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Wide Receiver Three Year Rule

Fantasy football draft strategy

Updated: June 5, 2016
Original Release: June 28, 2003

When it comes to preparing for your fantasy football draft, knowing the trends of certain positions can help you assign appropriate values to players. This article focuses on evaluating draft value for wide receivers. While running backs are crucial to your fantasy success, you probably won't be bringing home the league championship without some wide receiver help. This article focuses on evaluating draft value for wide receivers when putting together your Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings.

Unlike their running back counterparts, wide receivers as a whole are a little trickier to target during your fantasy football draft. Cleary some of the bigger household names are givens when it comes to drafting, but starting in the middle rounds of your draft, things become a little more difficult to predict with respect to which wide receivers to select. With a running back, you pretty much know what you are getting. If healthy, talented, and on the first team, a running back will produce and positively contribute to your fantasy football team regardless of whether the running back is a rookie or a seasoned veteran. However, this is not the case with a wide receiver. Talent will only get a wide receiver so far, so fast. With two, three, and even four wide receiver sets in the NFL, it is not enough to be on the first team or have experience beyond a rookie year. It is also not enough to be healthy and loaded with God-given athletic ability. There is a huge adjustment factor involved for wide receivers. Adjustments must be made to harder hitting, quicker NFL secondaries. Adjustments must be made to an entirely new playbook and routes. Adjustments must be made to a brand new quarterback that throws entirely differently than what a wide receiver was previously used to in college. In fact, one of the most critical aspects for a wide receiver is developing the trust and timing from his quarterback. Run a route wrong or be slightly off in timing against NFL caliber defenses translates to six going the other way and an upset quarterback that just got an interception he didn't deserve. A good relationship between a quarterback and wide receiver does not develop overnight. It takes time...

How much time does it take for a rookie wide receiver to adjust to the NFL?
Typically between one to three full NFL seasons with the mean, median, and mode of the data indicating two full NFL seasons. Consequently, entering their third year of NFL play is most likely when a wide receiver will blossom, hence the name of the "Wide Receiver Three Year Rule". To help drive this point home, let's examine the performance of wide receivers taken in the 1998 - 2013 NFL drafts). Under each year, statistics are given in a receiving yards / TDs format. It is important to note that many wide receivers drafted never amount to anything. To help make the tables a little more clear, only wide receivers that either eventually broke out or were selected in the first round of the NFL draft are listed.

Breakout seasons are denoted in red text..

The Numbers:

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 1998 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Kevin Dyson 16 263 / 2 658 / 4 104 / 1* 825 / 7   Randy Moss 21 1313 / 17 1413 / 11 1437 / 15 1233 / 10   Jerome Pathon 32 511 / 1 163 / 0* 646 / 3 330 / 2   Jacquez Green 34 251 / 2 791 / 3 773 / 1 402 / 1   Germaine Crowell 50 464 / 3 1338 / 7 430 / 3* 292 / 2*   Joe Jurevicius 55 146 / 0 318 / 1 272 / 1 706 / 3   Hines Ward 92 246 / 0 638 / 7 672 / 4 1003 / 4   Donald Hayes 106 62 / 0 270 / 2 926 / 3 567 / 2

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 1999 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Tory Holt 6 788 / 6 1635 / 6 1363 / 7 1302 / 4   David Boston 8 473 / 2 1156 / 7 1598 / 8 512 / 1*   Troy Edwards 13 714 / 5 215 / 0 283 / 0 157 / 2   Kevin Johnson 32 986 / 8 669 / 0 1097 / 9 703 / 4   Peerless Price 56 393 / 3 762 / 3 895 / 7 1252 / 9   Marty Booker 78 219 / 3 490 / 2 1071 / 8 1189 / 6   Donald Driver 213 31 / 1 322 / 1 167 / 1 1064 / 9

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2000 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Peter Warrick 4 592 / 4 667 / 1 606 / 6 819 / 7   Plaxico Burress 8 273 / 0 1008 / 6 1325 / 7 860 / 4   Travis Taylor 10 276 / 3 560 / 3 869 / 6 632 / 3   Sylvester Morris 21 678 / 3 Retired Retired Retired   R.J. Soward 29 154 / 1 Retired Retired Retired   Dennis Northcutt 32 422 / 0 211 / 0 601 / 5 729 / 2   Todd Pinkston 36 181 / 0 586 / 4 798 / 7 575 / 2   Jerry Porter 47 6 / 0 220 / 0 688 / 9 361 / 1   Laveranues Coles 78 370 / 1 868 / 7 1264 / 5 1204 / 6   Darrell Jackson 80 713 / 6 1081 / 8 877 / 4* 1137 / 9

