How to Handle NFL Rookies
in your Fantasy Football Draft

Fantasy football draft strategy

Updated: June 22, 2009
Original Release: April 28, 2003

Like clockwork, every year folks get geeked on the rookie prospects when it comes to evaluating talent and compiling player rankings for their fantasy football draft, and every year a lot of these same folks are eating a big mud pie in early December when their team is watching the fantasy playoffs from the sideline. Although it is true that at least one rookie will emerge and contribute meaningful fantasy points during the course of the season, don't just go buying rookie lottery tickets without the proper NFL rookie draft strategy. The high points of what should be considered when developing such a draft strategy is discussed below.

When should I take the "best" available rookie?
There is no easy answer to this question as it varies from person to person; however, there are few things in this world that will make you look as foolish as taking a rookie when there are still solid, perennial fantasy players available for the taking. As a general rule of thumb, avoid a rookie of any kind until you have at least three players in the stable, preferably four. Let someone else take that gamble as you accumulate more reliable players for your team. Similar to an investment portfolio, the idea here is to balance solid performance with calculated risk. When selecting a rookie, you are hoping that they will be an x-factor that will out perform all other available players with respect to fantasy team need; however, with that hope comes substantial risk, and selecting a rookie too early in your fantasy football draft could prove rather costly to your overall team success.

When the time comes, what rookie should I take?
When it comes to rookies, the question you really should ask yourself is the following: "Is the rookie a Running Back?" If the answer is yes, then probe a little further to see if that particular player is a good fit with respect to calculated risk for your fantasy team. If the answer is no, then just stop everything right there and end your rookie quest. Sure, every now and then a big label rookie player other than a RB will actually deliver, ala Randy Moss and Peyton Manning in 1998, but then again every now and then someone wins the megabucks lottery, and every now and then the sun shines on a... well, we won't go there. Since 1997, there have been a grand total of (3) QBs, (4) WRs, (1) TE, and (24) RBs that have had breakout rookie seasons. Notice that last number: Twenty-four rookie RBs have had breakout seasons since 1997. In fact, there has not been a single year since 1997 that at least one rookie RB did not have a breakout season.

To help drive that point home, let's reflect on the past 12 years with respect to NFL rookie hype (draft pick), position, and end of year performance in their rookie season:

Breakout rookie seasons are denoted in red text.

