2010 Fantasy Football Busts

This write-up is to not say that Percy Harvin is going to have a disaster year; however, we find it extremely difficult to see him having an impact year. His Average Draft Position (ADP) would say otherwise, as folks are drafting Harvin in a range where they expect a big year. Overwhelming odds say that won't be the case, and what they will get is a very similar year from Harvin in 2010 as they got in 2009, assuming he doesn't get hurt, which is a huge assumption. Drafting a WR that will give you around 800 yards and 6 TDs is not going to win you any championships. He is not an every week fantasy starter, and his role on your team is to occupy a roster slot for use only during favorable match-ups or a BYE. That sort of player, if even drafted, is taken very, very late in your draft (again, if ever). Yet Harvin's ADP is anything but very, very late and attributed in part to the hype from his 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The problem with Harvin is that there is just too much talent in MIN. Sidney Rice may be lost for most of the season, but Bernard Berrian is a quality receiver. Mix in RBs that have good hands and TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and the only scenario Harvin increases his numbers is to take numbers that Sidney Rice had in 2009. The problem with Harvin is that his migraines have been a huge story in the preseason. Migraines aren't the type of injury you tape up and ice down. Migraines and football player's heads are a touchy subject, particularly in a full contact sport. Harvin will provide some impressive games, but he will also leave you with a headache trying to figure out if he will start each week. There is a good chance that Harvin will look into a bright light right before a game and then you will get a big fat zero that week from your starting wide receiver. Harvin is just no something you want to deal with. On top of migraines, Harvin's injury history could compete with your local ER (achilles tendonitis, knee tendonitis, hip flexor, hamstring, quad issues - just to name a few). He has significant durability issues and the overwhelming odds say he doesn't make it through 2010 without missing time.

Few things hurt as bad as drafting a key player that gets hurt. Now in many cases it is just bad luck as predicting injury is anything but a science; however, in other cases there are a handful of players that just seem to consistently find a way to get hurt. Sims-Walker is just that type of player. Sims-Walker's ADP value assumes he will not get hurt, and sure, if Sims-Walker were to play the entire season, the odds say he would have a nice year. The problem is that Sims-Walker has an extremely difficult time playing the entire year. In fact, he has yet to do it in his NFL career. Selected in the 3rd round of the 2007 NFL Draft, Sims-Walker was tapped to be Jimmy Smith's replacement. Unfortunately for Sims-Walker and the Jaguars, his surgically repaired knee had other plans and caused him to miss the entire 2007 season. In 2008 Sims-Walker suffered yet another knee injury. At one time it was feared to be a torn MCL, but MRI's later proved to be a sprain. Sprain or not, Sims-Walker knees have been anything but good to him, and they caused him to miss 7 games of the 2008 season. Now enter the 2009 season. Sims-Walker had a breakout campaign and came out of the gates on fire once getting a chance to play in week 2. For the next 8 weeks, Sims-Walker pulled in 47 receptions for 694 yards and 6 TDs. If he were to maintain that pace for a full 16 game season, Sims-Walker would have nailed a Pro-Bowl year of 94 receptions, 1,388 yards, and 12 TDs. Again, the problem being Sims-Walker was unable to maintain that pace. His knees failed him yet again. Due to knee inflammations, Sims-Walker amassed a grand total of just 16 receptions for 175 yards and 1 TD over his next 6 games (or extrapolated to a full 16 game season, 43 receptions for just 467 yards and 3 TDs). That spells danger Will Robinson. In his three years in the league, Sims-Walker has yet to make it through a season without his knee either forcing him to miss time, play at a lower level, or end his season. The 2010 season should prove to be no different, so buyer beware.