Evaluating potential sleepers and busts for
your fantasy football draft does not have to require you getting in the doghouse
with your spouse, neglecting the family dog, or displaying erratic behavior
while combing through magazines screaming there is a hidden code to be found.
In fact, there are some easy methods you can use to screen potential players
quickly to help stack the fantasy odds in your favor. In this article,
the Docs provide you with a quick reference that will empower you with a
little nugget that can help make a big difference on your fantasy football
draft day.
Although doing your homework on sleepers and busts can pay big dividends
for your team, many people do not have the time to weed through the rumors,
digest all the “coach talk”, and evaluate player performance in the preseason.
Among all the whispers and hearsay, one component that is often overlooked
is evaluating each player’s physical attributes. By simply making a
quick comparison of player height and weight, you can help screen potential
candidates to help shift the probability of a correct outcome during your
draft.
Just ask Tony Holms at Fantasy Sharks. Tony is a long time member of
the fantasy football community who is probably best known for his Prognosticator
series. Recently he has re-released a set of draft strategy articles
he originally composed in 1999 for your fantasy football reading enjoyment.
Although we don’t prescribe to everything he states in these articles, the
series is a fun read with some nice points, and you will be a better fantasy
football player for reading it. Links to the
articles are provided below:
In the series, Tony states that he is a big believer in picking players in
your fantasy football draft that fit a “mold” for height and weight at a
position. Historical data supports this as some of the best players
at each position have similar physical characteristics. Let’s face
it, you will be hard pressed to find many wide receivers less than six feet
tall with league longevity. For one, the “jump ball” is a play that
is already not an option for shorter receivers. If all things were
equal, there would be no short players in the league at receiver. However,
clearly rosters spots are won by shorter players exhibiting exceptional speed,
hands, intangibles, or any combination of the three. They take this
roster spot with a higher probability of a reduced career. Once they
lose a step, they typically lose their value, while their taller counterparts
keep sticking around in the league (ref: Keyshawn Johnson). Shorter
receivers also run the added risk of a taller counterpart emerging during
the year, which can bump them down on the depth chart or take away “favorite”
status from their quarterback.
While there are several positions that could be discussed when considering
the “mold” for a NFL player, the position of wide receiver is of particular
interest in fantasy football. Why? Typically this position can
yield some of the biggest fruit in the mid to late rounds of your draft relative
to other positions. It is a position that is often targeted by savy
fantasy football veterans as a “fill” position for their later rounds.
After all, everyone in the draft must target a position where they select
a potential starter last (hey, we all can’t have eight first round picks),
and it is common for the 2nd and 3rd (depending on league setup) wide receiver
slot to be that position.
Having said that, the Docs have compiled a quick reference that compares
the heights and weights of wide receivers in a readily available format that
lends itself to direct comparison. The first table shows a combination
of highly-valued wide receivers and historical greats that are still in the
league. All players on this list are above 6’ 0” in height. This
list is not intended to be used for anything other than a quick comparison
of physical attributes for some of the higher ranked players with some time
tested veterans (i.e. do not select Jerry Rice in the 4th round of your draft
because he is on this list!).
Table 1, Tall Veterans Plus Tall Highly Valued Receivers: Reference
PLAYER
TEAM
HEIGHT
WEIGHT
YRS. EXP.
