Players like Daunte Culpepper, Muhsin Muhammad, and Antonio Gates were great all year during the 2004 season. Other players’ seasons could be broken into two separate halves; one half being significantly better than the other. In this article, we look at players’ second-halves in 2004 to find out who might be improving and who could be on the decline. The player’s Final Fantasy Rank (FFR) of 2004* is listed for reference.
In this first edition, the quarterbacks will be explored.
QBs Hot Finish FFR(23) B. Volek - It’s obvious that Volek had a hot second half in 2004. He didn’t play in 5 of the team’s first eight games. However, he was a man possessed in the second half of 2004. He will be on the bench waiting for McNair to get hurt and could be a fantasy factor if McNair should miss time again in 2005. FFR(24) B. Griese - Griese is another quarterback that didn’t get to start out of the gates in 2004. He too was able to make a solid fantasy contribution after 4 consecutive games of inactivity. If you wait to grab a quarterback and/or you are looking for a solid backup in the 2005 season, Griese could be a great value pick in this year’s fantasy football draft. FFR(31) P. Ramsey - Ramsey is another quarterback who basically only played in the second half. He had some solid starts in his last few games, but should be considered a deep sleeper only. FFR(15) K. Collins - Now we come to the most speculative quarterback coming into 2005. Collins didn’t play in the first two games of 2004, but he steadily caught on to the team’s game plan and made a solid contribution despite the change of teams prior to the 2004 season. Down the stretch in 2004, few QBs were hotter than Collins. He scored 16 TDs in the final 7 games of 2004. In 2005, Collins’ story gets even more interesting with the addition of Randy Moss, possibly one of the most talented WRs of all time. FFR(25) K. Boller - Boller is the first QB to make this list that played in all 16 games in 2004. This makes him a promising QB that should improve upon his 25th best QB finish in 2004. Boller has a healthy Jamal Lewis to run the ball and two new WRs, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. In the first half of 2004, Boller had 3 passing TDs compared to the 10 passing TDs he posted in the second half of 2004. FFR(19) C. Palmer - Palmer didn’t play in his final three games in 2004, but he managed to improve his ranking in the second half. Palmer showed steady improvement in 2004 and could be another QB that should improve upon his 2004 finish. With his established playmaker, Chad Johnson, and a fine group of supporting WRs, Palmer could be in for a breakout season.
Cold Finish FFR(16) B. Leftwich - Leftwich is a player that many expect to emerge as one of the NFL’s top new stars. He started 2004 like that prediction was about to come true. However, injury began to hamper his performance in week 8 of 2004. In his first 7 games of 2004, Leftwich scored 11 TDs, but he managed to only score 6 more times the rest of the season. If Leftwich can remain healthy in 2005, he can be a solid fantasy contributor. FFR(19) C. Pennington - Pennington missed 3 games in the second half of 2004 that greatly contributed to his drop in 2nd half production. Even when Pennington was healthy, he didn’t have many big fantasy games. His injury was much more serious than Leftwich’s and we are concerned that Pennington’s injury history will bite fantasy owners in the 2005 season. Thus, we consider him an above average risk for injury in 2005. FFR(14) D. Carr - Carr played all 16 games in 2004, and showed a substantial drop off in production down the stretch. If your league penalized for QBs getting sacked, stay away from Carr. His O-Line lets him get treated like a human piñata. Carr and the Texans need to take it to the next level offensively. The offense has plenty of weapons and could help Carr become more of a fantasy factor. FFR(9) M. Bulger - While Bulger’s production dropped off in the second half of 2004, it was mostly due to injury. Rams’ head coach, Mike Martz, is as pass happy as they come. If Bulger remains healthy in 2005, he will be a top QB. You should feel very safe with Bulger as your starting fantasy QB. FFR(5) J. Plummer - Plummer played all 16 games, but he had his two worst games of the season in his second half. Plummer may have frustrated a few owners with those back-to-back poor games last season, but he was one of the more consistent QBs in 2004 and should continue to do so in 2005. In some leagues, you may be able to steal Plummer in the middle rounds, but many fantasy football owners are very aware of Plummer’s potential after his 2004 campaign. FFR(17) J. Harrington - Five out of Harrington’s last 8 games were completely unacceptable from a fantasy perspective (and you can bet the Detroit Lions weren’t too happy about them either). In 2005, Harrington will have more pressure than anyone else in the NFL with: 3 WRs drafted in the top ten of the previous three NFL drafts to throw to, Jeff Garcia waiting in the wings for Harrington to slip, and the Lions franchise is running out of patience after missing the playoffs every season Harrington has led the team. We will not be surprised to Garcia take the field in 2005, so be very wary of drafting Harrington as your starting QB.
*Final Fantasy Rank (FFR) for 2004 based on: Positional players
- Passing Touchdowns
4 points
- Passing Yards
1 point for every 20 yards passing
- Passing Interceptions
-2 points for each interception
- Passing 2-Point Conversion
2 points
- Rushing Touchdowns
6 points
- Rushing Yards
1 point for every 10 yards rushing
- Fumbles Lost
-2 points
- Rushing 2-Point Conversion
2 points
- Receiving Touchdowns
6 points
- Receiving Yards
1 point for every 10 yards receiving
- Receiving 2-Point Conversion
2 points
-Big play bonus
+2 points for TD over 40 yards
+2 points for TD over 80 yards
Team Defense / Special Teams
- Touchdowns scored
6 points
- Fumbles Recovered
2 points
- Interceptions
2 points
- Sacks
1 point
- Safeties
2 points
- Points Allowed
10 points for points allowed in the range of 0 to 0.
7 points for points allowed in the range of 1 to 3.
4 points for points allowed in the range of 4 to 13.
1 point for points allowed in the range of 14 to 20.
-1 points for points allowed in the range of 21 to 27.
-4 points for points allowed in the range of 28 to 100.
