Fantasy Football Projections FAQ
Whether new to fantasy football or a seasoned veteran, we offer a variety of responses to try to help folks understand the methodology behind our projections a little better:
What are fantasy football projections?
Fantasy football projections are predicted statistics of NFL player performance in terms of yardage and
touchdowns for the upcoming season. Cheat sheets, player rankings, and overall rankings become more credible
when fantasy football projections are provided with them.
How do fantasy football projections build quality control in player rankings?
Accurate, high-quality fantasy football projections are difficult to make (and find), and it opens the door for severe
scrutiny when offering projections with player rankings (i.e. do QB TD projections correspond to equivalent total team
WR/TE/RB receiving TD projections? Do Kicker P.A.T. projections correspond to equivalent total
team TD projections?). Thus, there is nice quality control built into rankings with fantasy football projections as it is
very easy to expose sloppy rankings (it forces a website to really think in-depth about their rankings). Most websites do not
offer projections due to the time and effort involved to do correctly and accurately. However, when available and done well, fantasy football
projections provide a powerful ally during your fantasy football draft.
How do the Docs generate their projections?
We have developed a proprietary, numerical algorithm that leverages 10 years worth of past player performance data to generate our fantasy football
projections for the upcoming season. This algorithm incorporates numerous variables that dramatically increase the probability of a correct outcome
when projecting individual player performance. Examples include but are not limited to the effect of a wide receivers' production on himself and
teammates when switching teams, reversible and irreversible effects on player performance relative to specific injury history, and maximum production relative to
age and experience.
What happens after the model generates its fantasy football projections?
Every projection for every player is carefully reviewed and critically discussed by the Docs on both a player by player and cumulative team by team basis. Naturally
this is a very time consuming process; however, we feel the end result produces an extremely comprehensive evaluation of player performance for the upcoming
2013 fantasy football season.
What sort of quality control checks are put into your fantasy football projections?
Beyond an intense statistical regression analysis using
ten years worth of player statistical data, extensive quality control (QC)
checks are made. We take our projections very seriously and are committed to delivering at an extremely high level
of quality. Examples of our QC checks include but are not limited to cross referencing
projections to historical trends based on the number of players that achieve
certain yardage thresholds each year, checking that projected team receiving
yards/TDs correspond to projected team QB passing yards/TDs, and insuring
kicker PATs agree with projected total team TDs relative to their historical kicking accuracy.
There are numerous other QC checks that are made in our fantasy football projections, but they are well beyond
the scope of this reply. Furthermore, our fantasy football projections are coupled with
the latest and greatest NFL depth chart information, player news, and coaching
changes. Once all the smoke clears, a substantial amount of time and
effort is required to generate and maintain our projections, which deliver at an extremely high level of quality.
Do you actually have advanced degrees in engineering up to the Ph.D. level?
You bet. After all, FootballDocs is "Where the Geeks meet the Gridiron."
How could a Ph.D. help with fantasy football projections?
Fantasy football is a game of numbers. In fact, the entire concept
of fantasy football hinges exclusively on statistics. Any credible
fantasy football media site must not only be knowledgeable on the latest
and greatest NFL news and rumors, but also be able to analyze, assimilate,
sort, and numerically predict statistics. By looking at the numbers
behind the numbers, statistical trends are exposed that increase the probability
of a correct outcome. This helps significantly stack the fantasy odds in your favor when drafting players for your fantasy football team. It is not enough to be a sports junkie.
It is not enough to be a geek who can wield a pretty mean calculator. When
it comes to fantasy football, you must be able to do both and do both well.
So ask yourself, would you go to someone other than a surgeon for open-heart
surgery? What about serious legal council from anyone other than a lawyer?
Then why would you settle for anything else than advanced engineering degrees
to the Ph.D. level for your fantasy football projections?
Thanks to all for your interest and continued support. Enjoy our fantasy football projections, and above all else, have fun during your draft!