Drew Bennett
TEN
6' 5"
206 lbs
5
Anquan Boldin
ARI
6' 1"
220 lbs
3
David Boston
MIA
6' 2"
228 lbs
6
Isaac Bruce
STL
6' 0"
188 lbs
12
Nate Burleson
MIN
6' 0"
192 lbs
3
Plaxico Burress
NYG
6' 5"
226 lbs
6
Michael Clayton
TAM
6' 3"
197 lbs
2
Donald Driver
GRB
6' 0"
192 lbs
7
Marvin Harrison
IND
6' 0"
175 lbs
10
Torry Holt
STL
6' 0"
190 lbs
7
Joe Horn
NOR
6' 1"
213 lbs
10
Darrell Jackson
SEA
6' 0"
201 lbs
6
Andre Johnson
HOU
6' 3"
219 lbs
3
Chad Johnson
CIN
6' 1"
192 lbs
5
Keyshawn Johnson
DAL
6' 4"
214 lbs
10
Eddie Kennison
KAN
6' 1"
201 lbs
10
Ashley Lelie
DEN
6' 3"
200 lbs
4
Keenan McCardell
SDG
6' 1"
191 lbs
14
Randy Moss
OAK
6' 4"
210 lbs
8
Eric Moulds
BUF
6' 2"
210 lbs
10
Muhsin Muhammad
CHI
6' 2"
217 lbs
10
Terrell Owens
PHI
6' 3"
226 lbs
10
Jerry Porter
OAK
6' 2"
220 lbs
6
Jerry Rice
DEN
6' 2"
200 lbs
21
Marcus Robinson
MIN
6' 3"
215 lbs
9
Jimmy Smith
JAX
6' 1"
208 lbs
13
Rod Smith
DEN
6' 0"
200 lbs
11
Amani Toomer
NYG
6' 3"
208 lbs
10
Hines Ward
PIT
6' 0"
215 lbs
8
Javon Walker
GRB
6' 3"
215 lbs
4
Reggie Wayne
IND
6' 0"
198 lbs
5
Roy Williams
DET
6' 2"
212 lbs
2
The second table demonstrates a list of candidates to target for your mid-to-late
rounds of your draft. For each tier of receivers in your player rankings, the list is intended
to provide that extra nugget of information to perhaps sway your decision
to select a player with better potential for a good season. (Player tiers for your particular fantasy football scoring system can be found by using the FootballDocs Draft Advisor). All
players on this list are not as highly valued by the general fantasy football community, less experienced, and over 6’ 0” in height. These players provide good targets for mid-to-late round selection. Place a star next to the names
of each of these players in your rankings:
Table 2, Tall Receivers but "Young": Place a little star next to their names
PLAYER
TEAM
HEIGHT
WEIGHT
YRS. EXP.
Tyrone Calico
TEN
6' 4"
215 lbs
3
Braylon Edwards
CLE
6' 3"
208 lbs
Rookie
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
6' 3"
223 lbs
2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
CIN
6' 1"
197 lbs
5
Randy Hymes
BAL
6' 3"
211 lbs
4
Michael Jenkins
ATL
6' 4"
217 lbs
2
Matt Jones
JAX
6' 6"
237 lbs
Rookie
Brandon Lloyd
SFO
6' 0"
192 lbs
3
Justin McCareins
NYJ
6' 2"
215 lbs
5
Clarence Moore
BAL
6' 6"
211 lbs
2
Charles Rogers
DET
6' 3"
208 lbs
2
Donte Stallworth
NOR
6' 0"
196 lbs
4
Kelley Washington
CIN
6' 3"
218 lbs
3
Mike Williams
DET
6' 4"
233 lbs
Rookie
Troy Williamson
MIN
6' 2"
200 lbs
Rookie
Rashaun Woods
SFO
6' 2"
202 lbs
2
The third table exhibits players that are considered to have value and have had
successful seasons and/or demonstrated great potential in the past, but they
are all below 6’ 0” in height. Clearly some of these players will indeed
have a good season, but the odds say more will have a bad season than good
when compared to their taller, higher valued counterparts. Place a
minus next to the names of each of these players in your rankings:
Table 3, Short Receivers with "Value": Place a little minus next to their names (Proceed with Caution)
PLAYER
TEAM
HEIGHT
WEIGHT
YRS. EXP.
Deion Branch
NWE
5' 9"
193 lbs
4
Chris Chambers
MIA
5' 11"
210 lbs
5
Kerry Colbert
CAR
5' 10"
193 lbs
2
Laveranues Coles
NYJ
5' 11"
193 lbs
6
Lee Evans
BUF
5' 10"
197 lbs
2
Derrick Mason
BAL
5' 10"
190 lbs
9
Shaun McDonald
STL
5' 10"
183 lbs
3
Santana Moss
WAS
5' 10"
185 lbs
5
David Patten
WAS
5' 10"
190 lbs
9
Antwaan Randle El
PIT
5' 10"
192 lbs
4
Josh Reed
BUF
5' 10"
208 lbs
4
Steve Smith
CAR
5' 9"
197 lbs
5
Brandon Stokely
IND
5' 11"
197 lbs
7
Finally, the fourth table provides players to just flat-out avoid.
These receivers are either short rookies or short veterans cast to the wayside.
The odds are stacked heavily against these players having an impact year.
Cross out these names on your draft list.
Table 4, Short Receivers with Little Value: Cross these players off your list
PLAYER
TEAM
HEIGHT
WEIGHT
YRS. EXP.
Mark Clayton
BAL
5' 11"
187 lbs
Rookie
Peerless Price
TBD
5' 11"
190 lbs
7
Peter Warrick
TBD
5' 11"
192 lbs
6
Drafting taller receivers and thinking carefully before selecting shorter
receivers does not guarantee success; however, it does help tip the scales
in your favor. It will help reduce some of the risk in your fantasy
football portfolio and perhaps leave you with a pleasant surprise-pick sleeper
that will help put your team over the top.
