Wayne's rebound is not a sure thing. (MSA/Icon SMI)
Fantasy Football Busts
Dangerous fantasy football busts in your 2014 draft
Fantasy football busts can definitely hamper your fantasy football draft and put you squarely behind
the eight-ball all season long, particularly if they involved an early
round selection in your draft. A "bust" is simply a pick that underperforms his anticipated value as perceived by the masses from Fantasy Football Mock Drafts; however, just because a player is listed as a "bust"
doesn't mean that player is undraftable, it just means that player needs to be taken much later in your draft than their current Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.
Some of the Docs' past fantasy football busts include:
2013: WR Greg Jennings & WR Percy Harvin
2012: WR Laurent Robinson
2011: RB Knowshon Moreno & RB Rashard Mendenhall (Preseason top 10)
2010: RB C.J. Spiller & RB Kevin Smith
2009: RB Michael Turner (Preseason top 5) & QB Matt Cassel
2008: QB Vince Young
2007: RB Larry Johnson (Preseason top 5) & QB Eli Manning
2006: RB Edgerrin James
2005: QB Donovan McNabb
These are not your typical fantasy football busts. These were highly regarded players that cost a pretty penny in fantasy football drafts for their respective year. Drafting a player that does not support their high draft price can crush your fantasy season and put you behind the 8-ball all season long.
Once again, the Docs have crunched the numbers and uncovered numerical trends that
increase the odds of predicting players that will be fantasy football busts during the 2014 season. A list of those players along with detailed commentary providing
insight regarding why these players are considered fantasy football busts is provided below. Each of these players bring high risk to the table and stand a significant chance of not having as successful
of a 2014 fantasy football season as their previous 2012 performance (and current draft value) would indicate. Enough with the talk, let's get to our 2014 fantasy football busts:
For more information on what is meant by "Fantasy Football Busts" or "Average Draft Position", click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).
Player Type: BUST
When looking at Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings in the preseason, there are always a handful of names that just jump out as being overvalued. Reggie Wayne is most certainly one of those names in 2014. Despite shredding his knee last season and being 35 years old, Wayne is being drafted in the 30 - 35 WR overall range. The wide receivers listed behind Wayne's ADP will leave you scratching your head, as folks are just clearly trapped in yesteryear thinking Wayne will be the Wayne of old once again in 2014. Wrong. They reality is that Wayne is 35 years old and approximately 9 months ago completely tore his ACL. Major knee injuries such as a torn ACL can be devastating to a player and delay their progress to returning to their pre-injury form. The key to this immediate one-year slump lies in the function of the ACL itself. The ACL holds the femur and tibia in place and is one of the most critical ligaments to athletes because of its primary function of stabilizing the knee joint during deceleration. Without the ACL, players would fall to the ground due to the knee buckling when applying pressure from either stopping or changing direction. It is only natural for an athlete to be hesitant when running during the first year after an ACL injury. Given the speed of the NFL, there is no room for any kind of hesitation and still expect a wide receiver to get the separation needed from defenders to put up big numbers. In all, it typically takes two full years to fully recover from an ACL injury. There are exceptions to this "rule", such as RB Adrian Peterson, but Peterson is a once in a generation type of player and the exception, not the norm. Wayne is not a once in a generation type of player, and he is no spring chicken. The Colts have already brought in WR Hakeem Nicks in the off-season and drafted WR Donte Moncrief with the 90th pick overall. These are not the types of moves made by management when they are certain a player will return fully healthy to their pre-injury form. It doesn't look good for Wayne, and the overwhelming odds are that he will not produce at the level his current ADP suggests. Buyer beware.
Player Type: BUST
You may ask, what's not to like about a celebrated WR playing in the best offense in the NFL with the best QB in the game? Concussions, that's what. You won't hear any arguments out of us regarding Welker's ability as an elite WR. He is a human vacuum that sucks up any ball thrown near him, and he is lightning-quick to help get separation from defenders. At only 5'9" / 190 lbs, Welker is well undersized for his position. However, due to his God given ability and incredible drive to be the best, Welker has proven to be a decorated WR, which includes 5 trips to the Pro Bowl. While that same internal drive has been a true asset for him all these years, it is now going to be his Achilles' heel in a post-concussion world. Concussions are very poorly understood animals. The problem with a concussion is that once you suffer one, you can suffer subsequent concussions on much lesser hits. That's a real problem when playing a full contact sport such as football with 300 lbs defensive ends looking to clean your clock on every play. And that's a real problem for a player like Welker, who can't help but give 110% on every play. He is hard wired to play hard. When you watch game tape with Welker on it, he jumps off the page with his work ethic and drive on every snap. He never takes a play off, and when it is his responsibility to block, he lays completely out to take his defender out of the play. In short, he makes a full contact sport an uber full contact sport. And again, given his history with concussions, that is just not going to work. Furthermore, we've made it this far without even discussing the heightened sensitivity the NFL has to concussions and brain trauma these days. Lawsuits are being filed left and right by former players and their families, and the NFL is under intense scrutiny for its approach to player safety. Even if Welker deems himself OK to play, the NFL may step in and say no due to external pressure applied from existing litigation. The odds are against Welker, and he doesn't warrant his current ADP in the 5th rd of a 10 team league. There's a place for Welker in your draft, just not that early.
WRs Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker are just 2 of 16 key fantasy football busts and sleepers picks for your 2014 fantasy football draft. The complete list, along with our Draft Advisor Software, Overall Rankings (450+), In-depth Projections, Player Profiles (300+), Draft Magazine, and more are included in our 2014 Total Draft Package, which and can be purchased for just $11.95. Everything is updated each and every week to account for injuries, trades,
and depth-chart adjustments that occur during the NFL Preseason. Just click on the button below to get access today!