2011 Fantasy Football Busts

Dwayne Bowe had a career year last year. Not as in a career year thus far, but as in a career year period. The problem with career years is that they happen only once in a career. No thanks to Bowe's career year last season, his Average Draft Position (ADP) this season is way too high. Folks are looking at those 15 TDs last season and thinking they just can't wait to get those in 2011. The problem is they aren't. In the entire history of the NFL, there has only been ONE player that has had a 15 TD season and followed it with at least that many TDs the very next season (Jerry Rice in '86 and '87). Think of all the great WRs that have played in the NFL, and only Rice, who is arguably the best WR of all time did it, and he was only able to do it once in his career in back to back seasons. At that time, he also played for one of the most potent offenses in the history of the league with one of the best QBs in the history of the league throwing him the ball. Needless to say, Matt Cassel isn't going to be confused with Joe Montana anytime soon, and Dwayne Bowe isn't going to be confused with Jerry Rice anytime soon. To make matters worse, the Chiefs lost their Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis in the off-season. Weis joined the Chiefs prior to the start of the 2010 season, reuniting himself with QB Matt Cassel when they both were in New England at the same positions. Now Weis has moved on to serve as OC for the University of Florida and replaced by new OC Bill Muir. Muir served as OL coach for KC in 2009 - 2010 and OC for Tampa Bay from 2002 - 2008. In short, there is no real continuity or traceability to the legacy of Weis outside of a single season last year. Now Matt Cassel and company have to learn their third offense in as many years. This is particularly tough for QBs and WRs, which are very dependent on precise timing and a deep understanding of the playbook. A slight miscue can translate to a pick six and tension on the sideline. Toss in the ever present possibility of a drug suspension, meltdown with his coaching staff, or issues with dropped passes, and Bowe is a prime candidate to fall short of current expectations.

Running backs can often be compared to a fine tuned sports car. In such an apt analogy, abusive driving conditions will eventually cause a failure. The typical types of abuse on RBs' bodies come in the form of too many carries in a season or an excessive increase in production. In our article, The Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production, we document multiple cases of where these two conditions have preceded a steep decline in fantasy production as individual indicators. When both conditions exist in the same player, a breakdown is almost a guarantee. Entering 2011, our #1 concern in terms of ill effects from a large 2010 workload is Mendenhall, who had a whopping 385 carries last season (324 regular season + 61 playoff carries). We usually denote the 370+ mark as a regular season number. However, Mendenhall still had to take the abuse of over 370 carries due to his insanely large playoff workload. To make matters worse, he also experienced a big increase in workload, going from 242 regular season carries in 2009 to 324 regular season carries in 2010. That is an increase of 34% (not including the playoffs), which fails our 33% increase in carries criteria as well. To make matters EVEN worse, Mendenhall was accumulating these carries into 2011 thanks to his team's run to the Super Bowl. This means he has had even less time to let his body recover. There is even a chance that his own QB will hurt his fantasy value. The Steelers have the easiest Passing Strength of Schedule in the NFL, so it will not be necessary for the team to use Mendenhall as much. Why would the Steelers bust through a brick wall when the front door is standing wide open? The Steelers will be able to run away from their opponents on their QBs able arm. As we approach the end of August, Mendenhall's Average Draft Position (ADP) is as the 7th best RB and the 9th best player overall. We have him over twice as far down in our RB rankings. He still has value as the workhorse of a run-oriented team, but there are many other options you should be casting your lot with before Mendenhall.