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How to Handle NFL Rookies in your Fantasy Football Draft
Fantasy football draft strategy
Updated: August 12, 2011
Original Release: April 28, 2003
Rookie RB Mark Ingram is one of several headline NFL rookies making their debut in 2011. Running behind the best offensive line in the NFL and a perfect fit for the Saints' offensive system, Ingram has an outstanding opportunity to make a big splash in 2011 (For a complete list of NFL rookies for the upcoming
season, check out our article, NFL Rookies & Commentary). What do the numbers say? What NFL rookies should you target in your fantasy football draft? In this article, the Docs answer these questions to help stack the fantasy football odds in your favor on your fantasy football draft day.
Like clockwork, every year folks get geeked on the rookie prospects when it comes to evaluating talent and compiling player rankings for their fantasy
football draft, and every year a lot of these same folks are eating a big mud pie in early December when their team is watching the
fantasy playoffs from the sideline. Although it is true that at least one rookie will emerge and contribute meaningful fantasy points
during the course of the season, don't just go buying rookie lottery tickets without the proper NFL rookie draft strategy. The high points of what
should be considered when developing such a draft strategy is discussed below, and this is reflected in our
fantasy football projections.
When should I take the "best" available rookie?
There is no easy answer to this question as it varies from person to person; however, there are few things in this world that will make
you look as foolish as taking a rookie when there are still solid, perennial fantasy players available for the taking. While there can be exceptions, as a general
rule of thumb, avoid a rookie of any kind until you have at least three players in the stable, preferably four. Let someone else
take that gamble as you accumulate more reliable players for your team. Similar to an investment portfolio, the idea here is to balance
solid performance with calculated risk. When selecting a rookie, you are hoping that they will be an x-factor that will out perform
all other available players with respect to fantasy team need; however, with that hope comes substantial risk, and selecting a rookie
too early in your fantasy football draft could prove rather costly to your overall team success.
When the time comes, what rookie should I take?
When it comes to rookies, the question you really should ask yourself is the following: "Is the rookie a Running Back?" If the answer is yes,
then probe a little further to see if that particular player is a good fit with respect to calculated risk for your fantasy team.
If the answer is no, then just stop everything right there and end your rookie quest. Sure, every now and then a big label rookie
player other than a RB will actually deliver, ala Randy Moss and Peyton Manning in 1998, but then again every now and then someone wins the megabucks
lottery, and every now and then the sun shines on a... well, we won't go there. Since 1997, there have been a grand total of (4) QBs, (4) WRs,
