Players like Daunte Culpepper, Muhsin Muhammad, and Antonio Gates were great all year during the 2004 season. Other players’ seasons could be broken into two separate halves; one half being significantly better than the other. In this article, we look at players’ second-halves in 2004 to find out who might be improving and who could be on the decline. The player’s Final Fantasy Rank (FFR) of 2004* is listed for reference.
In this second edition, the running backs will be explored.
RBs Hot Finish FFR(49) T. Bell - Considering the fact that Bell was limited by injuries early last season and the fact that he had only 14 rushing attempts in the first half of ’04, it is little surprise that Bell had a drastic improvement in his fantasy status in the second half of last season. During the final five games of last season, Bell posted very serviceable stats. What really gets people about Bell in 2005 is the game he had week 14. In that game, Bell racked up 123 yards on the ground and 2 TDs. With Reuben Droughns now in Cleveland, Bell is the favorite to land the Denver situation in 2005. However, nothing is ever certain in the Denver backfield, so keep an eye on this one all preseason (and during the season too). FFR(24) L. Johnson - At one point in 2004, it looked like Johnson would be lucky to just carry the water, much less carry the rock after head coach Dick Vermeil called Johnson out. However, after Priest Holmes went down with an injury and after Vermeil started to warm up to Johnson, Johnson got his shot to carry the full load with 5 weeks left in the regular season of ’04. Over those last five weeks, NO ONE scored more fantasy points than Johnson. He amassed 731 total yards and 10 TDs over those 5 weeks of fantasy fury. Priest Holmes will be returning as the Chiefs starter this season and Johnson will be returning to the back-up role. However, every Priest Holmes owner in the land had better make sure to get their hands on Johnson and they had better not wait too long. With Holmes injury history and increased age, Johnson could be a great boost to any fantasy team this season. FFR(30) J. Jones - Jones missed weeks 3-10 due to injury. In those last 7 games of ’04, Jones averaged 27.4 carries per game and rushed for 803 yards with 7 TDs. Jones will be taken relatively early in most drafts in 2005, so be ready to jump if you want “The Tuna’s” workhorse. FFR(22) N. Goings - After all of Carolina’s primary runners went down, the team turned to their fullback to prove that anyone will get yards in Carolina. We aren’t that excited about Goings’ chances in 2005. De'Shaun Foster looks like he will be healthy (we don’t think that Stephen Davis will) and the team signed a big rookie runner in Eric Shelton. All we know is that their will be lots of rushing yards in Carolina in ’05. The trick will be figuring out who will be the runner to benefit the most. FFR(21) K. Jones - Jones is one of the hottest commodities in 2005 and is now considered a first round draft pick in many scoring systems. Jones missed a few games due to injury in 2004 during the first half of the season. Jones was THE rookie running back that broke 1000 yards last season. His final totals were very impressive and he finished with a very solid effort in ’04 that we expect to carry over to ’05. Look for the Lions’ stable of talented receivers to help open up rushing lanes for this up-and-comer. FFR(36) T. Duckett - Duckett had 6 of his 8 TDs in the second half of 2004. This was the major reason for his improved 2nd half production. Duckett will play second fiddle to Dunn in 2005 unless Dunn gets injured. Duckett does have some value in TD heavy league because of his use near the goal line. In other deep leagues, he could serve as spot starts thanks to his TD vulture role with the potential to get even more fantasy numbers should Dunn go down. FFR(32) S. Jackson - Jackson is was a rookie in 2004 and posted a couple of 100+ yard efforts in the 2nd half of 2005. Jackson’s draft stock has risen in anticipation of his role in the St. Louis offense growing. Marshall Faulk is still with the Rams and will continue to be a factor. Jackson remains an interesting selection in 2005 drafts because the split between he and Faulk is unknown and the level of involvement of the running game in the Rams offense in general is unknown. FFR(5) D. Davis - Davis scored at least 1 TD in each of his last 9 games of 2004! You don’t need to say much more than that. Davis is a threat out of the backfield as well as a player with a nose for the goal line (11 of 14 TDs were scored at 6 yards or less). FFR(10) W. McGahee - McGahee scored 10 of his 13 TDs in the second half of 2004. McGahee is another back who knows how to find the end zone in short yardage (10 of his 13 TDs were from 6 yards or less). FFR(19) D. McAllister - McAllister’s ’04 campaign was slowed out of the gates with injury. Once McAllister returned to form, he posted solid numbers. McAllister looks like he will be a clear 1st round selection in 2005 fantasy drafts. FFR(7) C. Dillon - Dillon got off to a slow start with his new team in 2004, but when the temperatures started to drop, Dillon started to heat up. In the 2nd half of 2004, Dillon scored 9 of his 13 TDs. On top of those impressive TD numbers, Dillon would have probably won the rushing title if he had not sat out a week 8 match up with an injury. Dillon used to be a very inconsistent runner in Cincinnati, but the change of scenery in New England turned him into one of the most consistent fantasy backs in 2004.
