FootballDocs Tight End Player Rankings and Projections FAQ
Through the years, a load of folks have asked us questions on our model and method for generating the FootballDocs player rankings and projections. In an effort
to reduce some of the email volume, here are some replies to some frequently asked questions:
What do you mean by "model"?
There exists a unique, mathematical expression that would accurately predict 100% correctly every player's statistics this year. Naturally, this expression would be
composed of thousands of variables and conditional logic statements, but it does exist. Our goal is to take an engineering approach to producing a model that gets as close to that correct solution consistently every year with minimal variance.
What variables are in the Docs' model for generating player projections?
Through a careful balance of analysis and years of experience generating fantasy football rankings, statistical trends are exposed
that increase the probability of a correct outcome. Examples include but are not limited to the effect of a wide receivers' production on himself and teammates when switching teams, reversible and irreversible effects
on player performance relative to specific injury history, and maximum production relative to age and experience.
What happens after the model generates its projections?
Every projection for every player is carefully reviewed and critically discussed by the Docs on both a player by player and cumulative team by team basis. Naturally
this is a very time consuming process; however, we feel the end result produces an extremely comprehensive evaluation of player performance for the upcoming 2009 fantasy football season.
What sort of quality control checks are put into your projections and player rankings?
Beyond an intense statistical regression analysis using
ten years worth of player statistical data, extensive quality control (QC)
checks are made. We take our projections and player rankings
very seriously and are committed to delivering at an extremely high level
of quality. Examples of our QC checks include but are not limited to cross referencing
projections to historical trends based on the number of players that achieve
certain yardage thresholds each year, checking that projected team receiving
yards/TDs correspond to projected team QB passing yards/TDs, and insuring
kicker PATs agree with projected total team TDs relative to their historical kicking accuracy.
There are numerous other QC checks that are made, but they are well beyond
the scope of this reply. Furthermore, our projections and player rankings are coupled with
the latest and greatest NFL depth chart information, player news, and coaching
changes. Once all the smoke clears, a substantial amount of time and
effort is required to generate and maintain our projections and player rankings, which deliver at an extremely high level of quality.
Do you actually have advanced degrees in engineering up to the Ph.D. level?
You bet. After all, FootballDocs is "Where the Geeks meet the Gridiron."
How could a Ph.D. help in fantasy football?
Fantasy football is a game of numbers. In fact, the entire concept
of fantasy football hinges exclusively on statistics. Any credible
fantasy football media site must not only be knowledgeable on the latest
and greatest NFL news and rumors, but also be able to analyze, assimilate,
sort, and numerically predict statistics. By looking at the numbers
behind the numbers, statistical trends are exposed that increase the probability
of a correct outcome. This helps significantly stack the fantasy odds in your favor when drafting players for your fantasy football team. It is not enough to be a sports junkie.
It is not enough to be a geek who can wield a pretty mean calculator. When
it comes to fantasy football, you must be able to do both and do both well.
So ask yourself, would you go to someone other than a surgeon for open-heart
surgery? What about serious legal council from anyone other than a lawyer?
Then why would you settle for anything else than advanced engineering degrees
to the Ph.D. level for your fantasy football analysis, numerical projections, and advice?
Thanks to all for your interest and support. Enjoy the season, and above all else, have fun!
