Original Release: August 17, 2004
Update: August 7, 2006
Okay fantasy football fanatics---huddle up. It’s time to re-release a FootballDocs timeless classic. In this article,
the Docs go behind the numbers to outline the running back two-year major injury rule...a
rule that should be strongly considered when evaluating your player rankings. It is also a rule that could help give your
team that winning fantasy football edge on draft day and prove to be the difference between winning and losing. Remember, the Docs are the geeks
whose life-long pursuit is to develop the most accurate fantasy football projections available. The RB Two Year Major Injury Rule
is but one of the scores of variables that are part of the Docs’ “secret sauce”, otherwise known as our predictive mathematical model used to power the Draft Advisor and FootballDocs Player Rankings.
When it comes to most fantasy football drafts, there is hardly a position in fantasy football that is more coveted than the position
of running back. With only 32 NFL teams and typically two running backs required for the start in most fantasy football leagues,
it doesn’t take long to see that quality RB’s are hot commodities on fantasy draft day. Throw in the fact that several NFL teams
support running back by committee (RBBC) offenses (offenses that fail to feature a workhorse running back and consequently distribute
the carries to several different running backs), and quality running backs can go faster than free BBQ at a NFL pre-game tailgate.
What constitutes a workhorse running back?
By “workhorse”, we mean a back that is likely to get at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 touches in a game (either directly
from a hand off or from a pass reception out of the backfield). Typically these are your household name backs--- LaDainian Tomlinson,
Shaun Alexander, and Edgerrin James to just name a few; however, they could also be “up and comers” that people feel are going
to get those kind of touches but have yet to do so in the past. Regardless, the idea here is to select a back that is slated to
be the featured back in a NFL offense, but be sure to exercise extreme caution when selecting such a back.
It is imperative to consider the leg injury history of a running back with respect to time, otherwise you may effectively pay the price
for a Lexus only to receive a Corolla.
Major injury history with respect to time?
You bet. It is not enough for a running back to be declared the feature back in an NFL offense. The back should also be two
years removed from the season when the major leg injury occurred before paying the high price of an early round pick in your fantasy football
draft. To help illustrate this point, let’s examine the numbers for running backs the year before the season they suffered a
major leg injury and then the numbers the year after returning from a major injury:
Year Proceeding Major Injury
Player
Year
Injury
Rush Yards
Rec. Yards
Total TDs
Deuce McAllister
2004
ACL
1074
228
10
Ahman Green
2004
Quad
1163
275
10
Edgerrin James
2000
ACL
1709
594
18
Jamal Lewis
2000
ACL
1364
296
6
Jamal Anderson
1998
ACL
1846
319
16
Terrell Davis
1998
ACL
2008
217
24
Garrison Hearst
1998
Leg
1570
535
9
Robert Edwards
1998
Knee
1115
331
12
Year Returning from Major Injury
Player
Year
Injury
Rush Yards
Rec. Yards
Total TDs
Deuce McAllister
2006
ACL
TBD
TBD
TBD
Ahman Green
2006
Quad
TBD
TBD
TBD
Edgerrin James
2002
ACL
989
354
3
Jamal Lewis
2002
ACL
1327
442
7
Jamal Anderson
2000
ACL
1024
382
6
Terrell Davis
2000
ACL
78
4
2
Garrison Hearst
2001
Leg
1206
347
5
Robert Edwards*
2002
Knee
107
126
2
*not a starter on return from injury
Major leg injuries and running backs do not mix, and it takes time (typically two full years from the season when the major leg injury
occurred) to recover to the pre-injury form that these backs enjoyed when punishing NFL defenses on a regular basis. Jamal Lewis
was the only back to produce numbers extremely similar (in fact, slightly better) to his pre-injury form on his first year back from a
major leg injury. There are two possible explanations that could help account for this. The first lies in the fact that Lewis
tore his ACL during the preseason in the summer of 2000, hence Lewis had longer to rehab the injury and prepare for the 2002 season when
compared to previous backs that tore their ACL during the regular season. The second possible explanation lies in the fact that Lewis
had previously torn his ACL during his sophomore year of college while playing at Tennessee; consequently, he already experienced the recovery
process and knew both physically and mentally what it would take to rehabilitate his knee and return to a high level of play. Hearst also
had one of the better years on his return (70% of his previous fantasy performance based on a standard performance scoring system), but similar
to Lewis, Hearst also had more time to rehabilitate his injury compared to other players (in fact, he had an additional year to recover).
