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"Ask the Docs" Mailbag Replies

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NFL Week 15: "Ask the Docs" Replies

Friday, December 18

Week 15 is here and there is a lot on the line in all kinds of leagues! This week we can feel the tension in your emails. We can almost see the trepidation with every keystroke. This is some serious stuff. This week Brett Favre is a great start ... for some teams and for others he is a bench player. In case you didn't get the memo, it is time to get on board the Robert Meachem bandwagon. He has been playing great for weeks and there is no reason not to like him in week 15. So many questions, so little time. Without further adieu, let's get to the mailbag.

"This year I managed to finish first in the league during the regular season, but with a few injuries and problems recently, I think it's time to call in the experts to help me out. This is an 8-team, 2QB league with performance scoring. My opponent has a decent team but I think I've got more stars than he does. What do you think I should do?

QB (start 2): Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Vince Young, Brady Quinn (Sanchez, Stafford, and Cassel highest rated QB's on waiver wire)
WR (start 3): Chad Ochocinco, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Donald Driver, Hakeem Nicks, T.J. Houshmandzadeh
RB (start 3): Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte (I could start 1 extra WR instead of a 3rd RB)

I really tried to upgrade my QB using WR depth, but no one would trade with the top team. I've listed the players in the order that I think I'd prefer to start them, but with the WR's especially I worry that I'll be leaving TDs on the bench. Anyway, win or lose this week thanks for getting me back to the top of the league this year. The draft advisor and regular season help has been the best yet this year - especially Sidney Rice at the start of the season! Keep doing a great job. Thanks."

--Rob, Charlotte, NC

Docs: Hi Rob - great to hear from you. This year has been a little atypical as a load of folks had to deal with proven stars underperforming and little known players emerging to become big fantasy football threats. This always happens every year; however, it's just that the swings in player performance seemed to be a little greater than usual this year.

As for your scenario, and when it comes to the fantasy playoffs, now is the time more than any other time to always stick with your horses. The fantasy playoffs can often lead to grave errors in judgment as owners succumb to the pressure of the one-and-done format and make line-up decisions that are out of character. It can be a very, very long off-season for you if you try to get too cute and over-think match-ups just to have a proven player post a solid game on your bench and a streaky, questionable player with a great match-up dish out an effective "fantasy no-show" as a starter in your line-up. Many are tempted by it, but it is a dangerous, risky game that can lead to an off-season of anguish and a legendary, over-think story for your league mates to remind / unleash on you each and every year of your draft!

Now, having said that, it does not mean you avoid leaning to certain players based on match-up when comparing two players of similar production / quality over the past few weeks. You can think of playing match-ups like recruiting in college: a five star player isn't guaranteed to develop into a stud, but the more 5 star players you have, the better the odds your overall team will be improved. The same holds true in fantasy football when selecting players based on match-up, provided those players are in the same tier in terms of production and quality. So that doesn't mean you bench a Tier 1 fantasy player (Reggie Wayne) in favor of a Tier 3 fantasy player based on match-up (Antonio Bryant), but it does mean you lean to one Tier 3 player (Antonio Bryant) over another Tier 3 player (Derrick Mason) based on match-up. The cumulative effect over your entire fantasy roster stacks the odds in your favor and puts you in a better position to win. We know in your particular case you are already well aware of this, but we try to craft these replies to help others who may not be as experienced!

So, moving to your particular case and looking at your roster, we would go with Rodgers and either Young or Quinn at QB. The players at QB you listed available on your waiver wire are too risky, and we are just not sold on Joe Flacco as a proven fantasy starter each week. Not that Brady Quinn or Vince Young give us warm fuzzies either, but you have to pick one of the three, and we favor Quinn and Young over Flacco this week. If all things were equal (equal being Young is completely healthy), we would go with Young, but the problem is things are not equal (Young has a bad hammy). Unfortunately you are just going to have to watch the news prior to kickoff to see what develops for Young. The safer play at the moment is Quinn (who would have ever thought we would say that), simply because he is healthy, the starter, and is not as much of a risk to get knocked out of the game since he is entering the game without an injury. Quinn has been a different player the past few weeks, and hopefully he can do that for you just one more week if you have to go with him. At WR, we go with Driver and Rice (after all, you are a Gamecock fan, and that would be a miserable off-season in particular for you if Rice erupted on your bench!) As for WR3, if your Steve Smith is from CAR, then we go with him. If he is the Steve Smith for the NYG, then we go with Ochocinco. Last, at RB, we go with Johnson, Gore, and Mendenhall. We favor Mendenhall over starting an extra WR.

Hope this helps and know we will be pulling for you this weekend!


"Hey Docs, well your advice was helpful last week in the first round of the playoffs after a victory by less than a point (your suggestion starting Beanie Wells helped), and I am now moving on to round 2 against another fellow FootballDocs fan (Don from Rochester, NY)

Anyways, I have a dilemma and would love some advice for the match-up. At QB, I have Cutler, Alex Smith, and I recently added Jason Campbell (4 pts. per TD). Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Chris Redman are also available ... yes I know I am desperate here.

