What you need to know about ACL injuries and RBs (WD / Icon SMI)
Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule
Fantasy football draft strategy
Updated: August 8, 2012
Original Release: August 17, 2004
When it comes to most fantasy football drafts, there is hardly a position in fantasy football that is more coveted than the position
of running back. With only 32 NFL teams and typically two running backs required for the start in most fantasy football leagues,
it doesn't take long to see that quality running backs are hot commodities on fantasy draft day. Throw in the fact that several NFL teams
support Running Back By Committee (RBBC) offenses (offenses that fail to feature a workhorse running back and consequently distribute
the carries and the opportunity to score fantasy points to several different running backs), and quality running backs can go faster than free BBQ at a NFL pre-game tailgate.
The importance of running backs in your draft plans is reflected in our free Fantasy Running Back Rankings.
What constitutes a workhorse running back?
By "workhorse", we mean a back that is likely to get at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 touches in a game (either directly
from a hand-off or from a pass reception out of the backfield). Typically these are your household name backs; however, they could
also be "up and comers" that people feel are going to get those kind of touches in the upcoming season but have yet to do so in the past. Regardless, the
idea here is to select a running back that is slated to be the featured back in a NFL offense, but be sure to exercise extreme caution when
selecting such a back. It is imperative to consider the leg injury history of a running back with respect to time, otherwise you may
effectively pay the price for a Mercedes only to receive a Corolla.
Major injury history with respect to time?
You bet. It is not enough for a running back to be declared the feature back in an NFL offense. The back should also be two
years removed from the season when the major leg injury occurred before paying the high price of an early round pick in your fantasy football
draft. To help illustrate this point, let's examine the numbers for running backs the year before the season they suffered a
major leg injury and then the numbers the year after returning from a major injury:
The Numbers:
First season returning from major injury resulting in a significant decline in production denoted in red text.
NFL Running Back
Player
Injury
YR Before Inj.
YR After Inj.
Team
Pos
Rush Yards
Rec. Yards
Total TD
Curt Warner
ACL
1983
--
SEA
RB
1449
325
14
ACL
--
1985
SEA
RB
1094
307
9
Terry Allen
ACL
1992
--
MIN
RB
1201
478
15
ACL
--
1994
MIN
RB
1031
148
8
Ki-Jana Carter*
ACL
1994
--
PSU
RB
1539*
Unknown
26*
ACL
--
1996
CIN
RB
264**
169**
9**
Jamal Anderson
ACL
1998
--
ATL
RB
1846
319
16
ACL
--
2000
ATL
RB
1024
382
6
Terrell Davis
ACL
1998
--
DEN
RB
2008
217
23
ACL
--
2000
DEN
RB
282
4
2
Robert Edwards
Knee Disl.
1998
--
NWE
RB
1115
331
12
Knee Disl.
--
2002
MIA
RB
107
126
2
Garrison Hearst
Leg
1998
--
SFO
RB
1570
535
9
Leg
--
2001
SFO
RB
1206
347
5
Olandis Gary
ACL
1999
--
DEN
RB
1159
159
7
ACL
--
2001
DEN
RB
228
29
1
Edgerrin James
ACL
2000
--
IND
RB
1709
594
18
ACL
--
2002
IND
RB
989
354
3
Jamal Lewis
ACL
2000
--
BAL
RB
1364
296
6
ACL
--
2002
BAL
RB
1327
442
7
Dominic Rhodes
ACL
2001
--
IND
RB
1104
224
9
ACL
--
2003
IND
RB
157
62
1
Deuce McAllister
ACL
2004
--
NOR
RB
1074
228
10
ACL
--
2006
NOR
RB
1057
198
10
LaMont Jordan
MCL
2005
--
OAK
RB
1025
563
11
MCL
--
2007
OAK
RB
549
247
3
Ronnie Brown
ACL
2006
--
MIA
RB
1008
276
5
ACL
--
2008
MIA
RB
946
254
10
Deuce McAllister
ACL
2006
--
NOR
RB
1057
198
10
ACL
--
2008
NOR
RB
418
128
6
Cadillac Williams
P. Tendon
2006
--
TAM
RB
798
196
1
P. Tendon
--
2008
TAM
RB
233
43
4
Kevin Smith
ACL
2008
--
DET
RB
976
286
8
ACL
--
2010
DET
RB
133
123
0
Jamaal Charles
ACL
2010
--
KC
RB
1467
468
8
ACL
--
2012
KC
RB
TBD
TBD
TBD
Tim Hightower
ACL
2010
--
WAS
RB
736
136
5
ACL
--
2012
WAS
RB
TBD
TBD
TBD
Rashard Mendenhall
ACL
2010
--
PIT
RB
1273
167
13
ACL
--
2012
PIT
RB
TBD
TBD
0
Knowshon Moreno
ACL
2010
--
DEN
RB
779
372
8
ACL
--
2012
DEN
RB
TBD
TBD
TBD
Adrian Peterson
ACL
2010
--
MIN
RB
1298
341
13
ACL
--
2012
MIN
RB
TBD
TBD
TBD
* Obtained while playing for Penn State. Drafted #1 overall in the 1995 NFL Draft.
