When it comes to preparing for your draft, knowing the trends of certain positions can help you assign appropriate values to players. The last fantasy draft preparation article posted here was an analysis of the
class. While running backs are crucial to your fantasy success, you probably won’t be bringing home the league championship without some wide receiver help.
Unlike their running back counterparts, wide receivers as a whole are a little more tricky to target during your fantasy football draft.
Cleary some of the bigger names such as Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss are no brainers when it comes to drafting, but starting
in the middle rounds of your draft things become a little more difficult to predict with respect to what wide
receivers to select. With a running back, you pretty much know what you are getting. If healthy,
talented, and on the first team, a running back will produce and positively contribute to your fantasy football
team regardless of whether the running back is a rookie or a seasoned veteran . However, this is not the
case with a wide receiver. Talent will only get a wide receiver so far, so fast. With two, three, and even four wide receiver
sets, it is not enough to be on the first team or have experience beyond a rookie year. It is also not enough
to be healthy and loaded with God given athletic ability. There is
a huge adjustment factor involved for wide receivers. Adjustments
must be made to harder hitting, quicker NFL secondaries. Adjustments
must be made to an entirely new playbook and routes. Adjustments must
be made to a brand new quarterback that throws entirely differently than
what a wide receiver was previously used to in college. In fact, one
of the most critical aspects for a wide receiver is developing the trust
and timing from his quarterback. Run a route wrong or be slightly off
in timing against NFL caliber defenses translates into six going the other
way and an upset quarterback that just got an interception he didn’t deserve.
A good relationship between a quarterback and wide receiver does not develop
overnight. It takes time...
How much time does it take for a wide receiver to adjust to the NFL?
Typically two full NFL seasons. Consequently, entering their third year of NFL
play is when a wide receiver will blossom, hence the name of the “Three Year Wide Receiver Rule”.
Sometimes it can take a long as three full NFL seasons and as little as one full NFL season, but outside
of very few select players it rarely happens in a wide receiver’s rookie season. To help drive home
this point, let’s examine the performance of wide receivers taken in the 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 NFL drafts.
Under each year, stats are given in a receiving yards/TDs format. Stats in red indicate a breakout
year (note not all players listed have had a breakout year).
1998 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Kevin Dyson
|
16
|
263/2
|
658/4
|
104/1*
|
825/7
|
Randy Moss
|
21
|
1313/17
|
1413/11
|
1437/15
|
1233/10
|
Jerome
Pathon
|
32
|
511/1
|
163/0*
|
646/3
|
330/2
|
Jacquez
Green
|
34
|
251/2
|
791/3
|
773/1
|
402/1
|
Germane
Crowell
|
50
|
464/3
|
1338/7
|
430/3*
|
289/2*
|
Joe Jurevicius
|
55
|
146/0
|
318/1
|
272/1
|
706/3
|
Donald
Hayes
|
106
|
62/0
|
270/2
|
926/3
|
567/2
|
* indicates player
missed games due to injury
1999 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Torry Holt
|
6
|
788/6
|
1635/6
|
1363/7
|
1302/4
|
David Boston
|
8
|
473/2
|
1156/7
|
1598/8
|
512/1*
|
Troy Edwards
|
13
|
714/5
|
215/0
|
283/0
|
157/2
|
Kevin Johnson
|
32
|
986/8
|
669/0
|
1097/9
|
703/4
|
Peerless
Price
|
56
|
393/3
|
762/3
|
895/7
|
1252/9
|
Marty Booker
|
78
|
219/3
|
490/2
|
1071/8
|
1189/6
|
Donald
Driver
|
213
|
31/1
|
322/1
|
167/1
|
1064/9
|
* indicates player missed
games due to injury
2000 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Peter Warrick
|
4
|
592/4
|
667/1
|
606/6
|
819/7
|
Plaxico
Burress
|
8
|
273/0
|
1008/6
|
1325/7
|
860/4
|
Travis
Taylor
|
10
|
276/3
|
560/3
|
869/6
|
632/3
|
Dennis
Northcutt
|
32
|
422/0
|
211/0
|
601/5
|
729/2
|
Todd Pinkston
|
36
|
181/0
|
586/4
|
798/7
|
575/2
|
