Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Fantasy Production
August 22, 2008
In fantasy football, it is often difficult to predict which fantasy players will have a significant drop-off in production from one year to the next. In this article, we will analyze yet another factor that can contribute to a disappointing fantasy season, running back carries.
Running backs are one of the crucial positions in most fantasy football leagues. While running backs can provide a consistently high source of fantasy points, they are also prone to suffering a significant decrease in production after carrying the ball too many times in the preceding season. A running back’s body is a machine, and, like all machines, they can only perform their function so many times before they must be replaced by a newer version (or sent in for repair). A great measure of wear and tear for running backs is the number of carries they have in a season. The grid below lists some of the top running backs and their carries over the past few years.
Running Back Carries Per Season
Player
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
C Portis
--
--
--
--
--
--
273
290
343
352
127
325
E James
--
--
--
369
387
151
277
310
334
360
337
324
W Parker
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
32
255
337
321
L Tomlinson
--
--
--
--
--
339
372
313
339
339
348
315
T Jones
--
--
--
--
112
112
138
137
240
314
296
310
L White
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
61
303
J Lewis
--
--
--
--
309
0
308
387
235
269
314
298
W McGahee
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
284
325
259
294
M Lynch
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
280
B Westbrook
--
--
--
--
--
--
46
117
177
156
240
278
F Gore
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
127
312
260
S Jackson
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
134
254
346
237
F Taylor
--
--
264
159
292
30
287
345
260
194
231
223
S Alexander
--
--
--
--
64
309
295
326
353
370
252
207
R Johnson
--
--
--
--
--
0
17
215
361
337
341
170
T Henry
--
--
--
--
--
213
325
331
94
88
270
167
L Johnson
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
20
120
336
416
158
C Taylor
--
--
--
--
--
--
33
63
160
117
303
157
R Droughns
--
--
--
--
--
30
4
6
275
309
220
85
A Green
--
--
35
26
263
304
286
355
259
77
266
70
P Holmes
--
0
233
89
137
327
313**
320
196
119
--
46
D McAllister
--
--
--
--
--
16
325
351
269
93
244
24
R Williams
--
--
--
253
248
313
383
392
0***
168
--
6
C Martin
316
274
369
367
316
333
261
323
371
220
--
--
D Staley
--
7
258
325
79
166
269
96
192
38
0
--
S Davis
23
141
34
290
332
356
207
318
24
180
40
--
C Dillon
--
233
262
263
315
340
314
138
345
209
199
--
T Barber
--
136
52
62
213
166
304
278
322
357
327
--
M Faulk
198
264
324
253
253
260
212
209
195
65
--
--
J Bettis
320
375
316
299
355
225
187
246
250
110
--
--
D Williams (Davis)
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
238
302
230
--
--
G Hearst
225
234
310
0
0
252
215
178
20
--
--
--
D Levens
121
329
115
279
77
44
75
68
94
--
--
--
E George
335
357
348
320
403
315*
343
312
132
--
--
--
L Smith
153
91
138
60
309
313
210
11
--
--
--
--
J Stewart
190
136
53
249
339
143
231
--
--
--
--
--
J Anderson
232
290
410
19
282
55
--
--
--
--
--
--
T Davis
345
369
392
67
78
167
--
--
--
--
--
--
C Enis
--
--
133
287
36
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Bold = Year before breakdown
Red = Was in the top 10 for carries that year Red & Bold = Was in the top 10 for carries that year & brokedown the next season.
*Eddie George was hampered by injury all year and failed to reach 1000 yds for first time in career.
**Holmes was injured before this season finished.
***Maybe Ricky Williams realized that he was due for a breakdown anyway.
Most of the running backs in the grid above have broken down at least once after a large workload in the previous season, and it would appear that their carries do have an effect on this noticeable drop in fantasy production. The number and/or increase of carries required for a breakdown is different for different players. A few select players (George, James, Davis, and Anderson) don't breakdown until they hit the upper 300s. Others fall off after a significant increase (Faulk, Levens, Staley, Hearst, Green, Stewart, and McAllister), even a few more took several years of heavy work loads to shut down (Bettis, Dillon, Holmes, Williams, and Henry), and some just always seem to be injured (Taylor). These breakdowns don’t necessarily have to come in the form of injury or missed games. Some of these “breakdowns” were because a player retired or the team added a young RB to take some of the burden off the veteran with high mileage. Even those incidences can be linked to carries because someone is putting the back on the shelf because a breakdown was inevitable. As far as a fantasy owner is concerned, a low scoring fantasy week is a low scoring fantasy week, so you need to know who is a candidate to breakdown this season?
So as you can see, there are plenty of examples of RBs breaking down over the recent history of the NFL.
Well, the NFL is taking steps to reduce the number of carries that their premiere back gets. This is evident by all of the Running Back by Committees (RBBCs) that have popped up in the NFL. Last season was one of the lowest total carries seasons for the leagues’ top RBs. The 2007 single season leader for carries, Clinton Portis, only had 325 compared to 416, 370, 371, and 392 the previous four seasons.
What does this mean? It means that running back breakdowns due to heavy work loads should be reduced in 2008. However, there are still a handful of guys with some question marks.
Clinton Portis – He lead the league with 325 carries in 2007. In fact, Portis has had a pretty steady and heavy load throughout his career. He also has been nagged by injuries from time to time. Considering those factors, Portis is the #1 candidate for a breakdown in 2008. Ladell Betts should still be on your radar as a handcuff. Low on your radar, but still there. Betts showed that he could pull the load two years ago in relief of Portis and he could do it again.
Brian Westbrook – Westbrook’s diminutive size has always been a point of contention for fantasy owners. In 2007, Westbrook didn’t break 300 carries, but he did set a career high with a 16% increase in his carries. The Eagles brought in Lorenzo Booker to help lighten the load this season, but Westbrook playing all 16 games in in doubt. Booker is a must-own for Westbrook owners in 2008.
Willie Parker – Parker is another undersized back that carried the ball a tremendous number of times in 2007. Parker missed some time due to injury at the end of 2007, but the team says that he will be ready to go in 2008. Just in case Parker breaks down again, the Steelers when out and drafted one of the top backs in the 2008 draft in Rashard Mendenhall. Parker is almost guaranteed to see a dramatic drop in production due to the presence of Mendenahall. Even if Parker doesn’t breakdown, his final numbers for 2008 could look like a breakdown when it is all said and done.
LenDale White – White only had 303 carries in 2007, but his lack of conditioning is legendary. High carries and poor work ethic could cause White to miss some time. White isn’t as big of a concern as the other three RBs listed here, but he does have a small cloud hanging over his head. Let’s just say that you shouldn’t throw away your RB list in your draft once you get White. You just might need to add some depth on your team for security.
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