NFL Rookie Seasons Passing/Receiving Rushing Pos Year Pick Player Team Yards TD INT Yards TD QB 1997 26   Jim Druckenmiller SFO 239 1 4 -6 0 QB 1998 1   Peyton Manning IND 3739 26 28 62 0 QB 1998 2   Ryan Leaf SDG 1289 2 15 80 0 QB 1999 1   Tim Couch CLE 2447 15 13 278 1 QB 1999 2   Donovan McNabb PHI 948 8 7 313 0 QB 1999 3   Akili Smith CIN 805 2 6 114 1 QB 1999 11   Daunte Culpepper MIN 0 0 0 6 0 QB 2000 18   Chad Pennington NYJ 67 1 0 0 0 QB 2001 1   Michael Vick ATL 785 2 3 300 1 QB 2002 1   David Carr HOU 2592 9 15 279 3 QB 2002 3   Joey Harrington DET 2294 12 16 4 0 QB 2003 1   Carson Palmer CIN 2897 18 18 47 1 QB 2003 7   Byron Leftwich JAX 2819 14 16 108 2 QB 2004 1   Eli Manning NYG 1043 6 9 35 0 QB 2004 4   Philip Rivers SDG 33 1 0 -5 0 QB 2004 11   Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2621 17 11 144 1 QB 2005 1   Alex Smith SFO 875 1 11 103 0 QB 2005 24   Aaron Rodgers GRB 65 0 1 7 0 QB 2006 3   Vince Young TEN 2199 12 13 552 7 QB 2006 10   Matt Leinart ARI 377 11 12 49 2 QB 2006 11   Jay Cutler DEN 1001 9 5 18 0 QB 2007 1   JaMarcus Russell OAK 373 2 4 4 0 QB 2007 22   Brady Quinn CLE 45 0 0 21 0 QB 2008 3   Matt Ryan ATL 3440 16 11 104 1 QB 2008 18   Joe Flacco BAL 2971 14 12 180 2 QB 2009 1   Matthew Stafford DET TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD QB 2009 5   Mark Sanchez NYJ TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD                     WR 1997 7   Ike Hilliard NYG 42 0 -- 0 0 WR 1997 15   Yatil Green MIA 0 0 -- 0 0 WR 1998 16   Kevin Dyson TEN 263 2 -- 4 0 WR 1998 21   Randy Moss MIN 1313 17 -- 4 0 WR 1998 30   Marcus Nash DEN 76 0 -- 0 0 WR 1999 6   Tory Holt STL 788 6 -- 25 0 WR 1999 8   David Boston ARI 473 2 -- 0 0 WR 1999 13   Troy Edwards PIT 714 5 -- 0 0 WR 1999 32   Kevin Johnson CLE 986 8 -- -6 0 WR 2000 3   Peter Warrick CIN 592 4 -- 148 2 WR 2000 10   Travis Taylor BAL 276 3 -- 11 0 WR 2001 8   David Terrell CHI 415 4 -- 0 0 WR 2001 9   Koren Robinson SEA 536 1 -- 13 0 WR 2002 13   Donte Stallworth NOR 594 8 -- 2 0 WR 2002 19   Ashlie Lelie DEN 525 2 -- 40 0 WR 2003 2   Charles Rogers DET 243 3 -- 17 0 WR 2003 3   Andre Johnson HOU 976 4 -- -10 0 WR 2003 17   Bryant Johnson ARI 438 1 -- 0 0 WR 2003 44   Taylor Jacobs WAS 37 1 -- 0 0 WR 2003 45   Bethel Johnson NWE 209 2 -- -12 0 WR 2003 54   Anquan Boldin ARI 1377 8 -- 40 0 WR 2004 3   Larry Fitzgerald ARI 780 8 -- 14 0 WR 2004 7   Roy Williams DET 817 8 -- 1 0 WR 2004 9   Reggie Williams JAX 268 1 -- 0 0 WR 2004 13   Lee Evans BUF 843 9 -- 85 0 WR 2004 15   Michael Clayton TAM 1193 7 -- 30 0 WR 2005 3   Braylon Edwards CLE 512 3 -- 0 0 WR 2005 7   Troy Williamson MIN 372 2 -- 28 0 WR 2005 10   Mike Williams DET 350 1 -- 0 0 WR 2006 25   Santonio Holmes PIT 824 2 -- 13 0 WR 2006 252   Marques Colston NOR 1038 8 -- 0 0 WR 2007 2   Calvin Johnson DET 756 4 -- 52 1 WR 2007 9   Ted Ginn Jr. MIA 420 2 -- 3 0 WR 2007 23   Dwayne Bowe KC 995 5 -- 0 0 WR 2008 33   Donnie Avery STL 674 3 -- 69 1 WR 2008 42   Eddie Royal DEN 980 5 -- 109 0 WR 2008 49   DeSean Jackson PHI 912 2 -- 96 1 WR 2009 7   Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD WR 2009 10   Michael Crabtree SFO TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD WR 2009 19   Jeremy Maclin PHI TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD                     TE 1997 13   Tony Gonzalez KC 368 2 -- 0 0 TE 1998 40   Cam Cleeland NOR 684 6 -- 0 0 TE 1999 42   Reggie Kelley ATL 146 0 -- 0 0 TE 2000 14   Bubba Franks GRB 363 1 -- 0 0 TE 2001 31   Todd Heap BAL 206 1 -- 0 0 TE 2002 13   Jeremy Shockey NYG 894 2 -- 0 0 TE 2003 24   Dallas Clark IND 340 1 -- 0 0 TE 2004 6   Kellen Winslow Jr. CLE 50 0 -- 0 0 TE 2005 30   Heath Miller PIT 459 6 -- 0 0 TE 2006 6   Vernon Davis SFO 265 3 -- 5 0 TE 2007 31   Greg Olsen CHI 391 2 -- 0 0 TE 2008 30   Dustin Keller NYJ 535 3 -- 0 0 TE 2009 20   Brandon Pettigrew DET TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD                     RB 1997 12   Warrick Dunn TAM 462 3 -- 978 4 RB 1997 23   Antowain Smith BUF 177 0 -- 840 8 RB 1997 36   Tiki Barber NYG 299 1 -- 511 3 RB 1997 5   Corey Dillon CIN 259 0 -- 1129 10 RB 1998 5   Curtis Enis CHI 20 0 -- 497 0 RB 1998 9   Fred Taylor JAX 421 3 -- 1223 14 RB 1998 18   Robert Edwards NWE 331 3 -- 1115 9 RB 1999 4   Edgerrin James IND 586 4 -- 1553 13 RB 1999 5   Ricky Williams MIA 172 0 -- 884 2 RB 1999 127   Olandis Gary DEN 159 0 -- 1159 7 RB 2000 5   Jamal Lewis BAL 296 0 -- 1364 6 RB 2000 7   Thomas Jones ARI 208 0 -- 373 2 RB 2000 11   Ron Dayne NYG 11 0 -- 770 5 RB 2000 19   Shaun Alexander SEA 41 0 -- 313 2 RB 2000 189   Mike Anderson DEN 169 0 -- 1487 15 RB 2001 5   LaDainian Tomlinson SDG 367 0 -- 1236 10 RB 2001 23   Deuce McAllister NOR 166 1 -- 91 1 RB 2001 27   Michael Bennett MIN 226 1 -- 682 2 RB 2001 38   Anthony Thomas CHI 178 0 -- 1183 7 RB 2001 UFA   Dominic Rhodes IND 224 0 -- 1104 9 RB 2002 16   William Green CLE 113 0 -- 887 6 RB 2002 18   T.J. Duckett ATL 61 0 -- 507 4 RB 2002 34   DeShaun Foster CAR 0 0 -- 0 0 RB 2002 51   Clinton Portis DEN 364 2 -- 1508 15 RB 2003 23   Willis McGahee BUF 169* 0* -- 1128* 13* RB 2003 27   Larry Johnson KC 2 0 -- 85 1 RB 2003 101   Domanick Williams (Davis) HOU 351 0 -- 1031 8 RB 2004 24   Steven Jackson STL 189 0 -- 673 4 RB 2004 26   Chris Perry CIN 33 0 -- 1 0 RB 2004 30   Kevin Jones DET 180 1 -- 1133 5 RB 2005 2   Ronnie Brown MIA 232 1 -- 907 4 RB 2005 4   Cedric Benson CHI 3 0 -- 272 0 RB 2005 5   Cadillac Williams TAM 81 0 -- 1178 6 RB 2006 2   Reggie Bush NOR 742 2 -- 565 6 RB 2006 21   Laurence Maroney NWE 194 1 -- 745 6 RB 2006 27   DeAngelo Williams CAR 313 1 -- 501 1 RB 2006 30   Joseph Addai IND 325 1 -- 1081 7 RB 2006 45   LenDale White TEN 60 0 -- 244 0 RB 2006 60   Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 436 2 -- 941 13 RB 2007 7   Adrian Peterson MIN 268 1 -- 1341 12 RB 2007 12   Marshawn Lynch BUF 184 0 -- 1115 7 RB 2008 4   Darren McFadden OAK 285 0 -- 499 4 RB 2008 13   Jonathan Stewart CAR 47 0 -- 836 10 RB 2008 22   Felix Jones DAL 10 0 -- 266 3 RB 2008 23   Rashard Mendenhall PIT 17 0 -- 58 0 RB 2008 24   Chris Johnson TEN 260 1 -- 1228 9 RB 2008 44   Matt Forte CHI 477 4 -- 1238 8 RB 2008 55   Ray Rice BAL 273 0 -- 454 0 RB 2008 64   Kevin Smith DET 286 0 -- 976 8 RB 2008 89   Steve Slaton HOU 377 1 -- 1282 9 RB 2009 12   Knowshon Moreno DEN TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD RB 2009 27   Donald Brown IND TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD RB 2009 31   Chris Wells ARI TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD RB 2009 53   LeSean McCoy PHI TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

