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"Ask the Docs" Mailbag Replies

NFL Week 17: "Ask the Docs" Replies

Friday, December 30, 2011

Week 17 is here and it's the final curtain call for the 2011 fantasy football season. We've had a load of fun and enjoyed all of you who wrote in during the year. For those still fighting for a title in the ever so tricky Week 17 of the NFL, we've given it our best shot to help stack the fantasy football odds in your favor. Without further delay, let's get to the mailbag.

"Who do I start at RB: Evan Royster (WAS), Stevan Ridley (NE), Donald Brown (IND) or Kendall Hunter (SF)?"
--Dan, Erie, PA

Docs: Dan, this one is tough and looks like you've been battling all year trying to plug in some sort of production at your RB#2 slot. However, you've done a great job by virtue of making it all the way to your title game - congrats. Out of the crew you have listed, we think it is between Ridley and Hunter for this week. With the 49ers having little to play for and not wanting to risk injury to starter Frank Gore, Hunter should see an expanded role against a Rams defense that has allowed a league high 154 rushing yards / game. The 49ers will want to see how the rookie responds to a heavier workload to evaluate his future with the organization. As for Ridley, he is another rookie that has been running well as of late and looks to have emerged as the #1 RB in New England (at least based on his performance and number of carries the last couple of weeks). He is another possibility for you given that and the fact he is facing a weak Bills' run defense. If it were us, we would slightly lean to Hunter. Hunter is a touch more explosive and keeps the big play in the cue as a possibility. Plus, you just never really know with New England what their game plan is going to be. Ridley could get 30 carries or he could get 3 carries. In all likelihood, he will get in the neighborhood of 10 - 15, but again, you never really know with New England. Playing in your championship, now is not the time for a 3 carry scenario to rear its ugly head relative to other options you have. As for Royster, Roy Helu is back to take carries and the Eagles' defense is respectable. As for Brown, he really has not been running well and his week 15 stat line is skewed by a single long run on a busted play by the Titans' defense. So in summary, we like Ridley and Hunter and give the slight edge to Hunter. Don't beat yourself up too much on this one as we are splitting hairs on questionable RBs. All it takes is a single TD, and any one of these backs could beat the others. However, we feel if this thing were to play out 100 times, Hunter would emerge with the slight edge in probability of having the best shot at giving your team the most points.


"It's Championship Week! Vikings D/ST or Seahawks D/ST? Darrius Heyward-Bey or Nate Burleson? Peyton Hillis or Brandon Saine or Derrick Ward? Thank you!"
--Michael, Hilliard, OH

Docs: OK, Michael, here we go. At D/ST, we would recommend going with the Seahawks. They bring a little more stability to the table over the Vikings, and the match-up with the Cardinals is tasty (Arizona leads the league in sacks allowed and is #3 in INTs surrendered). At your WR, this one is tough but we give the slight lean to Heyward-Bey. The Raiders are in a dogfight for the playoffs, and they will need Heyward-Bey to "show-up" to get the W to start the recipe of what is needed for them to get into the playoffs. Heyward-Bey has come on strong, and both his Head Coach and QB have been singing his praises. He also brings a deep ball threat to the table, which is always a nice option to have at your disposal as a single play anytime in the game can change the fantasy output of your team pretty drastically. Burleson is a tempting play as well, particularly facing the porous secondary of the Packers, but we just don't trust who the Lions are going to trot onto the field at QB after Stafford gets pulled. It is doubtful the Lions will risk injury to Stafford and allow him to play the entire game. A new QB means a new game, and that could go either way for Burleson. As such, we like the stability Heyward-Bey and the Raiders bring to the table over that of Burleson and the Lions. As for your RB, we don't want to get too cute with a title on the line, so you have to go with Hillis. He should be fine to play and by far the most safe option for you. Both Saine (GB) and Ward (HOU) are big gambles in the hopes they get more touches (and actually do something with those touches) while starters rest as their respective teams get ready for the playoffs. Hope this helps and good luck!


"I have Aaron Rogers and Alex Smith I'm not sure who to start. Smith put up good numbers on the Rams earlier this year, and I'm not sure if Rogers will play a half. HELP!"
--Jim, Youngstown, OH

Docs: Jim, you are in a classic Week 17 mess. The problem with both the Packers and the Niners is they have absolutely nothing to play for as they get ready for the NFL playoffs. No way either team will risk injury to their starting QBs, as there is really no quicker exit from the NFL playoffs then having your primary signal caller go down. While it is still not official whether either will play, we would go with Rodgers (assuming he plays). We would take our chances with what little time Rodgers would play over what time Smith would play. Odds are Smith will play longer before getting pulled, but we go with less time with Rodgers, who is much more explosive and has his sights set on the TD record - unlikely, but hey, maybe you get lucky. Really, and if possible, you should go to the waiver wire and try to find a last second addition. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) is a good candidate this week and has a great shot at being available for immediate pick-up. Take a look at our Week 17 QB Rankings to try to find a QB available to help your team.


"I have Aaron Rodgers or Eli Manning to start this week. Is it safe to go with Rodgers or should I go with Manning? Thanks."
--Dan, Kingston, NY

Docs: Dan, no question you've got to go with Manning this week. The Giants are fighting for their playoff lives, and Manning is assured of playing the entire game.


"First time fantasy football player now in the finals of a 16 team league! I have Arian Foster and pretty much no other RBs (had McFadden and D. Murray which got me to the finals, now I need to win without them!) Will Foster have ANY production? Half of Foster is better than my other options: Evan Royster (WAS), Sammy Morris (DAL), Isaac Redman (PIT) and Armando Allen (CHI). Which two RBs should I play?

For WRs, I need to play 3... and I am having a tough time deciding! Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), Brandon Marshall (MIA), Laurent Robinson (DAL) or Demaryius Thomas (DEN)?

THANKS!"
--Kelly, Eden Prairie, MN

Docs: Hi Kelly, congrats on making it to your title game in your first year (in a large league nonetheless). Welcome to fantasy, as we are sure you will be hooked for many years to come. As for your question, you've got a mixed bag at RB. We go with what time Houston allows us for Foster, and we would go with Royster as your RB#2. Honestly, it is between Royster and Redman, but we feel Royster brings a little better situation to the table than Redman. Unfortunately for Royster, Roy Helu is ready to go, but he is not 100% healthy and Washington will give Royster touches to not risk Helu's health (and future) too much. With a little luck, Royster will have a hot hand and give some nice runs with his early touches. If that is the case, Head Coach Mike Shanahan will feed Royster the ball as he is a big fan of letting a couple of different backs get various touches and then settle into one as the game draws to a close. At WR, we would go with Fitzgerald, Thomas, and Marshall as shown in our Week 17 WR Rankings. Anything can happen between the four WRs you have listed, but we feel those three give you the best shot at amassing the most aggregate fantasy points. Good luck this week and enjoy watching the games!


That's a wrap for this week. Good luck to all and have a safe, and Happy New Year!