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2001 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Koren Robinson 9 536 / 1 1240 / 5 896 / 4 495 / 2*   Rod Gardner 15 741 / 4 1006 / 8 600 / 5 650 / 5   Santana Moss 16 40 / 0* 433 / 4 1105 / 10 838 / 5   Freddie Mitchell 25 283 / 1 105 / 0 498 / 2 377 / 2   Reggie Wayne 30 345 / 0* 716 / 4 838 / 7 1210 / 12   Quincy Morgan 33 432 / 2 964 / 7 516 / 3 144 / 3*   Chad Ochocinco (Johnson) 36 329 / 1 1166 / 5 1355 / 10 1274 / 9   Chris Chambers 52 883 / 7 734 / 3 963 / 11 898 / 7   Steve L. Smith (CAR) 74 154 / 0 872 / 3 1110 / 7 60 / 0*   Justin McCareins 124 88 / 0* 301 / 2 813 / 7 770 / 4   T.J. Houshmandzadeh 204 228 / 0 492 / 1 0 / 0* 978 / 4

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2002 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Donte Stallworth 13 594 / 8 485 / 3* 767 / 5 945 / 7   Ashlie Lelie 19 525 / 2 628 / 2 1084 / 7 770 / 1   Javon Walker 20 319 / 1 716 / 9 1382 / 12 27 / 0*   Antonio Bryant 63 733 / 6 550 / 2 812 / 4 1009 / 4

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2003 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Charles Rogers 2 243 / 3* 0 / 0 197 / 1* Retired   Andre Johnson 3 976 / 4 1142 / 6 688 / 2* 1147 / 5   Bryant Johnson 17 438 / 1 537 / 1 432 / 1 740 / 4   Anquan Boldin 54 1377 / 8 623 / 1* 1402 / 7 1203 / 4   Nate Burleson 71 455 / 2 1006 / 9 328 / 1* 192 / 2   Kevin Curtis 74 13 / 0* 421 / 2 801 / 6 479 / 4

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2004 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Larry Fitzgerald 3 780 / 8 1409 / 10 946 / 6* 1409 / 10   Roy Williams 7 817 / 8 687 / 8* 1310 / 7 838 / 5*   Reggie Williams 7 268 / 1 445 / 0 616 / 4 629 / 10*   Lee Evans 13 843 / 9 743 / 7 1292 / 8 849 / 5   Michael Clayton 15 1193 / 7 372 / 0* 356 / 1* 301 / 0*   Michael Jenkins 29 119 / 0 508 / 3 436 / 7 532 / 4   Rashaun Woods 31 160 / 1 Retired Retired Retired   Devery Henderson 50 0 / 0* 343 / 3 745 / 5* 409 / 3   Jerricho Cotchery 108 60 / 0* 251 / 0 961 / 6 1130 / 2

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2005 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Braylon Edwards 3 512 / 3* 884 / 6 1289 / 16 873 / 3   Troy Williamson 7 372 / 2 455 / 0 240 / 1* 30 / 1*   Mike Williams 10 350 / 1 99 / 1* 90 / 0* Retired   Matt Jones 22 432 / 5 643 / 4 317 / 4* 761 / 2*   Mark Clayton 22 471 / 2 939 / 5 531 / 0 695 / 3   Roddy White 27 446 / 3 506 / 0 1202 / 6 1382 / 7   Reggie Brown 35 571 / 4 816 / 8 780 / 4 252 / 1*   Vincent Jackson 61 59 / 0* 453 / 6 623 / 3 1098 / 7

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2006 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Santonio Holmes 25 824/2* 942/8* 821/5 1248/5   Chad Jackson 36 152/3 Injured 19/0 Cut   Sinorice Moss 44 25/0* 225/0 153/2 18/1*   Greg Jennings 52 632/3 920/12 1292/9 1113/4   Brandon Marshall 119 309/2 1325/7 1265/6 1120/10   Devin Aromashodu 233 Cut 96/0* Cut 298/4   Marques Colston 252 1038/8* 1202/11* 760/5* 1074/9*

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2007 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Calvin Johnson 2 756/4* 1331/12 984/5* 1120/12*   Ted Ginn Jr. 9 420/2 790/2 454/1 163/1*   Dwayne Bowe 23 995/5 1022/7 589/4* 1162/15   Robert Meachem 27 Injured 289/3* 722/9 638/5   Craig Davis 30 188/1* 59/0* 52/0* 259/1*   Anthony Gonzalez 32 576/3* 664/4 0/0* 5/67*   Sidney Rice 44 396/4* 141/4* 1312/8 280/2*   Steve Smith 51 63/0* 574/1 1220/7 529/3*   Mike Sims-Walker 79 injured 217/0 869/7* 562/7*   Steve Breaston 142 92/0 1006/3 712/3* 718/1*

