Updated: May 1, 2008 Original Release: July 7, 2003
Mike has written a timeless classic that will help make you a better fantasy football player. For the seasoned veteran, it is always good to review
the fundamentals of good draft preparation. For the novice, Mike will help bring you up to speed quickly. While some of the specific players mentioned pertain to the
2004 fantasy football season and are no longer relevant in the same context in 2007, the point Mike is trying to make still comes through loud and clear.
Without further ado, here's Mike...
--the Docs
This is the most dreaded time of year for fantasy sports fans.
You are either dominating your Baseball League or you are out of contention,
so there is no reason to pay anymore attention to "America's Pastime". In either
case your little hobby for passing the time between the Superbowl and your
Fantasy Football Draft Day has lost its appeal. It's the salad before
your prime rib, the Tuesday before a long weekend. You know the good
times are coming, but they are still far enough away that it seems like it
will never get here. The draft is still weeks away. What's a Fantasy
Football Fanatic to do??
For geeks like myself the answer is simple. You do your homework.
Now is the time when you should be planning your draft strategy. What's
the difference between the guy who took Rich Gannon in the 2nd round and
the guy who took Kurt Warner in the 1st? The guy who took Faulk #1
or the guy who got Ricky Williams at #15? The guy who left the room
during commercials and the one who stayed and got a double shot of the "twins"?
(ok not sure what that has to do with Fantasy Football, but the twins just
seem to make life a little brighter, and while I'm thinking of it let's hear
it for Lisa Guerrero! Don't get me wrong, I'll miss you Melissa Starks,
but MNF just got a lot more interesting). No, it's not dumb luck, it's
preparation.
It takes major league stones to win at fantasy football along with major
homework. Dumb luck alone will not win you a league, unless you like to surround
yourself with idiots. (In which case you probably have bigger problems then
winning your league). Although a good draft does not guarantee you
Fantasy Football Supremacy, a bad one will wreck your season.
OK, so how do you do to prepare? Here are some simple things you can
do to make your fantasy football draft day a better success.
1. Project player stats and convert into
fantasy points. This one is self explanatory, but do yourself a favor and make sure you fully
understand your league's scoring system. Although top players generally remain
near the top in most fantasy scoring systems, significant distinctions in
fantasy football production can occur under different
scoring systems. (If you have trouble with this let me know and I will
find a spot for you in my league). Note from Docs: This is why we created the Draft Advisor, which generates
custom rankings based on your league's scoring system. For example, rankings in a point-per-reception league (PPR) look a WHOLE lot different than "standard leagues". Folks that have
experience in PPR know what we are talking about here.
2. Get concurrent on NFL off-season moves.
Find which players switched teams. What do you mean Terry Glenn is
on Green Bay? What happened to the Patriots?? Great, now I have two (expletive)
receivers with the same (expletive) bye week. Note from Docs: Here you go - 2008 AFC Player Movement and
2008 NFC Player Movement
3. Learn the new NFL bye weeks.
(Very important, see previous comment under item #2).
4. Note defensive matchups in playoff weeks. Take all the information in items 1 - 3 and make a list, on a computer if
you can, but paper works out ok too. On this list you separate the players
by position and include Name, Team, Projected Fantasy Points and what teams
they matchup against in your playoff weeks. If your playoffs are weeks 14,
15, 16, then look for favorable matchups in those weeks. Teams change from
one year to the next, but the doormats typically remain constant. Would
you rather have a RB that faces the likes of Arizona and Detroit (horrible defenses in 2004) in the playoffs,
or one that plays Tampa and Philly (great defenses in 2004)? Exactly! Now don't
go blowing your first round pick on Stephen Davis because he faces Arizona
and Detroit in Weeks 15 and 16. But if it's a tossup in the later rounds
between Davis and Warrick Dunn, Arizona and Detroit look much better than
Indy and Tampa. Note from Docs: Use FootballDocs RB Strength of Schedule to target favorable match-ups for RBs in your draft.
5. Participate in a fantasy football
mock draft.
Why a mock draft? Well I find it very helpful to run a mock draft as it helps
truly rank players, it gives you a solid draft strategy and if you can get
some other members of your league involved, you may get them to tip their
hand. This works especially well when you don't know when you are picking,
as guys tend to lie (imagine that) when they are naming the player they select
for their designated spot - yea pal, we really think you'll take Jake Plummer
#3. There is no better feeling than seeing a guy available at 4 or 5 that
you had ranked 1 or 2 (Let's face it, if you have a guy ranked 1 or 2 and
he is still there at 12, you are in for a long year - don't quit the day
job). You can really learn the value of a player by performing a decent mock
draft. You can project possible runs on positions, as well as potential "sleepers".
I usually draft out the first 4 rounds as they are when all the studs go.
Anything more than that is really just a crap shoot unless your name happens
to be Nostradamus.
A mock draft also gives you great draft day trade ideas. If you pick 4th
and realize that Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes will be the first three guys
picked and that odds are your man, Peyton Manning, will still be around at
8, 9, or even 10-12, trade down in round one and up in round two (and
more if you are a good negotiator). Nothing confuses
weaker fantasy football owners then draft day trades. It is a key when you
can get the guy you want later in the first round and then move up in the
second to grab a second stud. I always try at least one or two deals on draft
day as it makes it tougher for guys to remember who you previously picked,
what positions you need, and not to mention it breaks their concentration
so they pay a little less attention to what is going on in the draft. And
let's face it, is their anything better in fantasy football than trade talk?
The moral of the story is do your homework--it’s the key to success.
Note from the Docs: For those that don't know and are interested, we have a specific section in our Useful Fantasy Football Links section called FootballDocs Average Draft Position that provides links to free Average Draft Info (Position) for the
upcoming fantasy football season. Some of the sites listed also include Mock Drafts you can participate in for free. So for those folks that would like to heed some of Mike's advice, be sure to check it out and participate in a mock draft.