** Carter tore his ACL in the 1995 NFL preseason as a rookie. Many point to this injury as the reason his NFL career flopped.
Major leg injuries and running backs do not mix, and it takes time (typically two full years from the season when the major leg injury
occurred) to recover to the pre-injury form that these backs enjoyed when punishing NFL defenses on a regular basis. Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister (first ACL tear in 2004), and Ronnie Brown
are the only running backs to produce numbers extremely similar to their pre-injury form on their first year back from a
major leg injury. For Lewis, there are two possible explanations that could help account for this. The first lies in the fact that Lewis
tore his ACL during the preseason in the summer of 2000, hence Lewis had longer to rehab the injury and prepare for the 2002 season when
compared to previous backs that tore their ACL during the regular season. The second possible explanation lies in the fact that Lewis
had previously torn his ACL during his sophomore year of college while playing at Tennessee; consequently, he already experienced the recovery
process and knew both physically and mentally what it would take to rehabilitate his knee and return to a high level of play. However, this same line of thought did not workout for McAllister, who successfully
returned to his pre-injury form the first year he returned to action from a torn ACL (2006), but not the second (2008). Asking a player to successfully return from an ACL tear in each knee is a very tall order, and it is remarkable
McAllister was able to work his way back onto the field in 2008. As for Ronnie Brown, he is the
exception to the norm as we have no concrete reason why he was able to return to his preinjury form so quickly. He did injure his knee in 2007 relatively early in the season (week 7), but
that is not early enough to consider it a significant advantage in terms of recovery time. In every data set there are always a few points outside the data band,
and Brown to his credit is one of those points.
Hearst also had one of the better years on his return (70% of his previous fantasy performance
based on a standard performance scoring system), but similar to Lewis, Hearst also had more time to rehabilitate his injury compared to other players
(in fact, he had an additional year to recover). Regardless, the overall trend illustrates that some of the best backs in the game struggled on their
first year immediately returning from a major leg injury.
Why does this RB two-year injury rule seem to exist?
In a word: hesitation. When returning to the gridiron after recovering from a significant leg injury, it is almost impossible
for a running back to not hesitate when running with the ball. Minor leg injuries such as sprains and pulled muscles can and should be expected for running
backs in the NFL, but major leg injuries such as a torn ACL can be devastating to a running back and delay their progress to returning to their
pre-injury form. The key to this immediate one-year slump lies in the function of the ACL itself. The ACL holds the femur
and tibia in place and is one of the most critical ligaments to athletes because of its primary function of stabilizing the knee joint
during deceleration. Without the ACL, players would fall to the ground due to the knee buckling when applying pressure from either
stopping or changing direction. It is only natural for a running back to be hesitant when running during the first year after an ACL injury.
Given the speed of the NFL, there is no room for there to be any kind of hesitation and still expect a running back to
put up big numbers.
By the way, for those that have endured a significant leg injury and played some ball, we're preaching to the choir.
For those that haven't, go talk to someone who has. Physical therapy is brutal and requires not only considerable time to "fully
recover", but also requires tremendous determination and sheer guts. The mental anguish on a player can at times prove to be as strenuous as the physical
anguish. It is not uncommon for a player to ponder thoughts of retirement when going through this process, and it is a credit to those that made it all
the way back to be able to play at the level the NFL demands.
When it comes to your fantasy football draft this year, keep the Running Back Two-Year Major Injury Rule in mind. These players have a place in your
fantasy football draft, but just not in the early rounds. Let someone else fall prey to the memories of yesterday when selecting a running back that is in his
first year returning from a major leg injury.
Who are candidates of concern for 2012 with respect to the "RB Two Year Major Injury Rule"?
Last season was brutal on the injury front, as we had stud RBs dropping like flies with major leg injuries. The list includes Jamaal Charles (ACL), Adrian Peterson (ACL), Rashard Mendenhall (ACL), Knowshon Moreno (ACL),
and Tim Hightower (ACL). Of these, the most significant are Peterson, Charles, and Mendenhall. Both Peterson and Mendenhall suffered their injuries very late in the year, so it has only been a few months since their injury, giving them an even more compressed timescale for recovery.
As shown above, the overwhelming odds are stacked against them in 2012, and it is hard to imagine they will produce at a level worthy of their current Average Draft Position (ADP). As for Charles, he did suffer his injury early in the 2011 season, but the Chiefs
have added Peyton "The Juggernaut" Hillis to the roster as well as suffered some more losses to their offensive line. Similar to Peterson and Mendenhall, odds are much better for Charles to be a fantasy football bust in 2012.
Want more freaky RB injury "rule-of-thumbs" to help in your fantasy football draft preparation?
Then be sure to check out our Effect of RB Carries on Future Production article as well.
