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Knowshon Moreno is one of our 2014 Fantasy Football Busts
"There's nothing to cheer about if you pay too high a price for Moreno in your draft." (Icon SMI)

Fantasy Football Busts

Dangerous fantasy football busts in your 2014 draft

Fantasy football busts can definitely hamper your fantasy football draft and put you squarely behind the eight-ball all season long, particularly if they involved an early round selection in your draft. A "bust" is simply a pick that underperforms his anticipated value as perceived by the masses from Fantasy Football Mock Drafts; however, just because a player is listed as a "bust" doesn't mean that player is undraftable, it just means that player needs to be taken much later in your draft than their current Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests.

Some of the Docs' past fantasy football busts include:

2013: WR Greg Jennings & WR Percy Harvin
2012: WR Laurent Robinson
2011: RB Knowshon Moreno & RB Rashard Mendenhall (Preseason top 10)
2010: RB C.J. Spiller & RB Kevin Smith
2009: RB Michael Turner (Preseason top 5) & QB Matt Cassel
2008: QB Vince Young
2007: RB Larry Johnson (Preseason top 5) & QB Eli Manning
2006: RB Edgerrin James
2005: QB Donovan McNabb

These are not your typical fantasy football busts. These were highly regarded players that cost a pretty penny in fantasy football drafts for their respective year. Drafting a player that does not support their high draft price can crush your fantasy season and put you behind the 8-ball all season long.

Once again, the Docs have crunched the numbers and uncovered numerical trends that increase the odds of predicting players that will be fantasy football busts during the 2014 season. A list of those players along with detailed commentary providing insight regarding why these players are considered fantasy football busts is provided below. Each of these players bring high risk to the table and stand a significant chance of not having as successful of a 2014 fantasy football season as their previous 2012 performance (and current draft value) would indicate. Enough with the talk, let's get to our 2014 fantasy football busts:

Click the link below to check out the Docs' 2014 sleepers:
Fantasy Football Sleepers

For more information on what is meant by "Fantasy Football Busts" or "Average Draft Position", click here (or read the information located at the bottom of this article).

  Player Type: BUST Team Position
  Knowshon Moreno MIA RB

Moreno was not in favor with the coaches coming into the 2013 season, but he had a monster Fantasy effort. Moreno answered this challenge with 1,038 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs, 548 yards receiving, and 3 more receiving TDs. Those are great numbers in any scoring format. As a result, Moreno finished as the 5th best RB and the 7th best player in Fantasy. Now Moreno has parlayed that season into a contract with the Dolphins. The problem is that Moreno has struggled to keep in shape over the course of his career. He has a history or "partying a little too hard." The worse news is that he is going to South Beach. If you have someone with a tendency to have a little too much fun on the town, South Beach is like giving a box of matches to a pyromaniac. Along the lines of Moreno's partying, he reportedly showed up to the Dolphins' camp out of shape. Finally, Moreno had to undergo knee surgery in late June. While Moreno is expected to be ready for the start of the season, you have to wonder how he is getting back in shape if he is rehabbing his knee. Moreno should be ready for the regular season, so you can still feel free to draft him. However, you had better not pay for last year's production. Moreno was helped tremendously by Peyton Manning having the greatest QB season of all time. You have to assume that when a RB with good hands is playing beside the greatest QB season in history that this RB will have a great year. Moreno played in all 16 games in 2013, but that was the first time he has done that since his rookie season in 2009. Moreno has an injury history to help work against him returning his current ADP value of 41. People have already started to realize that Moreno is trouble because his ADP has dropped about 10 places among the RBs. While Ryan Tannehill is a promising young QB, you can't expect him to be as effective as Peyton Manning was last year. In addition, the Dolphins offensive line lost one of its cornerstones in Mike Pouncey at Center. All things considered, 2013 looks more like a career year for Moreno than a trend. You can own him, but you better get a great deal.

  Player Type: BUST Team Position
  Wes Welker DEN WR

You may ask, what's not to like about a celebrated WR playing in the best offense in the NFL with the best QB in the game? Concussions, that's what. You won't hear any arguments out of us regarding Welker's ability as an elite WR. He is a human vacuum that sucks up any ball thrown near him, and he is lightning-quick to help get separation from defenders. At only 5'9" / 190 lbs, Welker is well undersized for his position. However, due to his God given ability and incredible drive to be the best, Welker has proven to be a decorated WR, which includes 5 trips to the Pro Bowl. While that same internal drive has been a true asset for him all these years, it is now going to be his Achilles' heel in a post-concussion world. Concussions are very poorly understood animals. The problem with a concussion is that once you suffer one, you can suffer subsequent concussions on much lesser hits. That's a real problem when playing a full contact sport such as football with 300 lbs defensive ends looking to clean your clock on every play. And that's a real problem for a player like Welker, who can't help but give 110% on every play. He is hard wired to play hard. When you watch game tape with Welker on it, he jumps off the page with his work ethic and drive on every snap. He never takes a play off, and when it is his responsibility to block, he lays completely out to take his defender out of the play. In short, he makes a full contact sport an uber full contact sport. And again, given his history with concussions, that is just not going to work. Furthermore, we've made it this far without even discussing the heightened sensitivity the NFL has to concussions and brain trauma these days. Lawsuits are being filed left and right by former players and their families, and the NFL is under intense scrutiny for its approach to player safety. Even if Welker deems himself OK to play, the NFL may step in and say no due to external pressure applied from existing litigation. The odds are against Welker, and he doesn't warrant his current ADP in the 5th rd of a 10 team league. There's a place for Welker in your draft, just not that early.

RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Wes Welker are just 2 of 16 key fantasy football busts and sleepers picks for your 2014 fantasy football draft. The complete list, along with our Draft Advisor Software, Overall Rankings (450+), In-depth Projections, Player Profiles (300+), Draft Magazine, and more are included in our 2014 Total Draft Package, which and can be purchased for just $11.95. Everything is updated each and every week to account for injuries, trades, and depth-chart adjustments that occur during the NFL Preseason. Just click on the button below to get access today!

What are fantasy football busts?
Fantasy football busts are players that significantly underperform their average draft position. In short, if you are unfortunate enough to select a bad, "bust" pick, you landed a player that yielded much lower production than otherwise anticipated prior to the NFL season. Consequently, you want to select any "bust picks" much later than their Average Draft Position (ADP), if at all.

What is "Average Draft Position" (ADP)?
Average Draft Position is an indicator of when a player could be selected based on the average of hundreds of drafts completed by various fantasy football leagues and mock drafts. This is very helpful information when evaluating potential fantasy football busts. For those that are interested, checkout our article,
Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, for direct access to free resources containing mock draft and ADP information for the 2014 fantasy football season.

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