Jerry Porter
|
47
|
6/0
|
220/0
|
688/9
|
361/1
|
Laveranues
Coles
|
78
|
370/1
|
868/7
|
1264/5
|
1204/6
|
Darrell
Jackson
|
80
|
713/6
|
1081/8
|
877/4*
|
1137/9
|
* indicates player missed
games due to injury
2001 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Koren Robinson
|
9
|
536/1
|
1240/5
|
896/4
|
495/2*
|
Rod Gardner
|
15
|
741/4
|
1006/8
|
600/5
|
650/5
|
Santana Moss
|
16
|
40/0*
|
433/4
|
1105/10
|
838/5
|
Reggie Wayne
|
30
|
345/0*
|
716/4
|
838/7
|
1210/12
|
Quincy Morgan
|
33
|
432/2
|
964/7
|
516/3
|
144/3*
|
Chad Johnson
|
36
|
329/1
|
1166/5
|
1355/10
|
1274/9
|
Chris Chambers
|
52
|
883/7
|
734/3
|
963/11
|
898/7
|
Steve Smith
|
74
|
154/0
|
872/3
|
1110/7
|
60/0*
|
Justin McCareins
|
124
|
88/0*
|
301/2
|
813/7
|
770/4
|
* indicates player missed
games due to injury
2002 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Donte' Stallworth
|
13
|
594/8
|
485/3*
|
767/5
|
945/7
|
Ashley Lelie
|
19
|
525/2
|
628/2
|
1084/7
|
770/1
|
Javon Walker
|
20
|
319/1
|
716/9
|
1382/12
|
27/0*
|
Jabar Gaffney
|
33
|
483/1
|
402/2
|
632/2
|
492/2
|
Josh Reed
|
36
|
514/2
|
588/2
|
153/0*
|
449/2
|
Tim Carter
|
46
|
37/0*
|
309/0*
|
182/1*
|
186/0*
|
Andre Davis
|
47
|
420/6
|
576/5
|
416/2*
|
190/1*
|
Reche Caldwell
|
48
|
208/3*
|
80/0*
|
310/3*
|
352/1
|
Antwaan Randle El
|
62
|
489/2
|
364/1*
|
601/3
|
558/1
|
* indicates player missed
games due to injury
2003 Draft
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Pick
|
Rookie
|
2nd
Year
|
3rd
Year
|
4th
Year
|
Charles Rogers
|
2
|
243/3*
|
DNP
|
197/1*
|
N/A
|
Andre Johnson
|
3
|
976/4
|
1142/6
|
688/2*
|
N/A
|
Bryant Johnson
|
17
|
438/1
|
537/1
|
432/1
|
N/A
|
Taylor Jacobs
|
44
|
37/1*
|
178/0
|
100/0
|
N/A
|
Bethel Johnson
|
45
|
209/2
|
174/1*
|
67/1*
|
N/A
|
Anquan Boldin
|
54
|
1377/8
|
623/1*
|
1402/7
|
186/0*
|
Tyrone Calico
|
60
|
297/4
|
13/0*
|
191/0*
|
N/A
|
Kelley Washington
|
65
|
299/4
|
378/3
|
101/1*
|
N/A
|
Nate Burleson
|
71
|
455/2
|
1006/9
|
328/1*
|
N/A
|
Kevin Curtis
|
74
|
13/0*
|
421/2
|
801/6
|
N/A
|
* indicates player missed
games due to injury
While there is some scatter, the statistics indicate that the third year for NFL WRs often marks dramatic
improvement compared to their fantasy football production from their rookie and 2nd years in the NFL. The third year in the NFL is
the time when most receivers seem to finally make the transition and install confidence in their quarterback that they will deliver as a quality receiver.
When should I take players that fit the “Three Year Wide Receiver Rule”?
In the mid to late rounds of your draft. Why? Because these players aren’t going to have the nice stats from the previous year to drive their value way up to justify there being any real demand for these players in the early part of your draft. They seemingly explode out of nowhere for a big year entering their third year in the NFL. Consequently, you can just start plucking these players in the mid to late rounds of your draft while other folks are distracted with kickers, washed up veterans, injured players, and even backing up their TEs.
Some of the best values are for WRs that have yet to breakout. WRs who had break out seasons in their second year can either improve (i.e. Plaxico Burress and Chad Johnson) or they can suffer a significant drop in production (i.e. Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Quincy Morgan). However, you will likely have to pay a higher price for these WRs because they have proven that they can do it. Other WRs that haven’t broken out yet should be available for discount prices in the later rounds (i.e. in past seasons: Travis Taylor, Dennis Northcutt, Todd Pinkston, Jerry Porter, Laveranues Coles, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chris Chambers, Steve Smith, Justin McCareins, Donte’ Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, and Javon Walker). Getting early round production from late round draft picks can make a significant difference in the success of a fantasy football season.
What Three Year WR Candidates are there in 2006 and who should I take?
For an in-depth analysis of the 2006 Three Year Wide Receiver Candidates, refer to 
