Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Fantasy Production
July 3, 2005
This article will be updated in 2007 later in the preseason; however, the information presented is timeless and worth reviewing. -- the Docs
In fantasy football, it is often difficult to predict which fantasy players will have a significant drop-off in production from one year to the next. In this article, we will analyze yet another factor that can contribute to a disappointing fantasy season, running back carries.
Running backs are one of the crucial positions in most fantasy football leagues. While running backs can provide a consistently high source of fantasy points, they are also prone to suffering a significant decrease in production after carrying the ball too many times in the preceding season. A running back’s body is a machine, and, like all machines, they can only perform their function so many times before they must be replaced by a newer version (or sent in for repair). A great measure of wear and tear for running backs is the number of carries they have in a season. The grid below lists some of the top running backs and their carries over the past few years.
Running Back Carries Per Season
Player
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
M Faulk
198
264
324
253
253
260
212
209
195
G Hearst
225
234
310
0
0
252
215
178
20
T Davis
345
369
392
67
78
167
--
--
--
J Anderson
232
290
410
19
282
55
--
--
--
E George
335
357
348
320
403
315*
343
312
132
E James
--
--
--
369
387
151
277
310
334
D Staley
--
7
258
325
79
166
269
96
192
J Bettis
320
375
316
299
355
225
187
246
250
S Davis
23
141
34
290
332
356
207
318
24
C Enis
--
--
133
287
36
--
--
--
--
D Levens
121
329
115
279
77
44
75
68
94
J Stewart
190
136
53
249
339
143
231
--
--
C Dillon
--
233
262
263
315
340
314
138
345
J Lewis
--
--
--
--
309
0
308
387
235
L Smith
153
91
138
60
309
313
210
11
--
P Holmes
--
0
233
89
137
327
313**
320
196
R Williams
--
--
--
253
248
313
383
392
0***
A Green
--
--
35
26
263
304
286
355
259
D McAllister
--
--
--
--
--
16
325
351
269
T Henry
--
--
--
--
--
213
325
331
94
F Taylor
--
--
264
159
292
30
287
345
260
Bold = Year before breakdown
Red = Was in the top 10 for carries that year Red & Bold = Was in the top 10 for carries that year & brokedown the next season.
*Eddie George was hampered by injury all year and failed to reach 1000 yds for first time in career.
**Holmes was injured before this season finished.
***Maybe Ricky Williams realized that he was due for a breakdown anyway.
Each of the running backs in the grid above has broken down at least once, and it would appear that their carries do have an effect on this noticeable drop in fantasy production. The number and/or increase of carries required for a breakdown is different for different players. A few select players (George, James, Davis, and Anderson) don't breakdown until they hit the upper 300s. Others fall off after a significant increase (Faulk, Levens, Staley, Hearst, Green, Stewart, and McAllister), even a few more took several years of heavy work loads to shut down (Bettis, Dillon, Holmes, Williams, and Henry), and some just always seem to be injured (Taylor). These breakdowns don’t necessarily have to come in the form of injury or missed games. Sometimes these breakdowns can just represent a substantial drop in fantasy production. Regardless of the cause of the breakdown, it is clear that carries can influence a running backs future fantasy production. Last year alone saw 8 out of the top 10 league leaders in carries from 2003 suffer significant drop offs in fantasy production.
Now, the key is to find out which players might be candidates for major fantasy letdowns in 2005. The grid below contains the number of carries for several of last season’s league leaders.
2004 League Leaders in Carries
Player
2001
2002
2003
2004
Curtis Martin
333
261
323
371
Rudi Johnson
--
17
215
361
Shaun Alexander
309
295
326
353
Corey Dillon
340
314
138
345
Clinton Portis
--
273
290
343
LaDainian Tomlinson
339
372
313
339
Edgerian James
151
277
310
334
Tiki Barber
166
303
278
322
Domanick Davis
--
--
238
302
Willis McGahee
--
--
0
284
Reuben Droughns
30
4
6
275
Curtis Martin and Rudi Johnson - The top two players (Martin and Johnson) on this list send up immediate red flags as potential candidates for breakdowns in 2005. From 1995 to 2003, there have been 15 players that have carried the ball more than 360 times in a season. Only 3 of them increased their number of carries in the following season. On average (excluding Ricky Williams retirement season of 2004), the number of carries in the season following the 360+ carry season were only 74% of that large carry season. This suggests that Martin and Johnson could be in for major drops in fantasy production for 2005. However, Martin is an odd case. He has carried the ball more that 360 times in 4 different seasons. If Martin’s age was not a factor, his historical performance would give us little reason for concern. Unfortunately for all of us, time and age are always a factor. Will this be the season that Martin finally breaks down? He is, after all, about the same age as Marshall Faulk and has carried the ball 527 more times than Faulk. We aren’t saying you should completely avoid drafting Martin, but you should pick up his backup Derrick Blaylock if you do decide that Curtis is “your favorite” Martin. Somehow, it would be ironic if Blaylock were to take over as the Jets running back after Lamont Jordan (now with the Raiders) waited 4 years for a Martin breakdown that never came. Johnson’s 2004 workload does concern us; however, he does have youth on his side. If you draft Johnson, it would be wise to select Chris Perry as an insurance policy in the very late rounds of your draft.
Shaun Alexander – Alexander has long been one of our favorite fantasy football performers. However, his carries should be noted when selecting him in 2005. Maurice Morris has been spoken highly of for years and would be a great insurance policy should the injury bug come calling on Mr. Alexander.
Corey Dillon – Dillon’s 2003 breakdown was a long coming one. Surprisingly, Dillon had plenty in the tank for the Patriots 2005 Super Bowl run. Dillon’s 345 carries were the most of his entire NFL career. We definitely expect less carries for Dillon in 2005, but his TD presence will probably still make him a fantasy contributor. Should Dillon go down, Cedric Cobbs would be a sneaky replacement in your fantasy line-up if he continues to develop.
Clinton Portis – Portis is another player that we have ranked lower than other fantasy sites. His injury history, large number of carries in 2004, and large increase from 2003 to 2004 make him a very risky pick in 2005. Ladell Betts is a decent option, and he is all the Redskins have to replace Portis in case of injury. If you end up with Portis, it would be wise to have Betts as well.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerian James, Tiki Barber, and Domanick Davis – All of these players posted pretty hefty rush totals in 2004. Each will have an injury risk associated with them in 2005, but we don’t think that their risks will be any greater than the average NFL starting running back. However, several of these backs have very serviceable running backs waiting in the wings, so handcuffing their backup running backs would not be a bad idea.
Check out FootballDocs 2007 Total Draft Package, which contains our top 450+ overall player rankings and in-depth projections, 300+
in-depth player profiles, 2007 Sleepers, 2007 Busts, Draft Advisor Software for custom player rankings and tier based
drafting for your league scoring format, 80+ page printable Draft Magazine, offensive line rankings (run and pass), strength of schedule
analysis (offensive run, pass, and fantasy defense, each with regular season and playoffs), and much more... everything is updated each
and every week to make sure you have the latest and greatest information and player rankings for your fantasy football draft.
