2010 Fantasy Football Busts

The NFL can be a cruel world, and almost as fast as Kevin Smith emerged on the scene he is already starting to fade away. Drafted just two years ago in the 3rd round of the 2008 NFL Draft, Smith already had one foot out the door by signing with the Lions. Detroit has struggled for many years, and they just don't have the personnel in place to really help Smith. Despite this lack of help, Smith still managed to nearly gain 1,000 yards in his rookie year and finished with a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. Smith was on pace to finish the 2009 season with similar numbers to his 2008 year, but he suffered a major setback late in the season with an ACL tear. While his ACL surgery went well and he is expected to return this year, as noted in our classic Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule article, it typically takes two full years from the season when the major leg injury to recover to the pre-injury form. In short, major leg injuries and running backs do not mix. Detroit's management also made life a little tougher on Smith by drafting RB Jahvid Best from California in the first round (30th overall). Best is an explosive, hold-your-breath type back that could outright take over the job from Smith if he isn't careful. While Detroit appears to be getting better for the first time in several years, they still have some work to do before removing the label as a team for fantasy death. You are already going out on a limb by taking a RB from Detroit, but to take a RB from Detroit returning just a few months after a major leg injury and in all likelihood will be in a Running-Back-By-Committee (RBBC) situation is unthinkable. However, there will be fantasy owners that will do it and go ahead and draft Smith. In fact, we suspect Smith's draft stock will slowly increase as the preseason progresses and reports regarding the health of his knee come back positive. Do not take this bait. While you may think it couldn't hurt to grab Smith in your late rounds when there are seemingly no decent players left, we would beg to differ. Take a shot and roll the dice on one of our sleepers, where circumstances are more favorable for an impact year.

Spiller is the high-profile rookie running back that will get everyone excited in their fantasy football drafts. Coming out of Clemson with a highlight reel that could stretch the United States from coast to coast, Spiller was the corvette of the draft. Even though the Bills were loaded at RB with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, they couldn't resist the siren song of Spiller. Rather than addressing draft needs, the Bills chose to ignore the white elephants to land Spiller. Now Spiller joins an organization that has arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league, and one of the more suspect offensive lines in the entire league. It is awfully hard to get yards as a RB when the defense not only can cue in on you, but also has no problem getting to you. That is exactly what Spiller faces in 2010. As if that wasn't bad enough, Spiller isn't even the only show in town. The aforementioned Jackson and Lynch are very talented, and the Bills will have a tough time justifying not giving them the ball on occasion. That leaves us with one of the nastiest situations one can imagine for their fantasy RB: Mediocre to bad offensive line? Check. Bad QB? Check. Massive Running-Back-By-Committee (RBBC)? Check. Three strikes and you're out, and unfortunately Spiller has three strikes against him this season. The situation also has the potential to get worse. Spiller was well known in college to be an electric return man in the kicking game. It is very possible given Spiller's talent coupled with the depth at RB the Bills possess that they decide to give Spiller a shot at returning kicks too. Unfortunately in many fantasy systems, kick return points are awarded to the team defense rather than the individual. As such, this potential situation could only do one of two things for Spiller: (1) increase his probability to get hurt or (2) delay his time of getting on the field due to needing a breather on the sideline from a long return. Buffalo is fast on its way to being the new Detroit, particularly after the solid draft the Lions had in 2010. If that turns out to be the case, it means to stay clear of Buffalo players during your draft, starting with Spiller.