A bad bust pick can definitely hamper your draft and put you squarely behind
the eight-ball all season long, particularly if the pick involved an early
round selection. As for what is meant by a “bust”, it is simply a pick that underperforms his
anticipated 2007 value as perceived by the masses (Average Draft Position); however, just because a player is listed as a "bust"
doesn't mean that player is undraftable. There does come a time and a place for these players in your fantasy football draft, just not nearly as high
as their Average Draft Position would indicate. We put a load of work into our analysis for our projected "busts" and
ultimately want to empower you with some of our recommendations and reasoning.
At the end of the day it is all about risk management. The players we've selected as "busts"
bring high risk to the table and stand a much better chance of not having as successful
of a 2007 fantasy football season as their previous 2006 performance and current ADP would indicate.
For more information on what is meant by a fantasy football “bust”, “Average Draft Position”,
or how our projected busted picks are determined in the FootballDocs Player Rankings
and Projections, click here (or read the information located at the bottom of
this article).
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers - BUST
Nay-o, Nay-ay-ay-o. Draft-day come
and you wanna' no Delhomme. Nay, we say nay, we say nay, we say nay,
we say nay, we say Draft-day come and you wanna' no Delhomme. The honeymoon
is officially over for the Louisiana native. Once the bright eyed,
talented QB everyone came to know and love for his risk taking and remarkable
throws, Delhomme has come to the end of his rope with the CAR front office.
At 32 years of age and troubled with injuries last year, the Panthers became
concerned with Delhomme’s future and immediately starting looking for a younger
QB to push him. Preliminary discussions were started with Joey Harrington;
however, as soon as QB David Carr became available, CAR ended those discussions
and swooped in, adding Carr to their roster. Carr, who was the #1 overall
pick for HOU in the 2002 NFL Draft, has been forced up to this point in his
career to play behind the worst pass blocking line in the NFL. In fact,
Carr has spent more time laying on his back and looking up at the sky than
having a chance to look downfield to find open receivers. He is a definite
wild card that now joins a team with a very, very good pass-blocking offensive
line. Meanwhile, Delhomme has enjoyed playing behind this line.
The only problem is that his production and health has been slipping since
his remarkable 2004 season. Furthermore, what is missing on the stat
line for Delhomme is the type of INT he has thrown. There are QBs out
there that have thrown for more aggregate INTs than Delhomme; however, Delhomme
has thrown several INTs over the past couple of years that have come at or
near the goal line. This will crush a team. He will be on a very
short leash, and it won’t take very much at all for the fans and coaching
staff to become restless to see what Carr can do. Now there may be
a few of you getting restless about Steve Smtih. In a word: Don’t.
Smith is a talent, and it really doesn’t matter who throws him the ball.
Both Delhomme and Carr are battle tested QBs, so the concern over Smith’s
production is little to none in the event of a switch.
Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - BUST
Before we
start a revolution by listing LJ as a bust, read this entire section and
bear in mind the definition of bust. A bust is a player whose draft
position does not warrant his year-end production. Johnson is a rare
talent and one of only a handful of premier backs in this league. In
any other situation than the circumstances entering 2007, he would warrant
consideration right behind Tomlinson as the second overall pick in fantasy
football. However, the circumstances surrounding Johnson entering 2007
are concerning enough to let him slide. There will be folks that will
pull the trigger on Johnson at #2, and some may even take him #1. We
want to make sure folks subscribing to this package are not one of those
folks. Let someone else take that risk. Anywhere from the late first round on is
fair game for LJ in most fantasy football scoring systems (if you take this advice, that means LJ won't be on your team as his average draft position is #4). Anything
higher and you simply take-on too much risk relative to other, available
options in 2007. So enough with the legalities, time to dish out the
bad news for Johnson for the upcoming season. At the top of our list
is his 2006 workload. Johnson set the all-time single season rushing
attempt mark in NFL history last year with 416 attempts. Anything over
350 carries starts to make us nervous. Anything over 375, and we are
very, very concerned. Get over 400 attempts and we basically write
you off. Set an NFL rushing attempt record, and there just isn’t enough
Maalox to settle our stomachs (Please read “Effect of RB Carries on Future
Production” in our Article Archive). Second, Johnson had to adjust
last year to the loss of 11-time Pro-Bowl T Willie Roaf and 2-time Pro-Bowl
blocking FB Tony Richardson. This year he now has to adjust to the
loss of 11-time Pro-Bowl G Will Shields, which is the final straw that will
probably break the camel’s back. Toss in the fact he lost veteran QB
Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes has returned, and consider the bad blood from LJ threatening to hold-out due
to contract disputes, and things don’t look good in 2007.
RB Larry Johnson and QB Jake Delhomme are just one of sixteen key sleeper & bust picks the Docs have in store for the 2007 fantasy football season. The remaining 15 picks
are included in our Total Draft Package, which is updated each and every week to give you the latest and greatest fantasy football rankings, projections, and draft information on the web. The Total Draft Package also includes our unique draft software for custom rankings and
custom tier based drafting for your league scoring system, as well as our 80+ page magazine, which is also updated every week with the latest information and rankings. Click on the link
below for more information:
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Did we mention we offer a load more content than a typical fantasy football magazine?
Top 450+ overall projections? 300+ in-depth player profiles? 80+ page printable magazine? Offensive line rankings (both run and pass blocking)? Strength of
schedule analysis? Sleepers & Busts? So go ahead, see what proven Ph.D. know-how can do for you in your 2007 fantasy football draft...
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What is a fantasy football “bust” pick?
A “bust” is a player that significantly underperforms their average draft
position. In short, if you are unfortunate enough to select a bad “busted”
pick, you landed a player that yielded much lower production
than otherwise anticipated prior to the NFL season (ref: RB Edgerrin James in 2006). Consequently, you want to select any “busted picks” much
later than their Average Draft Position (ADP).
What is “Average Draft Position”?
Average Draft Position is an indicator of when a player should be selected
based on the average of hundreds of drafts completed by various fantasy football
leagues and mock drafts. For those that don’t know and are interested,
FootballDocs Average Draft Position provides links to free Average Draft Info (Position) for the
2007 fantasy football season.
How do you determine a “busted” player?
Well, there is a ton of analysis, research, and historical reference that goes into why one player has a higher probability
of having a disasterous year than another. The idea of this article
is to bring some attention to certain players and list supporting facts as
to why they make a strong case as a busted pick. At the end of the
day, it’s your call. We just want to empower you with some facts to
consider when evaluating talent as possible busted picks for your fantasy football draft.
