Original release: June 1, 2005 Updated: August 28, 2005
We have received a load of questions lately about our thoughts on the rookie running back prospects. We don't know
if folks are just overlooking our article archive or if this article is getting lost in the mix, so we've re-released this article. All of the article remains unchanged
except for the section on Maurice Clarett.
We know exactly what you were thinking during the 2005 NFL Draft:
1) Why does every NFL team take the full 15 minutes?
2) Which one of these guys is going to help my fantasy football team in 2005?
While the first question is a complete mystery to us, the second is right up our alley.
When evaluating immediate impact fantasy football talent, we like to start with the top position in almost every fantasy football
scoring system … yes, the running back. Rookie running backs are not only a position that
you should consider drafting each year, but they are a position that you should highly consider...period.
Why? Rookie running backs have a well established history of being significant contributors
on fantasy squads. The transition and learning curve for a rookie RB is much less steep than that of a QB or WR, where timing
and chemistry are critical to their success. Typically one of the hardest things a rookie RB must deal with is blocking; however,
this is not detrimental to their immediate success as a savvy veteran can be substituted for these rookies on third down and long yardage
situations. In the meantime, rookie RBs are still fed the ball on a regular basis, which gives them ample opportunity to rack up
some gaudy fantasy numbers in only their first year of play. To provide some hard numbers to back-up this fact, check these out:
Player
Year
Pick
Rush Yards
Rush TDs
Rec. Yards
Rec. TDs
Kevin Jones
2004
30
1133
5
180
1
Julius Jones
2004
43
819
7
109
0
Domanick Davis
2003
101
1031
8
351
0
William Green
2002
16
887
6
113
0
Clinton Portis
2002
51
1508
15
364
2
LaDainian Tomlinson
2001
5
1236
10
367
0
Jamal Lewis
2000
5
1364
6
296
0
Edgerrin James
1999
4
1553
13
586
4
Ricky Williams
1999
5
884
2
172
0
Fred Taylor
1998
9
1223
14
421
3
As you can see, there is at least one rookie running back that breaks out with a great season every year. A selection like those listed above in the middle to late
rounds of your fantasy football draft can make the difference between a championship caliber fantasy football team and a mediocre squad. While it is impossible to guarantee which rookie running back will
emerge to have a breakout fantasy season in 2005, there are a couple of things you can do to help stack the odds in your favor:
First, pick a RB that has the talent to win the starting job. If a guy doesn’t have what it takes to be a top tier running back in the NFL,
they just aren’t going to breakout. You can eliminate rookie running backs that were either drafted too late or that weren’t
drafted at all. Given the recent history of the NFL draft presented above, it is safe to say that the rookie running back that will
have a breakout season in 2005 will come from the first four rounds of the draft. The lowest picked running back to breakout in
his rookie season since 1998 was Domanick Davis at the 101st pick (note to the Denver RB nation: Maurice Clarett was the 101st pick of this year’s draft.)
Second, select a RB in a favorable situation with ample opportunity. Some running backs that were selected
in 2005 were selected as a backup or as a project that will help the team in the future. These are not the running backs that you want
to draft in a 2005 fantasy football redraft league. You want the players that will have a chance to compete for the starting job right away.
Here is a list of the running backs drafted in the first four rounds of the 2005 NFL Draft:
Player
College
Round
Overall Pick
NFL team
Ronnie Brown
Auburn
1
2
Miami
Cedric Benson
Texas
1
4
Chicago
Carnell Williams
Auburn
1
5
Tampa Bay
J.J. Arrington
California
2
44
Arizona
Eric Shelton
Louisville
2
54
Carolina
Frank Gore
Miami (Fla.)
3
65
San Francisco
Vernand Morency
Oklahoma State
3
73
Houston
Ryan Moats
Louisiana Tech
3
77
Philadelphia
Maurice Clarett
Ohio State
3
101
Denver
Marion Barber
Minnesota
4
109
Dallas
Brandon Jacobs
Southern Illinois
4
110
N.Y. Giants
Ciatrick Fason
Florida
4
112
Minnesota
Alvin Pearman
Virginia
4
127
Jacksonville
Darren Sproles
Kansas State
4
130
San Diego
By only looking at the first four rounds, we have accommodated the talent requirement (more or less). The opportunities that are
available to the rookie running backs in 2005 can be broken down into the following groups:
Rookie RBs that have a VERY good chance of being the “go-to guy” in 2005:
1) J.J. Arrington – There is little reason to believe that anyone other than Arrington will be the Cardinals #1 RB on opening day. Marcel Shipp doesn’t scare us, and he won’t scare Arrington either.
2) Ronnie Brown – Touted as the best RB in the 2005 draft class by many NFL scouts, Brown should have every opportunity to be the Dolphins primary ball carrier. Just pray that the Dolphins O-line doesn’t get him killed before he can make an impact. However, Ricky “Ayurveda - Wholistic Medicine” Williams could come back and really mess with the Miami backfield if he is not traded. Be sure to keep an eye on this crucial fantasy situation throughout the 2005 off-season.
3) Carnell Williams – Williams is talented and loved by John Gruden. Expect him to see the majority of carries, but don’t be surprised if Michael Pittman steals some touches. Pittman looked good last season at times and could chip away at Williams’ full fantasy potential. There is also the small chance that Charlie Garner could return from the torn patellar tendon he suffered last season to cause some havoc in the Bucs’ backfield.
4) Cedric Benson – Last season Thomas Jones was a machine … until Rex Grossman got hurt. At that point the entire Bears offense fell apart. Thomas Jones could force Benson to split carries. This combines with the Bears terrible offense to make Benson the least attractive of the top four rookie RBs in the 2005 class.
Rookie RBs that could steal the starting job:
5) Frank Gore – No one stepped up for the 49ers in 2004 to run the ball consistently. Gore is a product of Miami (FL) and is supposed to have talent to burn when he is healthy. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this running back take over the as the 49ers #1 RB.
6) Maurice Clarett – We hate to list him so high, but you NEVER know who will be the primary ball carrier in Denver. If you draft Clarett, expect to be made-fun-of by your league mates. It is a fact of life you just have to accept if you make this move. (8/25/05 UPDATE: It looks like Clarett is going to be cut tomorrow. Avoid Clarett in all drafts).
Rookie RBs that could split time or see goal line duty:
7) Brandon Jacobs – Talk has already begun about the “New Thunder and Lighting”. Jacobs could vulture some TDs if the coach tries to spare Tiki Barber some goal line abuse.
8) Ryan Moats – Andy Reid likes to change up his RBs, so Moats could see some playing time.
9) Marion Barber – Parcels loves to run the ball, and there have been whispers that the team might try to split up carries to try and give Julius Jones some breathing room.
However, don’t forget the team signed Anthony Thomas this offseason.
Rookie RBs that will see little game time and only have handcuff value incase of injury:
10) Eric Shelton – Carolina’s running backs seem to get hurt often, and the team proved that they could run the ball decently even with a fullback carrying the bulk of the load.
11) Vernand Morency – Could see significant time if Domanick Davis goes down, but there are a load of other RBs in Houston he would have to beat out. Rumors have also started that the team wants to lighten Davis’ load so that he will be healthier in 2005 than he was in 2004.
12) Ciatrick Fason – If a whole lot of stuff happens (injury, crazy head coach), Fason could have a great season with a Vikings team that is one of the best in the business at running the ball.
13) Darren Sproles – Very shifty back that will only see significant time if LaDainian Tomlinson goes down.
14) Alvin Pearman – Fragile Fred could go down at any moment, but there are still several other running backs in Jacksonville.