0.5 PPR
At WR I am planning on starting the usually reliable Welker & Vincent Jackson.
At RB I'm leaning towards Beanie Wells (vs. awful Lions 'D') & Mendenhall.
At my flex spot, I have Benson, Calvin Johnson, and even Maurice Morris available.
At TE, I am continuing to roll with Dallas Clark, although I recently added Ben Watson for a potential problem of Clark taking a seat in week 16.

At Defense I am trying to choose between starting the Texans vs. the Rams or starting the Patriots vs. my beloved but sorry Buffalo Bills. The Cleveland 'D' is also available vs. the putrid Chiefs offense.

Any advice you guys can give me for my starting roster would be much appreciated."

-Brian, Rochester, NY

------AND------

"Standard scoring, 0.5ppr league, I need to choose 2 WR's and 1 RB/WR out of the following options: Reggie Wayne, Robert Meachem, Steve Smith (Car), Kenny Britt and Pierre Thomas. I've been using Wayne, Meachem and Thomas in these spots the last few weeks, but Wayne's lackluster play and potentially limited playing time concerns me, as does Thomas' match-up with a solid Dallas run defense (and a returning Mike Bell). Am I starting the right guys here?"

-Don, Rochester, NY

Docs: W-H-E-W! Brian and Don, you are killing us. In a first ever, we've got two folks writing in, from the same league, and playing each other this week... in the playoffs of all things! We feel like we are running out into the battlefield of a Civil War. Talk about putting us in a rock and a hard place. Is there anyway we could write your commissioner to get the two of you juggled somewhere else in your playoff bracket so you wouldn't have to face each other just yet??

First off - some general comments: We really like both of your lines of thinking, so trust your guts. With any luck, Don, you went ahead and started Reggie Wayne (Our #1 ranked WR this week: Free Week 15 Wide Receiver Weekly Rankings), and Brian, you went ahead and unleashed Dallas Clark (Our #3 ranked TE this week: Free Week 15 Tight End Weekly Rankings).

OK, Brian, Cutler makes us nervous as he is too unreliable to give the keys to during your fantasy playoffs. That leaves Campbell or Smith. As you can see in our Free Week 15 Quarterback Weekly Rankings, we give the slight edge to Campbell, but starting Smith over Campbell is not an unreasonable thing to do (you could think about Quinn too, but we lean to Campbell). At your flex spot, it's not an easy call between Cedric Benson and Calvin Johnson (Morris is not an option relative to Benson and Johnson), but if it were us, we would go with Cedric Benson. He has been there for you all year, and the last thing you want to do is have the ship go down with the Detroit Flag flying. Due to the very unfortunate death of Chris Henry (our sincere sympathies go to his friends and family), emotions will be running high in Cincinnati. Note there is talk coming out of Cincinnati that Larry Johnson will get more touches in an effort to keep Benson fresh for the playoffs, but that hasn't stopped the Bengals from giving Benson a huge workload in the past. On the other hand, Calvin Johnson does present a decent alternative; however, there are questions regarding his health (knee). He will probably play, but he won't be 100%. At any rate, neither situation is perfect, but if it were us, we lean to Benson pending no significant player news / developments between now and kickoff. As for defense, those are always so difficult to pick due to the large swings in play. However, we don't shy away from questions, so if we had to pick, we would go with the Pats and the evil defensive mastermind of Bill Belichick (with or without Wilfork). As you are well aware being a Buffalo fan, the Bills are #5 in the league in sacks allowed and #7 in the league in INTs thrown AND the Pats have their back against the wall - that is enough motivation for us. Interceptions give you a chance for an INT return TD, and that would be an added plus and a potential difference maker in your result this week.

OK, Don, we are willing to bet you did go with Wayne given your options, even though you had some question marks about him entering this week. As for your WR2, we like Steve Smith (CAR), who outside of a Week 12 no-show, he has been a very reliable play. We know he hasn't been giving you the receptions you would like to see as of late, but he is too explosive to leave on the pine and has brought a strong TD presence down the stretch (5 TDs in his last 7 games played). Far and away your toughest call is the RB/WR flex spot. We go New Orleans here as we like to favor winning teams, as they bring a touch more consistency to the table, and New Orleans still has much to play for. Now it boils down to Meachem or Thomas. That is a virtual coin-flip this week, as it could swing either way. If it were us, we lean to Meachem. Six TDs in his last six games (seven TDs if your league awarded him the strip/fumble return against WAS), is just too much for us to leave on the pine. You always run a little added risk with WRs regarding a complete no-show relative to RBs, who always manage to carve out a few fantasy points in the least, but again, the TD presence of Meachem is just too large to ignore relative to the fear of a complete no-show from a WR.

Good luck to you both. We hate to see that one of you has to lose. Hopefully the victor this week will complete the run and bring home the championship hardware this year!

Thanks to everyone who sent a question this week! It is always fun reading them, and we wish you all the very best of luck this weekend.