"Come on Docs... don't go busting on my boy, James!" (Icon SMI)
Fantasy Football Busts
Dangerous fantasy football busts in your 2013 draft
Fantasy football busts can definitely hamper your fantasy football draft and put you squarely behind
the eight-ball all season long, particularly if they involved an early
round selection in your draft. A "bust" is simply a pick that underperforms his anticipated value as perceived by the masses from Fantasy Football Mock Drafts; however, just because a player is listed as a "bust"
doesn't mean that player is undraftable, it just means that player needs to be taken much later in your draft than their current Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.
Some of the Docs' past fantasy football busts include:
2012: WR Laurent Robinson
2011: RB Knowshon Moreno & RB Rashard Mendenhall (Preseason top 10)
2010: RB C.J. Spiller & RB Kevin Smith
2009: RB Michael Turner (Preseason top 5) & QB Matt Cassel
2008: QB Vince Young
2007: RB Larry Johnson (Preseason top 5) & QB Eli Manning
2006: RB Edgerrin James
2005: QB Donovan McNabb
These are not your typical fantasy football busts. These were highly regarded players that cost a pretty penny in fantasy football drafts for their respective year. Drafting a player that does not support their high draft price can crush your fantasy season and put you behind the 8-ball all season long.
Once again, the Docs have crunched the numbers and uncovered numerical trends that
increase the odds of predicting players that will be fantasy football busts during the 2013 season. A list of those players along with detailed commentary providing
insight regarding why these players are considered fantasy football busts is provided below. Each of these players bring high risk to the table and stand a significant chance of not having as successful
of a 2013 fantasy football season as their previous 2012 performance (and current draft value) would indicate. Enough with the talk, let's get to our 2013 fantasy football busts:
For more information on what is meant by "Fantasy Football Busts" or "Average Draft Position", click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).
Player Type: BUST
Anytime you draft a guy based on a previous season where a serious spike in TD production occurred without many receiving yards to follow, you are setting yourself up for trouble, particularly when the position is wide receiver. Oftentimes you will see this sort of TD spike with pedestrian yards from tight ends, but it is much less common to see from a wide receiver, and that is by design of the position. The role of a WR on an NFL offense is pretty simple: play outside the box and catch passes... everywhere on the field, not just when the team approaches the red zone. TEs on the other hand have a different role. That role is to play in the box and mix it up with bigger defensive lineman. The TE position is equally important in blocking and pass catching, so a TE can be active in blocking and switch to being more of an active weapon as a receiver as their team approaches the end zone, hence the spike in TDs without a corresponding spike in receiving yards. But when a WR posts numbers like a TD-friendly TE, it immediately throws up a red flag. And that's exactly what we see from Jones, who as a WR in 2012 played in all 16 NFL games and started in 15 of them, yet he only posted 784 receiving yards to go along with his 14 receiving TDs. It's not natural. It's a square peg in a round hole. When things like this happen in nature, Mother Nature has a way of correcting it. That's why Spider Pig doesn't really have powers. He's just a pig . At the end of the 2013 season, Jones' TD spike will be corrected too. As a WR, he can't maintain low yards and high TDs, so something is going to have to give. The problem is that Green Bay is absolutely loaded at receiver. From WR Randall Cobb to WR Jordy Nelson to TE Jermichael Finley, it's just too crowded to be counting on another big year from Jones. Speaking of Finley, his TD total dropped from 8 in 2011 to 2 in 2012, and he'll be looking to take some of those back in 2013. Jones' 2012 TD total will artificially drive up his 2013 fantasy draft value, but don't fall prey. Jones has a place in your fantasy football draft, it's just not as early as the vast majority of folks are taking him.
Player Type: BUST
The NFL represents the best of the best of the best in the world at football. This includes players AND coaches. So when a player like Kyle Rudolph plays on a team that rated as the 2nd worst passing offense in the NFL in 2012, yet caught HALF of that team's total passing TDs (9 of 18), you have to deal with the best in the world at defensive coordinator the following season. Defensive coordinators are generally not the friendliest bunch, and they get particularly grouchy when a player starts piling up points on their defense. They take it personally, and their future livelihood in the NFL depends on them keeping scores low. So an off-season of dissecting game tape can spell doom for a player like Rudolph. And consider the game tape. We are talking about a horrible passing offense. If it weren't for the debacle known as the Kansas City Chiefs, the Vikings would have been THE WORST passing offense in the NFL in 2012. And on this horrible passing offense, there is one single player that caught half of their passing TDs. Hmmmm... remember the old arcade game Gauntlet? Remember if you hit that glowing ball and became "it", you suddenly had a whole screen of bad guys singularly focused on attacking you? Well, Kyle Rudolph is "it" in 2013 for every defense he faces. He isn't sneaking up on anyone. Of Rudolph's 53 receptions in 2012, 9 of them were made in the end zone. That means 17% of his catches went for a TD last season. There isn't a defensive coordinator alive that is going to let that happen in 2013, particularly with QB Christian Ponder throwing him the ball. Ponder is no Manning or Rodgers. To make matters worse, Rudolph has even less overall help this year as he did in 2012 as far as attracting attention away from him to other receivers. Minnesota lost both of their #1 and #2 WRs from 2012 to free agency. WR Greg Jennings is not a drop-in replacement for the shifty and young Percy Harvin, and rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson is talented, but a work in progress. Bottom line: There are plenty of quality TEs to be had in your draft, so let someone else take on the added risk when selecting Rudolph.
WR James Jones and TE Kyle Rudolph are just 2 of 16 key fantasy football busts and sleepers picks for your 2013 fantasy football draft. The complete list, along with our Draft Advisor Software, Overall Rankings (450+), In-depth Projections, Player Profiles (300+), Draft Magazine, and more are included in our 2013 Total Draft Package, which and can be purchased for just $11.95. Everything is updated each and every week to account for injuries, trades,
and depth-chart adjustments that occur during the NFL Preseason. Just click on the button below to get access today!