Free Fantasy Football Advice

"Ask the Docs" Mailbag Replies

NFL Week 15: "Ask the Docs" Replies

Friday, December 16, 2011

In week 15, fantasy owners are so close to a title shot they can taste it. A season worth of key line-up decisions, critical waiver wire additions, and strategic trades are all riding on this game. A single game that if goes well means a birth to your championship game. If not, it's never too early to start putting your 2012 draft strategy together. But hey, we're gonna give it our best shot to help make sure the former happens rather than the latter. Thanks to all who wrote in and good luck!


"I'm in the 2nd week of our first round of playoffs. The winner with the most points over two weeks goes to the finals. Right now, I'm tied. I need to choose a QB for week 15: Philip Rivers or Mark Sanchez. Also, I need to pick two RBs: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch or Michael Bush. Thank so much for your advice! "

-- Elizabeth, Garner, NC

Docs: Hey Elizabeth, we'd go with Rivers at your QB and Peterson and Lynch as your RBs. As you can see in our Week 15 fantasy football RB rankings, it's very close between your 3 RBs with Michael Bush nipping at the heels of Lynch and Peterson, but we give the ever so slight edge to Lynch and Peterson. However, those rankings assume Peterson will be ready to go. It appears he will, but there are some reports his ankle is giving him a little more trouble than expected. If on Sunday it appears he will be limited, then we make the switch to Bush for Peterson.


"I am allowed to use CJ Spiller as either a WR or an RB. My RB slots are being held by Michael Bush and Felix Jones, so I'm not looking to replace either of them. However, I need to use three of the following WR's:

Hakeem Nicks
Roddy White
Brandon Marshall
Michael Crabtree
CJ Spiller

Spiller shows up in RB rankings, so I can't really know where he would "slot in" if compared to WR's. I'm in a non-PPR scoring system. Thanks for your insight. "

-- Andy, Phoenix, AZ

Docs: Andy, you've got some nice match-ups and circumstances this week. Both Bush and Jones have very good shots at posting solid games, which means the fantasy odds are already stacked in your favor. You also have a nice collection of WRs that undoubtedly help stack those odds even more in your favor. As for your question, we generally lean to a RB a little more over a WR in non PPR formats for a flex, provided the players at each position are of similar quality (tier 1 WR vs tier 1 RB, tier 2 WR vs. tier 2 RB, etc.). RB production is a little more stable as they almost always produce some positive points, whereas a WR in a non PPR league runs the risk of getting shutdown and being a big no show providing you very little points. So having said that, let's work to a solution. It is probably safe to say you started Nicks and White as your WRs. So that leaves it between Marshall, Crabtree, and Spiller for your last WR slot. To be honest, this is really tough. Between Marshall and Crabtree, we give the edge to Marshall this week. So now it comes down to Marshall or Spiller. At this point, we consider Marshall in another tier of value compared to Spiller, but just barely. As in Marshall would be in the bottom of the tier above Spiller, who would be at the top of the next tier. You could drive yourself crazy on this one as there is no clear cut winner, but we think if this thing were to play out 100 times, Marshall would barely edge out the other two in terms of production. We'd go with Marshall.


"I need one WR and one FLEX player in a point per reception (PPR) league. Player available: LeGarrette Blount (RB, TAM), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG), Nate Washington (WR, TEN), Jabar Gafney (WR, WAS), Michael Crabtree (WR, SF), and Robert Meachem (WR, NO)."

-- Anthony, Bloomingdale, IL

Docs: It sounds crazy, but we definitely go with Jabar Gaffney for your WR, particularly in a PPR league. Gaffney has been a focal point for Rex Grossman, and he stands a very good chance at posting a solid game this week. As for your FLEX, we'd go with Crabtree since you are in a PPR. (For those of you in non-PPR leagues, we give the edge to Blount). Crabtree gets a lot of targets and receptions and has been very consistent the past few weeks, particularly in PPR formats. We'd prefer it if he didn't face the Steelers this week, but we do like the fact he gets to play on Monday Night, which means you have to make your opponent sweat it out to the very last minute. After all, it only takes one pass for a big play at the end of the game to put you over the top. In the meantime, your opponent will sweat with pass after pass after pass going Crabtree's way as you slowly either chip into their lead or pull further away.


"My question is to play RB Ryan Grant or RB Steven Jackson. Also, at team defense do I play DAL or CIN? The other team already played M. Jones-Drew so I just at least 11 pts. from one of those RB to tie his performance. This is my first year playing and I'm super excited I have the chance to win my league. Hopefully you can help me on my run to a Championship, thanks!"

-- Derek, St. Paul, MN

Docs: First Derek, don't start playing too conservative. The playoffs are not the time to over think things or change your decisions based on production from your opponent on Thursday Night Football. As such, ignore what MJD did and base your decision for your starting RB on what makes YOUR team the most competitive. With that in mind, we go with Steven Jackson. We need to see more than one good week out of Grant before we trust our fantasy title hopes with him. Jackson also brings to the table a dual-threat run/catch weapon out of the backfield, which means it is harder for opposing defenses to shut him completely down. As for your defense, go with CIN. The Rams have been very fantasy friendly to opposing defenses, so you want to be able to cash in on that tasty treat. It's a little odd seeing your defense going against one of your players (Jackson in this case), but don't let that bother you. A common mistake is for folks to either not start certain players or swap a defense based on having to face common players on their starting roster. There is a lot more to scoring in fantasy defense than just one player, so go with Jackson and the Bengals D.


"Afternoon Docs. Your draft advice and weekly commentary have been a big help all year - I'm in the playoffs and feel pretty good about my team overall.

I am a strong believer in the quarterback freefall approach but through a couple of unfortunate (okay, just dumb) moves I've left myself a bit weak at that position and need some advice. I have Palmer and Dalton on my bench but also have Locker and Fitzpatrick available in free agency (for the moment). I only need one QB but need to get as much juice from that position as I can.

Thoughts on my best QB move for the week? "

-- John, Scranton, PA

Docs: John, we know he burned you bad last week and ruined a great match-up against the pass friendly secondary of the Packers, but you have to go back to the Palmer well this week. The rookie QBs are off the table when it comes fantasy playoff time. Rookies are more prone to up and down games and have a better shot at crumbling on any given week due to inexperience and the transition to the speed of the NFL. Fitzpatrick and the Bills have mailed it for several weeks now, and now is not the time to manufacture some new found trust in him. Palmer is the most stable option for you and has a decent match-up this week. The odds of him tanking in consecutive weeks with favorable match-ups are very low, so if nothing else, take solace in knowing mathematical probability is on your side!