"Why don't they know how to play D??"  (Jeff Lewis / Icon SMI)

Go West, Young Man!

The AFC and NFC West are wide open spaces for fantasy production

August 20, 2010

"What'chu talkin' 'bout, Docs"
Whether you play in several leagues or just want another way to dominate your league mates in 2010, you might be looking for a fresh draft strategy. This article outlines a draft strategy to draft only players in the NFC West and AFC West.

Only the Strong Survive
It is widely known that the NFC West and the AFC West are the weakest divisions in all of the NFL. You can see this by all of the favorable strength of schedule rankings for west teams in each respective division. These teams play a soft brand of defense that is visually and statically softer than the rest of the NFL. Based on last season, there was no direction better for scoring fantasy points than selecting offensive players in the West. The NFC West and AFC West allowed 31.1 more fantasy points than the league average. Only 3 teams in the West allowed less than the league average (Denver, San Francisco, and San Diego). With the loss of Mike Nolan to the Dolphins and tons of injuries, there is a strong reason to believe that Denver will not fair as well in 2010 as they did in 2009. The end result should be another great season for scoring fantasy points in the West.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Direction
Divisional Direction	Fantasy Points Allowed Above League Average
West	31.1 points
South	24.7 points
North	-15.0 points
East	-40.8 points

The West Side is the Best Side
As shown in the table above, there is a fantasy advantage gained by piling on offensive players that play in the NFC and AFC west. That doesn't mean you go overboard and reach for offensive players in these divisions well above their Average Draft Position based on Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, but this is a fun rabbit hole to explore, so let's see how deep it goes.

Only the Strong Survive
This year is a special year for this strategy because all of the NFC West teams are not only playing themselves, but they are also playing the AFC West (and vice versa). That means that each West team gets 10 out of 16 games against the West! Oh, it gets even better. The NFC West is playing the NFC South and the AFC West is playing the AFC South this year. It should be noted that the South is the second best direction for scoring fantasy points against with an average of 24.7 points allowed greater than the league average. That is another 4 games against a relatively weak direction. All in all, that only leaves 2 games out of 16 that are not against either a West or a South team!

Don't Call It a Comeback!
Finally, there is one last compelling reason to draft an all West fantasy football team. Have you ever gotten out to an early lead to see it whittled down as the second round of NFL games come on? Not if you have an "All West" Team! If all of your players are in the West, you will have a ton of late starts. Thus, it will be your team that pulls off the comebacks and not your opposition. The mental anguish this will levy on your competition cannot be underestimated. Opponents will simply dread facing your "4th quarter" roster. No fantasy lead will be safe against your squad from the Wild West until late Sunday Night!

Imagine, if you will, a team rising from the West...
OK, let's have some fun. Let's see what a hypothetical team from the West could look like if you picked at the beginning and then at the end of the 1st round. The team listed below is based on a standard 12 team league and the current ADP as of mid August.

Hypothetical "West" Rosters Picking 2nd out of 12 Picking 11th out of 12 Player Pos Round Player Pos Round Starters Starters   Philip Rivers QB 4th rd Philip Rivers QB 4th rd   Jamaal Charles RB 2nd rd Ryan Mathews RB 2nd rd   Chris Wells RB 3rd rd Justin Forsett RB 5th rd   Larry Fitzgerald WR 1st rd Larry Fitzgerald WR 1st rd   Malcom Floyd WR 6th rd Michael Crabtree WR 3rd rd   Zach Miller TE 10th rd Zach Miller TE 9th rd   San Francisco Defense D 9th rd San Francisco Defense D 10th rd   Sebastian Janikowski K 16th rd Sebastian Janikowski K 16th rd Bench Bench   Jason Campbell QB 15th rd Matt Cassel QB 13th rd   Knowshon Moreno RB 5th rd Michael Bush RB 8th rd   Michael Bush RB 7th rd Anthony Dixon RB 15th rd   Leon Washington RB 12th rd Malcom Floyd WR 6th rd   Steve Breaston WR 8th rd T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR 7th rd   Jabar Gaffney WR 11th rd Jabar Gaffney WR 11th rd   Dexter McCluster WR 13th rd Dexter McCluster WR 12th rd   Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 14th rd Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 14th rd

Closing commentary
When you look at the West, the first thing you realize is that there aren't very many top flight WRs. Well, at least there aren't many that we can see looking forward. Thus, you have to get Larry Fitzgerald. That means you end up passing on Frank Gore and Steven Jackson when picking in the 1st round using your "All West" team draft strategy.

The quarterback position is another sticky situation. If you don't get Philip Rivers, you are picking through a hot mess. Sure, there are tons of solid sleepers at QB in the West, but you want those guys as your backup. You don't want them as your starter. Thus, it was essential to get Philip Rivers in an all West Draft.

The 49ers Defense was taken in both drafts for two reasons: 1) The 49ers are the best defense in the West, and they have the best defensive strength of schedule in the West. 2) The 49ers defense was much better than the positional players you needed to take at that point in the draft.

The West is loaded with good TEs. Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis are in the top 3 of our Tight End Player Rankings. It would have been nice to add one of those players to a roster, but the limitations on the other positions conflicted with the high ADP of Gates and Davis. Thus, Zach Miller made a great value selection. Miller should have a great 2010 with Jason Campbell.

The West has a pretty good selection of RBs, so it was hard to get a fistful of them even when passing on Frank Gore and Steven Jackson.

In the end, it is probably too restrictive to handicap yourself to one direction. There just aren't enough good WRs and QBs in the West to make this strategy convenient. On the other hand, taking down your league with a strategy as wild as this one would be pretty fun.