(2) TE, and (26) RBs that have had breakout rookie seasons. Notice that last number: Twenty-six rookie RBs have had breakout seasons since 1997. In fact, since 1997, there has only been one year (2010) that at least one rookie RB did not have a breakout season.
To help drive that point home, let's reflect on the past 14 years with respect to NFL rookie hype (draft pick), position, and end of year performance in their rookie season:
Breakout rookie seasons are denoted in red text.
NFL Rookie Seasons
Passing/Receiving
Rushing
Pos
Year
Pick
Player
Team
Yards
TD
INT
Yards
TD
QB
1997
26
Jim Druckenmiller
SFO
239
1
4
-6
0
QB
1998
1
Peyton Manning
IND
3739
26
28
62
0
QB
1998
2
Ryan Leaf
SDG
1289
2
15
80
0
QB
1999
1
Tim Couch
CLE
2447
15
13
278
1
QB
1999
2
Donovan McNabb
PHI
948
8
7
313
0
QB
1999
3
Akili Smith
CIN
805
2
6
114
1
QB
1999
11
Daunte Culpepper
MIN
0
0
0
6
0
QB
2000
18
Chad Pennington
NYJ
67
1
0
0
0
QB
2001
1
Michael Vick
ATL
785
2
3
300
1
QB
2002
1
David Carr
HOU
2592
9
15
279
3
QB
2002
3
Joey Harrington
DET
2294
12
16
4
0
QB
2003
1
Carson Palmer
CIN
2897
18
18
47
1
QB
2003
7
Byron Leftwich
JAX
2819
14
16
108
2
QB
2004
1
Eli Manning
NYG
1043
6
9
35
0
QB
2004
4
Philip Rivers
SDG
33
1
0
-5
0
QB
2004
11
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
2621
17
11
144
1
QB
2005
1
Alex Smith
SFO
875
1
11
103
0
QB
2005
24
Aaron Rodgers
GRB
65
0
1
7
0
QB
2006
3
Vince Young
TEN
2199
12
13
552
7
QB
2006
10
Matt Leinart
ARI
377
11
12
49
2
QB
2006
11
Jay Cutler
DEN
1001
9
5
18
0
QB
2007
1
JaMarcus Russell
OAK
373
2
4
4
0
QB
2007
22
Brady Quinn
CLE
45
0
0
21
0
QB
2008
3
Matt Ryan
ATL
3440
16
11
104
1
QB
2008
18
Joe Flacco
BAL
2971
14
12
180
2
QB
2009
1
Matthew Stafford
DET
2267
13
20
108
2
QB
2009
5
Mark Sanchez
NYJ
2444
12
20
106
3
QB
2010
1
Sam Bradford
STL
3512
18
15
63
1
QB
2010
25
Tim Tebow
DEN
654
5
3
227
6
QB
2010
48
Jimmy Clausen
CAR
1558
3
9
57
0
WR
1997
7
Ike Hilliard
NYG
42
0
--
0
0
WR
1997
15
Yatil Green
MIA
0
0
--
0
0
WR
1998
16
Kevin Dyson
TEN
263
2
--
4
0
WR
1998
21
Randy Moss
MIN
1313
17
--
4
0
WR
1998
30
Marcus Nash
DEN
76
0
--
0
0
WR
1999
6
Tory Holt
STL
788
6
--
25
0
WR
1999
8
David Boston
ARI
473
2
--
0
0
WR
1999
13
Troy Edwards
PIT
714
5
--
0
0
WR
1999
32
Kevin Johnson
CLE
986
8
--
-6
0
WR
2000
3
Peter Warrick
CIN
592
4
--
148
2
WR
2000
10
Travis Taylor
BAL
276
3
--
11
0
WR
2001
8
David Terrell
CHI
415
4
--
0
0
WR
2001
9
Koren Robinson
SEA
536
1
--
13
0
WR
2002
13
Donte Stallworth
NOR
594
8
--
2
0
WR
2002
19
Ashlie Lelie
DEN
525
2
--
40
0
WR
2003
2
Charles Rogers
DET
243
3
--
17
0
WR
2003
3
Andre Johnson
HOU
976
4
--
-10
0
WR
2003
17
Bryant Johnson
ARI
438
1
--
0
0
WR
2003
44
Taylor Jacobs
WAS
37
1
--
0
0
WR
2003
45
Bethel Johnson
NWE
209
2
--
-12
0
WR
2003
54
Anquan Boldin
ARI
1377
8
--
40
0
WR
2004
3
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
780
8
--
14
0
WR
2004
7
Roy Williams
DET
817
8
--
1
0
WR
2004
9
Reggie Williams
JAX
268
1
--
0
0
WR
2004
13
Lee Evans
BUF
843
9
--
85
0
WR
2004
15
Michael Clayton
TAM
1193
7
--
30
0
WR
2005
3
Braylon Edwards
CLE
512
3
--
0
0
WR
2005
7
Troy Williamson
MIN
372
2
--
28
0
WR
2005
10
Mike Williams
DET
350
1
--
0
0
WR
2006
25
Santonio Holmes
PIT
824
2
--
13
0
WR
2006
252
Marques Colston
NOR
1038
8
--
0
0
WR
2007
2
Calvin Johnson
DET
756
4
--
52
1
WR
2007
9
Ted Ginn Jr.
