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Fantasy Football Busts
Dangerous fantasy football busts in your 2012 draft
Fantasy football busts can definitely hamper your fantasy football draft and put you squarely behind
the eight-ball all season long, particularly if they involved an early
round selection in your draft. A "bust" is simply a pick that underperforms his anticipated value as perceived by the masses from Fantasy Football Mock Drafts; however, just because a player is listed as a "bust"
doesn't mean that player is undraftable, it just means that player needs to be taken much later in your draft than their current Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.
Some of the Docs' past fantasy football busts include:
2011: RB Knowshon Moreno & RB Rashard Mendenhall (Preseason top 10)
2010: RB C.J. Spiller & RB Kevin Smith
2009: RB Michael Turner (Preseason top 5) & QB Matt Cassel
2008: QB Vince Young
2007: RB Larry Johnson (Preseason top 5) & QB Eli Manning
2006: RB Edgerrin James
2005: QB Donovan McNabb
These are not your typical fantasy football busts. These were highly regarded players that cost a pretty penny in fantasy football drafts for their respective year. Drafting a player that does not support their high draft price can crush your fantasy season and put you behind the 8-ball all season long.
Once again, the Docs have crunched the numbers and uncovered numerical trends that
increase the odds of predicting players that will be fantasy football busts during the 2012 season. A list of those players along with detailed commentary providing
insight regarding why these players are considered fantasy football busts is provided below. Each of these players bring high risk to the table and stand a significant chance of not having as successful
of a 2012 fantasy football season as their previous 2011 performance (and current draft value) would indicate. Enough with the talk, let's get to our 2012 fantasy football busts:
For more information on what is meant by "Fantasy Football Busts" or "Average Draft Position", click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).
Player Type: BUST
Just thinking about the name Jamaal Charles, along with Adrian Peterson for that matter, makes us lose control and frail our arms around screaming "DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!" Furthermore, looking at Average Draft Position (ADP) for Charles makes us blurt out "DOES NOT COMPUTE". And if one of us happens to be in the room during your fantasy football draft and you decide to pull the trigger on Charles too early, you can fully expect an "I CANNOT ACCEPT THAT COURSE OF ACTION!" from us. Charles has all sorts of factors that can single handedly result in a down year, let alone the potential risk of ALL of them coming through and combining their powers to pull off a mega nuke of stink bomb year for Charles at epic levels. Let's start with the most obvious, and that being Charles is returning from a major injury (a torn ACL suffered in week 2 last season). Torn ACLs and NFL RBs do not mix, and it has been shown to take typically two full years for an NFL RB to recover from such an injury to return to their pre-injury form (see our "RB Two Year Major Injury Rule" article). Next, the Chiefs added Peyton "The Juggernaut" Hillis to the roster. They also lost Pro-Bowl lead blocking FB Le'Ron McClain to the Chargers in the off-season. The one-two punch of losing a Pro-Bowl lead blocking FB and adding a former 1,000+ yard RB and former EA Sports Madden Coverboy that is in his prime is enough alone to breakout the Maalox when just thinking about Jamaal Charles. As if that wasn't enough, the Chiefs also lost Pro-Bowl C Casey Wiegmann. Wiegmann has played 9 years in KC, and now the Chiefs get to see what it is like without his services. The loss of Wiegmann followed the loss of six time Pro Bowl G Brian Waters, who left the Chiefs prior to the start of the 2011 season (and promptly earned a Pro-Bowl with the Patriots). Since Charles tore his knee early in the season, he doesn't really know what it is like not running behind Waters. He will get that opportunity in 2012 (along with McClain and Wiegmann gone), coming off a major injury, and competing with Hillis for touches.
Player Type: BUST
When Adrian Peterson comes floating down to you in your draft, think Circuit City, Borders Books, or Blockbuster Video. At one time, each was the unquestioned standard for the industry, but don't fall prey to the elixir of the brand name. Looking at Average Draft Position (ADP) information, Peterson is being selected as high as the 7th overall pick in fantasy football drafts. The brand name Peterson has established is too strong for folks to pass in their draft, and there is a time and place for him in your draft, just not anywhere close to that early. Peterson has nailed double digit TDs in each season of his six year NFL career; however, the game has changed in 2012, as Peterson will be a shell of his former self. In Week 16 last season (December 24th to be exact), Peterson injured his left knee, tearing both his ACL and MCL. Major leg injuries and RBs do not mix, and it takes time (typically two full years from the season when the major leg injury occurred) to recover and return to their pre-injury form (see our "RB Two Year Major Injury Rule" article). You will hear strong reports from the media about Peterson out-running his teammates and the recovery looking good, but keep in mind the ACL and MCL have nothing to do with outrunning your teammates and everything to do with making quick cuts and sudden changes in direction, which are vital components to a RBs game when picking holes to attack opened by their offensive line. Speaking of offensive line, that brings us to another concern area for Peterson in 2012. For the first time in his career, Peterson will not be running behind 7 Time Pro Bowl Guard, Steve Hutchinson, who is now in Tennessee (good news for Tennessee RB Chris Johnson). Hutchinson is a monster and can open up massive holes, and those holes just won't be there for Peterson like they have been in the past with Hutchinson now gone. Last, QB Christian Ponder is no Tom Brady or Drew Brees, and it's all about focusing on shutting down the run when facing the Vikings. Not the best of news as far as help for a RB recovering from a major injury with a compromised offensive line.
RBs Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are just 2 of 16 key fantasy football busts and sleepers picks for your 2011 fantasy football draft. The complete list, along with our Draft Advisor Software, Overall Rankings (450+), In-depth Projections, Player Profiles (300+), Draft Magazine, and more are included in our 2012 Total Draft Package, which and can be purchased for just $11.95. Everything is updated each and every week to account for injuries, trades, and depth-chart adjustments that occur during the NFL Preseason.