Revised: August 1, 2007 Originally Published: October 29, 2002
Simply put, a good kicker selection will not win you a championship,
but it can cost you one if made too early in your draft. One of the
typical mistakes made by folks either new to fantasy football or the perennial
doormats of the league is drafting a kicker too early. They either
fall prey to the mentality of wanting to complete their starting roster or
convince themselves that the available kickers carry more value than other
seemingly less-attractive, skill-position players. This is a costly
mistake. These picks could and should have been spent on selecting
hidden gems/sleepers at other skill positions (RB, WR, and QB) that can breakout
and absolutely make a huge difference for their team. In fact, we recommend
you take your kicker with your last or second to last pick in your draft.
Use your other mid-to-late round picks for running backs, wide receivers,
and quarterbacks that could have a breakout season.
Beyond just missing out on potential breakout candidates at more meaningful
positions, there are several other reasons to not take a kicker until very
late in your draft:
The fantasy point difference between the
very best kickers compared to the very average kickers is relatively small.
Hence, you do not gain a significant advantage by owning one of the best
kickers in the land relative to the gains you can make by owning one of the
best running backs, wide receivers, or quarterbacks in the land.
The kicker position is one of the most difficult
to predict entering a season. This is largely due to kickers not
being in control of their own fate. They are completely dependent on
a third party to even have a chance to deliver results. Specifically,
they are dependent on an offense that can move the ball into position but
not good enough to get a TD (a.k.a. “stall” offense). Predicting which
offense is going to stall is extremely difficult and is reflected in the
top-10 kicker rankings at the conclusion of each year compared to a preseason
top-10 based on mock drafts. Kickers magically appear in the final
top-10 while other “reliable” options disappear for seemingly no reason at
all. Furthermore, kickers are also dependent on the quality of their
defense, as teams trailing by large leads need TDs rather than field goals
to have any shot at winning. Again, another variable adding to the
volatility of the kicker position.
Some of the very best kickers can and are
grabbed each year off the waiver-wire and/or free agent pick-ups early in
the season. Again, this is due to the volatility of the position
and difficulty in predicting who will be the best for that season.
If you draft a kicker early, you will have more of an emotional investment
in this player and will be more reluctant to drop them for another kicker.
Conversely, if you grabbed your kicker with your last pick or two in the
draft, you will have no problem kicking them to the curb to pick up the Neil
Rackers of the 2005 season off the waiver wire. A quick trigger on
the waiver wire for kickers early in the season can pay nice dividends for
your team. Typically, kickers who start the season hot in the first
few weeks generally continue that trend throughout the season.
So what do you look for when it does comes time to draft a kicker (a.k.a.
the end of your draft)? Again, don’t get too excited about your selection
and be ready to have a quick trigger on the waiver wire. All things
being equal (which they aren’t, ref: point #2 above), there are some factors
that are beneficial when selecting a kicker. First, weather is a big
factor. You want your kicker to have ideal conditions when he does
actually get his opportunity to kick, and for that reason dome kickers are
desirable. Another factor is a good defense. Good defenses keep
teams in the game, which in turn give kickers opportunities late in the game.
Conversely, kickers who kick for teams with bad defenses that put their team behind
the eight ball force the issue of needing a TD rather than a FG.
Consequently, these teams will go for it on fourth down rather than trying
a long field goal attempt. Last, select a kicker with a strong leg.
Typically many fantasy football scoring systems reward more points for field
goals of longer distance. Having a kicker with a strong leg or one
kicking in conditions that yield an effective strong leg (such as kicking
in the thin air of high altitudes) will always keep the possibility of raking
in those few extra points from a long field goal.
Hopefully we have convinced you of the pitfalls of selecting a kicker too
early. If you heed this advice, you are almost assured of not getting
one of the “top” kickers listed in our 2007 rankings. For those still insistent on
drafting a kicker early or perhaps in a unique scoring system where kickers
carry unusually high value, the Docs have crunched the numbers to help stack the fantasy
odds in your favor when selecting your kicker. All kickers are
ranked with projected statistics for the 2007 season. In-depth commentary for
the top 20 kickers is also provided to help you with your decision.
Our kicker projections, rankings, and player
profiles are included in
the FootballDocs Total
Draft Package, which also contains our top 450+ overall player rankings and in-depth projections, 300+
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drafting for your league scoring format, 85 page printable Draft Magazine, offensive line rankings (run and pass), strength of schedule
analysis (offensive run, pass, fantasy defense, each with regular season and playoffs), and more... all updated each
and every week to make sure you have the latest and greatest information and player rankings for your fantasy football draft.