MIA
420
2
--
3
0
WR
2007
23
Dwayne Bowe
KC
995
5
--
0
0
WR
2008
33
Donnie Avery
STL
674
3
--
69
1
WR
2008
42
Eddie Royal
DEN
980
5
--
109
0
WR
2008
49
DeSean Jackson
PHI
912
2
--
96
1
WR
2009
7
Darrius Heyward-Bey
OAK
124
1
--
19
0
WR
2009
10
Michael Crabtree
SFO
625
2
--
0
0
WR
2009
19
Jeremy Maclin
PHI
762
4
--
-7
0
WR
2010
22
Demaryius Thomas
DEN
283
2
--
0
0
WR
2010
24
Dez Bryant
DAL
561
6
--
0
0
WR
2010
36
Dexter McCluster
KC
209
1
--
71
0
WR
2010
39
Arrelious Benn
TAM
395
2
--
35
0
WR
2010
60
Golden Tate
SEA
227
0
--
4
0
TE
1997
13
Tony Gonzalez
KC
368
2
--
0
0
TE
1998
40
Cam Cleeland
NOR
684
6
--
0
0
TE
1999
42
Reggie Kelley
ATL
146
0
--
0
0
TE
2000
14
Bubba Franks
GRB
363
1
--
0
0
TE
2001
31
Todd Heap
BAL
206
1
--
0
0
TE
2002
13
Jeremy Shockey
NYG
894
2
--
0
0
TE
2003
24
Dallas Clark
IND
340
1
--
0
0
TE
2004
6
Kellen Winslow Jr.
CLE
50
0
--
0
0
TE
2005
30
Heath Miller
PIT
459
6
--
0
0
TE
2006
6
Vernon Davis
SFO
265
3
--
5
0
TE
2007
31
Greg Olsen
CHI
391
2
--
0
0
TE
2008
30
Dustin Keller
NYJ
535
3
--
0
0
TE
2009
20
Brandon Pettigrew
DET
346
2
--
0
0
TE
2010
21
Jermaine Greshman
CIN
471
4
--
0
0
TE
2010
42
Rob Gronkowski
NWE
546
10
--
0
0
RB
1997
12
Warrick Dunn
TAM
462
3
--
978
4
RB
1997
23
Antowain Smith
BUF
177
0
--
840
8
RB
1997
36
Tiki Barber
NYG
299
1
--
511
3
RB
1997
5
Corey Dillon
CIN
259
0
--
1129
10
RB
1998
5
Curtis Enis
CHI
20
0
--
497
0
RB
1998
9
Fred Taylor
JAX
421
3
--
1223
14
RB
1998
18
Robert Edwards
NWE
331
3
--
1115
9
RB
1999
4
Edgerrin James
IND
586
4
--
1553
13
RB
1999
5
Ricky Williams
MIA
172
0
--
884
2
RB
1999
127
Olandis Gary
DEN
159
0
--
1159
7
RB
2000
5
Jamal Lewis
BAL
296
0
--
1364
6
RB
2000
7
Thomas Jones
ARI
208
0
--
373
2
RB
2000
11
Ron Dayne
NYG
11
0
--
770
5
RB
2000
19
Shaun Alexander
SEA
41
0
--
313
2
RB
2000
189
Mike Anderson
DEN
169
0
--
1487
15
RB
2001
5
LaDainian Tomlinson
SDG
367
0
--
1236
10
RB
2001
23
Deuce McAllister
NOR
166
1
--
91
1
RB
2001
27
Michael Bennett
MIN
226
1
--
682
2
RB
2001
38
Anthony Thomas
CHI
178
0
--
1183
7
RB
2001
UFA
Dominic Rhodes
IND
224
0
--
1104
9
RB
2002
16
William Green
CLE
113
0
--
887
6
RB
2002
18
T.J. Duckett
ATL
61
0
--
507
4
RB
2002
34
DeShaun Foster
CAR
0
0
--
0
0
RB
2002
51
Clinton Portis
DEN
364
2
--
1508
15
RB
2003
23
Willis McGahee
BUF
169*
0*
--
1128*
13*
RB
2003
27
Larry Johnson
KC
2
0
--
85
1
RB
2003
101
Domanick Williams (Davis)
HOU
351
0
--
1031
8
RB
2004
24
Steven Jackson
STL
189
0
--
673
4
RB
2004
26
Chris Perry
CIN
33
0
--
1
0
RB
2004
30
Kevin Jones
DET
180
1
--
1133
5
RB
2005
2
Ronnie Brown
MIA
232
1
--
907
4
RB
2005
4
Cedric Benson
CHI
3
0
--
272
0
RB
2005
5
Cadillac Williams
TAM
81
0
--
1178
6
RB
2006
2
Reggie Bush
NOR
742
2
--
565
6
RB
2006
21
Laurence Maroney
NWE
194
1
--
745
6
RB
2006
27
DeAngelo Williams
CAR
313
1
--
501
1
RB
2006
30
Joseph Addai
IND
325
1
--
1081
7
RB
2006
45
LenDale White
TEN
60
0
--
244
0
RB
2006
60
Maurice Jones-Drew
JAX
436
2
--
941
13
RB
2007
7
Adrian Peterson
MIN
268
1
--
1341
12
RB
2007
12
Marshawn Lynch
BUF
184
0
--
1115
7
RB
2008
4
Darren McFadden
OAK
285
0
--
499
4
RB
2008
13
Jonathan Stewart
CAR
47
0
--
836
10
RB
2008
22
Felix Jones
DAL
10
0
--
266
3
RB
2008
23
Rashard Mendenhall
PIT
17
0
--
58
0
RB
2008
24
Chris Johnson
TEN
260
1
--
1228
9
RB
2008
44
Matt Forte
CHI
477
4
--
1238
8
RB
2008
55
Ray Rice
BAL
273
0
--
454
0
RB
2008
64
Kevin Smith
DET
286
0
--
976
8
RB
2008
89
Steve Slaton
HOU
377
1
--
1282
9
RB
2009
12
Knowshon Moreno
DEN
213
2