Regardless, the overall trend illustrates that some of the best backs in the game struggled on their first year immediately returning from a major
leg injury.
Why does this RB two-year injury rule seem to exist?
In a word---hesitation. When returning to the gridiron after recovering from a significant leg injury, it is almost impossible
for a running back to not hesitate when running with the ball. Minor leg injuries such as sprains and pulled muscles can and should be expected for running
backs in the NFL, but major leg injuries such as a torn ACL can be devastating to a RB and delay their progress to returning to their
pre-injury form. The key to this immediate one-year slump lies in the function of the ACL itself. The ACL holds the femur
and tibia in place and is one of the most critical ligaments to athletes because of its primary function of stabilizing the knee joint
during deceleration. Without the ACL, players would fall to the ground due to the knee buckling when applying pressure from either
stopping or changing direction. It is only natural for a RB to be hesitant when running during the first year after an ACL injury.
Given the speed of the NFL, there is no room for there to be any kind of hesitation and still expect a running back to
put up big numbers.
By the way, for those that have endured a significant leg injury and played some ball, we’re preaching to the choir.
For those that haven’t, go talk to someone who has. Physical therapy is brutal and requires not only considerable time to “fully”
recover, but also requires tremendous determination and sheer guts. The mental anguish on a player can at times prove to be as strenuous as the physical
anguish. It is not uncommon for a player to ponder thoughts of retirement when going through this process, and it is a credit to those that made it all
the way back to be able to play at the level the NFL demands.
What RBs in 2006 should I avoid based on this rule?
While it has been a few seasons since we have seen a significant RB suffer a major injury, unfortunately in 2005, a major injury struck several key, very talented backs. First is Saints’ RB Deuce McAllister, who tore his ACL against the Packers in week 5 of the 2005 NFL season. This makes McAllister a prime candidate for a let down year in 2006 as he
rebuilds his strength and confidence to return to his pre-injury form. The situation is further complicated by RB Reggie Bush, who should and will take carries away from McCallister in the 2006 season. The second player to suffer a major leg injury was Packers RB Najeh Davenport, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the very same game as McAllister in week 5. Davenport was having a superb game
until he suffered the injury. Last, Ahman Green suffered a right quadriceps tendon rupture in week 7 against the Vikings. It is this season ending injury coupled with the season ending injury to Najeh Davenport that ultimately lead to the rise of the Nigerian Nightmare II, Samkon Gado. Similar to the situation in New Orleans, the situation in Green Bay is compounded by having three very capable backs available to play, although past history tells us
both Green and Davenport will be a shadow of their former selves during the 2006 season. Another player to keep in mind but who isn’t a classic case for this rule is RB Curtis Martin of the
Jets. Martin suffered a minor (not major) knee injury last year that required season ending arthroscopic surgery to repair. Given Martin’s age (33 years), a minor injury can have a more significant effect than a comparable injury on a
younger player, and already the injury has forced Martin to start the 2006 NFL preseason on the Physically Unable to Perform List (PUP). Veteran RB Derrick Blaylock and talented second year RB Cedric Houston are making a crowded backfield in New York, and it remains to be seen how the new
coaching staff will utilize Martin.
When it comes to your fantasy football draft this year, keep the RB two-year major injury rule in mind. These players have a place in your
fantasy draft, but not in the early rounds. Let someone else fall prey to the memories of yesterday when selecting a running back that is in his
first year returning from a major leg injury.
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