookie WRs
Player
College
Round
Pick
NFL team
Braylon Edwards
Michigan
1
3
Cleveland
Troy Williamson
South Carolina
1
7
Minnesota
Mike Williams
Southern California
1
10
Detroit
Matt Jones
Arkansas
1
21
Jacksonville
Mark Clayton
Oklahoma
1
22
Baltimore
Sharod 'Roddy' White
Alabama-Birmingham
1
27
Atlanta
Reggie Brown
Georgia
2
35
Philadelphia
Mark Bradley
Oklahoma
2
39
Chicago
Roscoe Parrish
Miami (Fla.)
2
55
Buffalo
Terrence Murphy
Texas A&M
2
58
Green Bay
Vincent Jackson
Northern Colorado
2
61
San Diego
Courtney Roby
Indiana
3
68
Tennessee
Chris Henry
West Virginia
3
83
Cincinnati
Brandon Jones
Oklahoma
3
96
Tennessee
Jerome Mathis
Hampton
4
114
Houston
Craphonso Thorpe
Florida State
4
116
Kansas City
Again, the key factors in allowing a rookie wide receiver (or any fantasy football player) to have an above average season are opportunity and talent. As we discussed in our Rookie Running Back article, if you have talent you will be taken in the earlier rounds of the NFL draft. Looking at the 700 club rookie wide receivers from 1998-2004, the 80th pick was the lowest selected player, Darrell Jackson. By limiting our review of the 2005 draft to the first 116 picks, we have accommodated the talent requirement. By looking at the opportunities available to these rookie wide receivers, we can distinguish two groups: Possible and Not Likely to have a solid fantasy season.
Possible fantasy contributors for 2005.
1) Troy Williamson - The Vikings possess a potent offense and will throw the ball in 2005. Randy Moss has left town and a big void to fill in Minnesota’s passing game. We feel like Nate Burleson will benefit the most from Moss’ departure, but Williamson is very fast and could be the recipient of some of Daunte Culpepper’s moon shot passes.
2) Mike Williams - Mike Williams becomes the 3rd wide receiver taken by the Lions in the first 10 picks of the NFL draft in as many years. Charles Rogers is one of the wide receivers that will be competing for receptions in Detroit, but he is also a huge injury risk. If Rogers were to get hurt for the 3rd year in a row, Mike Williams would see more than his share of receptions opposite the Lions top pick of 2004, Roy Williams. Even if Rogers stays healthy, Mike Williams is a large target with great hands and excellent body control, so he should still excel and get plenty of scoring looks in the slot.
3) Mark Clayton - Clayton will have every opportunity to lineup as the number two wide receiver along side Derrick Mason. Clayton is a “ready to play” NFL wide receiver and will go as far as Kyle Boller can take him.
4) Braylon Edwards - Trent Dilfer, the Browns new quarterback, has had five seasons where he has played in at least 10 games. None of those teams had a wide receiver break 1000 yards on the season. The best performance of a wide receiver working with Dilfer was by Jacquez Green in 1999 with 56 receptions for 791 and 3 touchdowns. There are a lot of other wide receivers in Cleveland and Dilfer doesn’t excite us, but Edwards is big, strong, and fast. Those traits go a long way in the NFL, so look for Edwards in the later rounds of your draft if you need wide receiver help.
5) Matt Jones - We wouldn’t be surprised if it takes Jones 4 years to develop like other college QBs who have made the switch to wide receiver in the NFL (Hines Ward and Drew Bennett). However, Jones is a physical freak with great speed, athletic ability, and height. If he can transform into a wide receiving freak, Jacksonville and every fantasy owner that has him will be very happy.
6) Courtney Roby - Roby wasn’t drafted that high, but we like his opportunity in Tennessee. The Titans have overhauled their entire team and many rookies will be forced to contribute in Nashville. Drew Bennett is the Titans number one wide receiver and Tyrone Calico will be their number two … IF he is healthy. If Calico can’t return from his surgeries, someone will have to step up at the wide receiver position and it could very well be Roby.
7) Reggie Brown - Brown could have solid value if he can stay healthy and Terrell Owens doesn’t play this season. Even if Owens plays, the other wide receivers in Philadelphia haven’t been that impressive. He does have a chance to compete for solid playing time.
8) Mark Bradley - The number two wide receiver position in Chicago is wide open and Bradley could push for playing time as the season moves on. However, this is Chicago and they had a terrible offense in 2004.
9) Sharod 'Roddy' White - White could make some plays in Atlanta, but he will be dependent on Michael Vick’s continued understanding of the West Coast offense. The Falcon’s wide receivers weren’t thrown to very much in 2004, so any White owners will have to hope that changes in 2005.
10) Craphonso Thorpe - Thorpe makes the list primarily due to the fact that the Chiefs don’t have much at the wide receiver position. At the same time, you should never forget that the number one receiver in Kansas City is their tight end, Tony Gonzalez.
11) Brandon Jones -Jones was selected in the same round as fellow teammate and rookie Courtney Roby, so Jones story is very similar to Roby’s. If Jones beats out Roby and things fall into place, Jones could be a fantasy factor in 2005.
Not Likely fantasy contributors for 2005. Roscoe Parrish Terrence Murphy Vincent Jackson Chris Henry Jerome Mathis