--
947
7
RB
2009
27
Donald Brown
IND
169
0
--
281
3
RB
2009
31
Chris Wells
ARI
143
0
--
793
7
RB
2009
53
LeSean McCoy
PHI
308
0
--
637
4
RB
2010
9
C.J. Spiller
BUF
157
1
--
283
0
RB
2010
12
Ryan Mathews
SDG
145
0
--
678
7
RB
2010
30
Jahvid Best
DET
487
2
--
555
4
RB
2010
51
Toby Gerhart
MIN
167
0
--
322
1
* McGahee was drafted knowing he was injured in 2003 and unable to play until 2004. These stats are from 2004.
Why do rookie RBs seemingly have a fantasy advantage in their first year?
In a word: transition. The transition from a top notch college running back to a good NFL running back is not as demanding as for the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end positions.
For a QB and WR in particular, timing is everything. A player must install confidence in his respective QB or WR that he will be able
to deliver for a particular play. It is not good enough for a rookie QB or WR to be able throw a good ball or have good hands; they
must be able to execute, run crisp routes, and hit their spots with precision. NFL secondaries are very unforgiving. A slight
mistake either way and a WR is either blowing snot bubbles or the QB is watching a defensive back take it for six the other way. Quite to
the contrary, in many instances it is good enough for a rookie RB to just rely heavily on God-given athletic ability alone. The
handoff from QB to RB isn't exactly rocket science, although it does take a little work to get the timing down. Secondly, the hogs
up front control the line of scrimmage and at times can will a rookie RB into the endzone. The only real problems with rookie RBs
are fumbles and blocking responsibility. The former can be the Achilles heal of rookie RBs and earn them some quality time on the
pine, whereas the latter can be addressed relatively easily by just replacing the rookie with a savvy veteran on passing downs and
long yardage conversions. Although the speed of the NFL will make the transition from the college level difficult for any position,
the probability of a stellar college player immediately having a significant impact on the NFL is easiest for the RB position.
After looking at the above statistics, it becomes painfully obvious that drafting rookies is a very risky business (even for RBs - while there are some very tempting morsels out there looking at the data after the fact, there
are also plenty of duds that cost high fantasy football draft picks and had horrendous fantasy football seasons in their rookie year... like Curtis Enis, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, C.J. Spiller, and others).
The earlier you take a chance
on a NFL rookie in your fantasy football draft, the bigger the hit your team will take if you are wrong and they don't pan out - which they can do in a very big, crush-your-season way. However, when it does time to draft a rookie, it needs to be a RB. It is very clear that rookie RBs
have a distinct fantasy advantage for success in their first year in
the NFL. Since 1997, there has only been one year (2010) that at least one rookie RB did not emerge to be a fantasy force. For a complete list of rookies for the upcoming
season, check out our article, NFL Rookies & Commentary.
There is a time and a place to take a chance on a rookie in your fantasy football draft, but it is important to use some discretion, stick
to your rookie draft strategy, and above all else: Don't fall prey to media hype.