Cold Finish FFR(4) C. Martin - Curtis Martin’s second half was only a little cooler than his first half. His 8 TDs in the first 8 games set the bar very high for his second half. Thus, he experienced a slight drop in production down the stretch. When thinking about drafting Martin in 2005, the major concern is that his age and number of carries will catch up to him. FFR(15) W. Dunn - Warrick Dunn did experience a drop in production in the second half of last season. We feel like that drop was due to him wearing down and Atlanta’s intentional lightening of his load so he would still be there for the team in the playoffs. Dunn scored 7 of his 9 TDs in the first half of 2004. We don’t like to see older, undersized players tail off that much at the end of the previous season. While Dunn will still be a productive back, we expect to see more carries start to go to TJ Duckett. FFR(18) T. Jones - During the first three games of last season Thomas Jones was the best back in most fantasy leagues. However, something happened week three … Rex Grossman got injured. After that, Jones was only a shell of what he had started out to be. This year Grossman is hurt again and he will miss enough of the season that you shouldn’t put him in your fantasy plans. Perhaps Kyle Orton or Jeff Blake will come to the rescue and put some pop back in the Bears offense, but we aren’t too optimistic. Chad Hutchison is listed as the starting QB for the moment, but we are extremely doubtful that he will maintain that role very long. On top of this nasty 2005 QB situation, Jones has to deal with the Bears new rookie running back Cedric Benson. Benson has yet to report to camp, so we feel certain that Jones will be the team’s starter for several weeks. Benson will eventually join the team and we expect him to overtake Jones before the end of the season. This said, Jones could be a nice late round addition to your team for depth. FFR(33) L. Suggs - The oft-injured Lee Suggs missed 6 games last year. However, they did not contribute to his drop in production during the second half because he miss 3 games in each half of the season. The main reason for Suggs drop in production in his second half was the fact that he scored his only 3 TDs in the first half of the season. Suggs is an interesting pick because he has great talent, but he will be competing for carries with Reuben Droughns and William Green. While we feel like his talent alone will beat out these two players, his fragile body gives us concern. The upside for the Browns running backs is that the team has sent the message that they will be running the ball by signing Trent Dilfer as their QB. Dilfer has never been responsible for creating a 1000 yard wide receiver. FFR(2) S. Alexander - Alexander was fantastic in 2004 and his drop in production is the result of him scoring 12 of his 20 TDs in the first 8 games. Alexander should provide his 2005 owners with another solid season. FFR(27) K. Barlow - Not only was Kevan Barlow a disappointment in 2004, he got worse as the season went on. The main contributing factor to Barlow’s drop in production was that the team got fed up with him and they started giving Maurice Hicks carries. Barlow was so terrible in 2004, that you should be able to get a good deal on him. The question you have to ask, “Is that a deal you want?” FFR(6) E. James - No need to worry about the Edge’s consistency. He did have a slight drop in production in the second half because he scored one less TD, but his numbers look worse than that because he took week 16 off against the Broncos. FFR(23) J. Lewis - Jamal Lewis’ second half of last season was a major disappointment. This was mainly the result of a sprained ankle he sustained in his week 11 game. That caused him to miss most of that game and all of the next two games. In his fourth game, he only played the first half because his team was winning by a large margin at halftime. Lewis is only 26 and should be in for a big rebound in 2005. FFR(11) C. Portis - Portis suffered a torn Pectoral muscle in the second to last game of the ’04 season. This caused him to miss part of his week 16 game and all of his week 17 game. In addition to this injury, Portis just had some terrible games in the second half of 2004. Portis’ knack for getting nicked up and his increased work load concern us. FFR(1) T. Barber - Prior to Eli Manning taking the Giants’ helm, Barber only had 1 game below 20 fantasy points in his first 9 games. In his last 7 games he 6 games below that mark. Barber is sure to still have solid yardage in 2005, but his TD production will remain in question. They have added monster-sized running back Brandon Jacobs to take some of the load off of Tiki. Jacobs could be called in for goal line duty, and that would cause Barber’s fantasy stats to drop drastically. FFR(12) A. Green - Green scored 8 of his 9 TDs in the first half of 2004. Again, we don’t like to see old running backs tail off like this. Green might rebound in 2005, but the losses to his O-line and the continued porosity of the Packers’ secondary gives us some doubt. FFR(28) M. Faulk - Two words explain Faulk’s production drop - Steven Jackson. Faulk is entering the twilight of his playing days and Jackson is the future. Faulk will still be useful in some spot duty, but we expect to see a solid season out of Jackson in 2005. FFR(26) C. Brown - Brown missed a ton of time in the second half of 2004 with various nicks and scrapes. Brown’s inability to stay healthy caused the team to sign Travis Henry. Now, the Titans backfield situation is a huge mess. Brown has the talent, but we don’t think he has the durability. FFR(37) D. Staley - Staley also missed time in the second half of ’04 due to injury. He has established a pattern of injuries and he should not be counted on as a go to RB. Add to this that he has the #1 TD vulture, Jerome Bettis, in the game playing with him and you start to get the picture. FFR(12) P. Holmes - Holmes got injured at the halfway point in 2004. At that point, he was the #1 RB in the game. With no more stats past that point in 2004, it is obvious why he had the biggest drop in production possible last season. In 2005, he will be a risky pick, but he will also come with great rewards. However, make sure you don’t miss out on Larry Johnson as Holmes’ must have handcuff.
*Final Fantasy Rank (FFR) for 2004 based on: Positional players
- Passing Touchdowns
4 points
- Passing Yards
1 point for every 20 yards passing
- Passing Interceptions
-2 points for each interception
- Passing 2-Point Conversion
2 points
- Rushing Touchdowns
6 points
- Rushing Yards
1 point for every 10 yards rushing
- Fumbles Lost
-2 points
- Rushing 2-Point Conversion
2 points
- Receiving Touchdowns
6 points
- Receiving Yards
1 point for every 10 yards receiving
- Receiving 2-Point Conversion
2 points
-Big play bonus
+2 points for TD over 40 yards
+2 points for TD over 80 yards
Team Defense / Special Teams
- Touchdowns scored
6 points
- Fumbles Recovered
2 points
- Interceptions
2 points
- Sacks
1 point
- Safeties
2 points
- Points Allowed
10 points for points allowed in the range of 0 to 0.
7 points for points allowed in the range of 1 to 3.
4 points for points allowed in the range of 4 to 13.
1 point for points allowed in the range of 14 to 20.
-1 points for points allowed in the range of 21 to 27.
-4 points for points allowed in the range of 28 to 100.
