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2006 Sleeper Picks
Diamonds in the Rough

September 1, 2006

A good sleeper pick in your fantasy football draft can give your team a huge advantage over your opponents.  Needless to say, selecting players in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft that yield first-to-second round production can make for a long season for your league mates.  It is no secret that many championship teams can point to a “surprise” pick or two during their draft that were real difference makers for their team.  With that in mind, the Docs have rundown a list of 10 players that you will want to target as “sleeper picks” in your fantasy football draft plans.

For more information on what is meant by a “sleeper” and “Average Draft Position”, click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
We’ve had Gore on this list since day one back in late June, and Gore continues to do everything to solidify his position as a solid sleeper.  In fact, he may be getting a little carried away as he is now on everyone’s radar and on the verge of no longer maintaining sleeper status.  Most recently, Gore has finally run perennial disappointment, Kevan Barlow, out of town.  Barlow was traded to the Jets as Gore showed the 49ers this preseason he is picking up right where he left off in 2005. While Barlow has been given every opportunity to establish himself as a legitimate back in the league, he has floundered.  Barlow has been plagued with nagging injuries over the past couple of seasons, and we have seen his yards per carry (ypc) consistently get worse every year since the 2003 season.  With a 3.3 ypc average in 2005, the door of opportunity opened for the 49ers with rookie RB, Frank Gore.  So what did Gore do?  Outrun Kevan Barlow’s total 2005 season rushing output by 27 yards in only 72% of the number of rushing attempts.  Gore finished 2005 with a very impressive 4.8 ypc average while running behind one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in all of football.  Furthermore, he finished the season strong, tallying 108 rushing yards against the Texans.  Enter 2006 and enter 10-time Pro-Bowl Guard, Larry Allen, from Dallas.  The 49ers have made a big move to improve their offensive line with the addition of Allen.  Allen should open a few more holes for Gore than he is used to seeing.  This is a huge plus for Gore, as he is a breakaway threat that can also run with power between the tackles.  While playing in college at Miami, Gore was a standout back, rushing for 1,975 yards (7th all-time for Miami) and posting a very gaudy 5.7 ypc average over his entire college career.  Having returned from reconstructive knee surgery twice (2001 & 2003), Gore does present some added risk relative to other sleeper RBs mentioned; however, other backs such as Jamal Lewis have returned from such surgeries to post monster numbers, provided they are two years removed from the major injury, which Gore is.

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions
Detroit is a town that is starting to get serious about putting a winning product on the field for their fans.  After turning the Pistons into a championship team, followed by the Tigers remarkable turnaround thus far in 2006, the fans in Mo-town actually have something to cheer about for a change.  The Lions are now following suit.  They have given the offense a huge boost in the off-season, hiring from St. Louis ex-Head Coach, Mike Martz (a.k.a. ring-leader for the “Greatest Show on Turf”), as offensive coordinator and hiring from Green Bay ex-Offensive Line Coach, Larry Beightol (a.k.a. offensive line master motivator and genius), as their new line coach.  The Detroit offensive line has been much improved over the past couple of years and finished with a very respectable rating in 2005.  Beightol will help take this group to the next level over the next couple of years.  Everything is coming together to produce a very nice recipe for success for newly acquired QB, Jon Kitna.  With Joey Harrington shipped to South Beach, Kitna is slated to be the Lions starting quarterback.  The receiving talent Mike Martz has to work with for his offense in Detroit is well documented.  WR Roy Williams, WR Mike Williams, TE Marcus Pollard, and the emergence of WR Scottie Vines all give Martz a load of weapons to incorporate into his offensive creativity for the Lions.  Kitna enters his 10th season in the league and brings plenty of experience to the table.  Prior to Carson Palmer taking over in Cincinnati, Kitna posted a very solid 2003 campaign as their starting QB (~3600 yards, 26 TD, and 15 INT).  The only downside to Kitna is that the Lions have also acquired QB Josh McCown from Arizona in the off-season.  McCown has shown good potential in the past.  If Kitna struggles or if McCown wins favor in Martz’s eyes during practice, we could see a switch.  However, thus far Kitna has played solid in the preseason to help solidify his starting position, and McCown has actually slipped in Martz’s eyes.  Rumors have Martz moving McCown behind QB Dan Orlovsky on the depth chart.  Kitna makes a compelling grab as a sleeper pick in the later rounds of your draft.

RB Frank Gore and QB Jon Kitna are two of ten key sleepers pick the Docs have in store for the 2006 season.  The remaining 8 picks are included in our Total Draft Package, which is updated each and every week to give you the latest and greatest rankings, projections, and draft information on the web. Includes draft software for custom rankings and custom tier based drafting for your league scoring system, as well as an 85 page magazine.  Click on the link below for more information:

Crush your competition with the FootballDocs Total Draft Package, which contains our top 450+ overall player rankings and in-depth projections, 286 in-depth player profiles, 2006 Sleepers, Draft Advisor Software for custom player rankings and tier based drafting for your league scoring format, 85 page printable Draft Magazine, offensive line rankings (run and pass), strength of schedule analysis (offensive run, pass, and fantasy defense, each with regular season and playoffs), and much more... everything is updated each and every week to make sure you have the latest and greatest information and player rankings for your fantasy football draft.




What is a fantasy football “sleeper”?
A “sleeper” is a player that significantly outperforms their average draft position.  In short, if you are fortunate enough to select a good “sleeper” pick, you were able to grab a player that yielded much higher production than otherwise anticipated prior to the NFL season (ref: Antonio Gates in 2004; Carson Palmer in 2005).  Consequently, you want to select your “sleeper picks” a round or two earlier than you anticipate them being taken by your league mates.  However, you do not want to select your “sleeper pick” too early as this gives you the opportunity to use those earlier picks on more reliable players.

What is “Average Draft Position”?
Average Draft Position is an indicator of when a player should be selected based on the average of hundreds of drafts completed by various fantasy football leagues and mock drafts.  For those that don’t know and are interested,
FootballDocs Average Draft Position provides links to free Average Draft Info (Position) for the 2006 fantasy football season.




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