* McGahee was drafted knowing he was injured in 2003 and unable to play until 2004. These stats are from 2004.

Why do rookie RBs seemingly have a fantasy advantage in their first year?
In a word: transition. The transition from a top notch college running back to a good NFL running back is not as demanding as for the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end positions. For a QB and WR in particular, timing is everything. A player must install confidence in his respective QB or WR that he will be able to deliver for a particular play. It is not good enough for a rookie QB or WR to be able throw a good ball or have good hands; they must be able to execute, run crisp routes, and hit their spots with precision. NFL secondaries are very unforgiving. A slight mistake either way and a WR is either blowing snot bubbles or the QB is watching a defensive back take it for six the other way. Quite to the contrary, in many instances it is good enough for a rookie RB to just rely heavily on God-given athletic ability alone. The handoff from QB to RB isn't exactly rocket science, although it does take a little work to get the timing down. Secondly, the hogs up front control the line of scrimmage and at times can will a rookie RB into the endzone. The only real problems with rookie RBs are fumbles and blocking responsibility. The former can be the Achilles heal of rookie RBs and earn them some quality time on the pine, whereas the latter can be addressed relatively easily by just replacing the rookie with a savvy veteran on passing downs and long yardage conversions. Although the speed of the NFL will make the transition from the college level difficult for any position, the probability of a stellar college player immediately having a significant impact on the NFL is easiest for the RB position.

After looking at the above statistics, it becomes painfully obvious that drafting rookies is a very risky business (even for RBs - while there are some very tempting morsels out there looking at the data after the fact, there are also plenty of duds that cost high fantasy football draft picks and had horrendous fantasy football seasons in their rookie year... like Curtis Enis, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Shaun Alexander, Michael Bennett, Larry Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, and others). The earlier you take a chance on a NFL rookie in your fantasy football draft, the bigger the hit your team will take if you are wrong and they don't pan out - which they can do in a very big, crush-your-season way. However, when it does time to draft a rookie, it needs to be a RB. It is very clear that rookie RBs have a distinct fantasy advantage for success in their first year in the NFL. Since 1997, at least one stud rookie RB has emerged every year to be a major fantasy force. For a complete list of rookies for the upcoming season, check out our article, NFL Rookies & Commentary.

There is a time and a place to take a chance on a rookie in your fantasy football draft, but it is important to use some discretion, stick to your rookie draft strategy, and above all else: Don't fall prey to media hype.