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2008 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Donnie Avery 33 674/3* 589/5 Injured 45/1*   Eddie Royal 42 980/5* 345/0* 627/3 155/1*   DeSean Jackson 49 912/2 1167/9* 1056/6* 961/4*   Mario Manningham 95 26/0 822/5* 944/9 523/4*

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2009 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Darrius Heyward-Bey 7 124/1* 366/1 975/4 606/5   Michael Crabtree 10 645/2* 741/6 874/4 1105/9   Jeremy Maclin 19 762/4* 964/10 859/5* 857/7   Percy Harvin 22 790/6* 868/5* 967/6 677/3*   Hakeem Nicks 29 790/6* 1052/11* 1192/7* 692/3*   Kenny Britt 30 701/3 775/9* 289/3* 589/4*   Mike Wallace 84 756/6* 1257/10 1198/8 836/8   Mike Thomas 107 453/1 820/4 415/1 108/1*   Brian Hartline 108 506/3 615/1 549/1 1083/1   Johnny Knox 140 527/5* 960/5 727/2 Injured

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2010 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Demaryius Thomas 22 283/2* 551/4* 1434/10 1430/14   Dez Bryant 24 561/6* 928/9* 1382/12 1233/13   Eric Decker 87 106/1* 612/8 1064/13 1288/11   Mike Williams 101 964/11 771/3 996/9 216/2*

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2011 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   A.J. Green 4 1057/7 1350/11 1426/11 1041/6*   Julio Jones 6 959/8* 1198/10 580/2* 1593/6*   Jonathan Baldwin 26 254/1* 325/1* 28/0 DNP - Waived   Torrey Smith 58 841/7 855/8 1128/4 767/11   Randall Cobb 64 375/1 954/8 433/4* 1287/12

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2012 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Justin Blackmon 5 865/5 415/1* Suspended Suspended   Michael Floyd 13 562/2 1041/5 841/6 849/6*   Kendall Wright 20 626/4* 1079/2 715/6 408/3*   A.J. Jenkins 30 0/0 130/0 93/0* 0/0   Alshon Jeffery 45 367/3* 1421/7 1133/10 807/4*   Mohamed Sanu 83 154/4 455/2 790/5 394/0   T.Y. Hilton 92 861/7 1083/5 1345/7* 1124/5   Marvin Jones 166 201/1 712/10 injured* 816/4

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

Season Statistics for Wide Receivers from 2013 NFL Draft Player Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year   Tavon Austin (total yds) 8 569/5 466/2 907/9 TBD   DeAndre Hopkins 27 802/2 1210/6 1521/11 TBD   Cordarrelle Patterson (total yds) 29 627/7 501/2 25/0 TBD   Justin Hunter 34 354/4 498/3 264/1* TBD   Robert Woods 41 587/3 699/5 552/3 TBD   Aaron Dobson 59 519/4 38/0* 141/0* TBD   Terrance Williams 74 736/5 621/8 840/3 TBD   Keenan Allen 76 1046/8 783/4* 725/4* TBD

* Indicates player missed games due to injury.

1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 8 32 34 16

While there is some scatter, the statistics indicate that the third year for NFL wide receivers often marks a season of dramatic improvement in fantasy football production. There is a fairly significant number of players that emerged in their second and fourth years, but overall the data mean (2.64 year average), median (3), and mode (3) indicate the third year is optimum (based on statistics from drafts held 1998 - 2013). This is the time when most receivers seem to finally make the transition to the NFL and install confidence in their quarterback that they will deliver as a quality receiver. For a complete list of two, three, and four year wide receiver candidates for the upcoming fantasy football season, simply click on the articles below.

Note in each of these articles, we highlight in yellow players with favorable circumstances for breakout potential in 2016:
2016 "Two Year" Wide Receivers & Commentary
2016 "Three Year" Wide Receivers & Commentary
2016 "Four Year" Wide Receivers & Commentary


When should I take players that fit the "Wide Receiver Three Year Rule"?
In the mid to late rounds of your draft. Why? Because these players aren't going to have the nice stats from the previous year to drive their fantasy value way up to justify there being any real demand for these players in the early part of your draft. They seemingly explode out of nowhere for a big year entering their third year in the NFL. Consequently, you can just start plucking these players in the mid to late rounds of your draft while other folks are distracted with kickers, washed up veterans, injured players, and even backing up their Tight Ends. For a more accurate estimation of when a particular "Three Year Wide Receiver" should be taken, refer to our Fantasy Football Mock Drafts article.