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Buffalo WR Sammy Watkins is one of our 2016 Fantasy Football Busts
DANGER!! Buffalo WR Sammy Watkins is overrated for 2016
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Fantasy Football Busts

Dangerous fantasy football busts in your 2016 draft

Fantasy football busts can definitely hamper your fantasy football draft and put you squarely behind the eight-ball all season long, particularly if they involved an early round selection in your draft. A "bust" is simply a pick that underperforms his anticipated value as perceived by the masses from Fantasy Football Mock Drafts; however, just because a player is listed as a "bust" doesn't mean that player is undraftable, it just means that player needs to be taken much later in your draft than their current Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.

Some of the Docs' past fantasy football busts include:

2015: RB DeMarco Murray (Preseason Top 10)
2014: WR Reggie Wayne & WR Cordarrelle Patterson
2013: WR Greg Jennings & WR Percy Harvin
2012: WR Laurent Robinson
2011: RB Knowshon Moreno & RB Rashard Mendenhall (Preseason Top 10)
2010: RB C.J. Spiller & RB Kevin Smith
2009: RB Michael Turner (Preseason Top 5) & QB Matt Cassel
2008: QB Vince Young
2007: RB Larry Johnson (Preseason Top 5) & QB Eli Manning
2006: RB Edgerrin James
2005: QB Donovan McNabb

These are not your typical fantasy football busts. These were highly regarded players that cost a pretty penny in fantasy football drafts for their respective year. Drafting a player that does not support their high draft price can crush your fantasy season and put you behind the 8-ball all season long.

Once again, the Docs have crunched the numbers and uncovered numerical trends that increase the odds of predicting players that will be fantasy football busts during the 2016 season. A list of those players along with detailed commentary providing insight regarding why these players are considered fantasy football busts is provided below. Each of these players bring high risk to the table and stand a significant chance of not having as successful of a 2016 fantasy football season as their previous 2015 performance (and current draft value) would indicate. Enough with the talk, let's get to our 2016 fantasy football busts:

Click the link below to check out the Docs' 2016 sleepers:
Fantasy Football Sleepers

For more information on what is meant by "Fantasy Football Busts" or "Average Draft Position", click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).

  Player Type: BUST Team Position
  Sammy Watkins BUF WR

Watkins is starting the 2016 NFL season off on the wrong foot! Watkins had foot surgery in May this year to repair a stress fracture in his left foot. Watkins really wants to compete for his team, so he was out and running on his repaired foot the first week of July. The problem is that this quick return could spell a re-injury for Watkins. Don't get us wrong. Watkins is a tremendous talent. He is a beast that has the skills to be as good as any WR in the NFL. The issue is that he has been plagued by injuries in both the pros and at Clemson. In 2011, he hurt his right shoulder against Wake Forest and sat out against North Carolina State. In 2012, he got knocked out in the second play of the Chick-fil-A Bowl. In 2015, he sprained an ankle on his left foot that caused him to miss the next two games. Later in 2015, he had to get a tear in his hip labrum fixed. Then, we have this most recent foot surgery that was on the same leg where he hurt his ankle last season. That is a lot of injuries in a 5 year span with many of those causing him to miss time. If you get past the injuries, then you are still stuck with a cruddy Bills offense. The Bills were 31st in the league for passing attempts with only the Minnesota Vikings throwing less passes. While Tyrod Taylor is an exciting player, it is hard to have any confidence in WRs that play for Rex Ryan. In thhe past 4 years, Ryan led teams have finished 31st, 27th, 29th, and 25th in passing attempts. Ryan just doesn't call an offense that airs it out. This limits Watkins' upside substantially. When you combine the injury risk with the lack of targets, you get a risk player at the 18th WR overall. In the 3rd round of a 12 team league, you can still get better players to load your roster. Until the Bills get Watkins a better passing QB and an offensive scheme that lets him explode, he will continue to disappoint on his immense promise. While you root for Watkins to get over his injury woes, it is hard to look past them in the 3rd round. Those same injury bugs are the ones that caused Watkins to only get 978 yards and 5 TDs in 2012. That year ultra-talented Watkins was blown away by his teammate, DeAndre Hopkins.

  Player Type: BUST Team Position
  Dion Lewis NWE WR

(8/21/16 UPDATE: Yet another one of our busts flopping before the season starts. Lewis is going to have another surgery on his knee. For those that have already drafted and capitalized on him being one of our busts by avoiding him well after his average draft value - congratulations on passing on an overvalued pick). Lewis is going in leagues and that is just wrong. The 4th round is too early for a Patriots back that will drive you mad based on New England's weekly game plan and Lewis' tendancy to get banged up. On November 8th, Lewis suffered a torn ACL. Our ultimate classic article on "RB 2 Year Major Injury Rule" highlights the troubles that RBs have when trying to return from a significant injury. The ACL is one of those significant things that can be devastating for a RB to come back from. Considering that Lewis injured his knee late in the 2015 season, you are being very optimistic that he will return to the form that made him a 2015 breakout player. The only recent players that have been able to return from an ACL injury were Jamall Charles and Adrian Peterson in 2012. Several players have failed over the past 10 years: Duece McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower, Rashard Mendenhall (x2), Knowshon Moreno, and Stevan Ridley. Charles and Peterson are rare examples, and Lewis is not the same caliber of an athlete as them. Lewis hasn't played in more than 9 games in a season since his rookie season. He missed the entire 2013 with a fractured fibula. He was signed by the Colts in 2014, but then he was cut by the Colts. It is bad enough when you get cut, but when you get cut by a team that can't find a starting RB to save their life, you have hit rock bottom. To Lewis' credit, he got signed by the Patriots and made a big impact for the team. However, his natural talent cannot escape his injury history. The Patriots have produced very few elite RB options because they are not committed to the run game, but they are committed to changing their game plan based on matchups. These are the rankings of the top RB for the Patriots over the Bill Belichick reign since Corey Dillon roamed the backfield: 29, 44, 29, 10, 24, 15, 29, 28, and 25. Lewis' average draft position is as the 20th RB off the board. There have only been 2 NE RB finishes out of 9 that have returned value on that pick of 20. The Patriots just don't commit to the RB enough to trust someone with Lewis' history of injuries.

WR Sammy Watkins and RB Dion Lewis are just 2 of 16 key fantasy football busts and sleepers picks for your fantasy football draft. The complete list, along with our exclusive Draft Advisor Software, Overall Rankings (450+), In-depth Projections, Player Profiles (300+), offensive line rankings (run and pass), and more are included in our 2016 Total Draft Package, which and can be purchased for just $11.95. Everything is updated each and every week to account for injuries, trades, and depth-chart adjustments that occur during the NFL Preseason. Just click on the button below to get access today!

What are fantasy football busts?
Fantasy football busts are players that significantly underperform their average draft position. In short, if you are unfortunate enough to select a bad, "bust" pick, you landed a player that yielded much lower production than otherwise anticipated prior to the NFL season. Consequently, you want to select any "bust picks" much later than their Average Draft Position (ADP), if at all.

What is "Average Draft Position" (ADP)?
Average Draft Position is an indicator of when a player could be selected based on the average of hundreds of drafts completed by various fantasy football leagues and mock drafts. This is very helpful information when evaluating potential fantasy football busts. For those that are interested, checkout our article,
Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, for direct access to free resources containing mock draft and ADP information for the upcoming fantasy football season.

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