Gut Busters - Players you might want to avoid during your 2006 fantasy football draft.
July 20, 2006
After you have filled your head with loads of knowledge and think you are ready to draft your 2006 fantasy roster, you might have to abandon your rankings from time to time and go with your gut. In this article, we highlight several players that could be huge busts based on their average draft position (ADP obtained from averaging thousands of 2006 mock drafts and assuming a 10 team, standard performance league at Ant Sports as of 7-16-2006).
Edgerrin James, RB, ARI (ADP: 6th overall) – James finished last season as the 5th best RB, and that is just about where he is being drafted early on in this fantasy football season. We are drawing a line in the sand right here. James will not finish the 2006 season as the 6th best RB. There is always the chance we will have to eat those words, but there are a few factors that point to a Nostradamus prediction. First, James was playing for arguably the best QB in the NFL, Peyton Manning, who could draw the attention of the opposing defense. This allowed James to operate more freely. Manning is also a bit of an iron man since he hasn’t missed a game in his career. Kurt Warner is a great guy, but no iron man, and he is one concussion away from being knocked out of the season. Second, the Colts also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and the Cardinals have one of the worst. We know that fantasy football is all about the skill players, but to ignore this crucial fact would be a fallacy. The O-line is earning a paycheck, and they are crucial to the success of a RB. Finally, James has a load of mileage on his tires. He has carried the ball 2,188 times over 7 years (one of those seasons was only 6 games thanks to some of this mileage taking a toll on him). To sum it up, the 6th pick in your draft is too high of a price to pay for this RB.
Koren Robinson, WR, MIN (ADP: 94th overall) – Robinson had a great sophomore season with the Seahawks in 2002 with 1,296 yards of total offense and 5 TDs. To put those numbers in perspective, they would have netted Robinson enough fantasy points in a standard high performance scoring league to finish as the 13th best fantasy WR last year (i.e. Donald Driver range). Those types of numbers would certainly knock the socks off of any perspective 2006 owner of Robinson. However, he hasn’t played in all 16 games since that season and his yards per season have gone down each year since then. In his past two seasons, he has averaged only 421 yards and 2 TDs per season. Those numbers compare well to the numbers of Troy Brown and Josh Reed of 2005. These are clearly not the type of numbers that will blow you away. While he is expected to improve, he is not worth the 94th overall selection. We think that Robinson will improve on last years’ numbers and that he will, in fact, come close to his second best year of all time with 718 total yards of offense and 4 TDs. However, those numbers do not warrant the equivalent of an early 10th round pick. Not when, according to the ADP, players like Muhsin Muhammad, who was the #1 WR in fantasy 2 years ago, brought in 750 yards and 4 TDs with Kyle Orton as his QB for much of 2005. Also, Eddie Kennison averaged 1,018 total yards and 5 TDs over the past 4 seasons, and Donte Stallworth averaged 709 total yards and nearly 6 TDs over the past 4 seasons. All of these players are available instead of Robinson. Robinson also is a bit of a risk thanks to the collection of WRs in Minnesota (Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, and Troy Williamson). Robinson’s well documented trouble with alcohol doesn’t help things either. There have even been some rumors that he has fallen off the wagon again in this off-season. In closing, Robinson had one big game in 2005, and he has too many question marks to be selected in the 10th round of a standard 10 team draft.
Nate Burleson, WR, SEA (ADP: 81st overall) – According to Burleson’s current ADP, he is scheduled to be the 1st pick of the 9th round. That is way too high for Seattle’s #2 WR. Since Matt Hasselbeck has been the QB for the Seahawks, the best performance by the #2 WR in Seattle has been for 896 yards and 4 TDs in 2003. If Burleson were to come close to those numbers, he might be getting close to having solid value in Seattle, but he will likely have a tough time reaching those numbers. With a relatively healthy Darrell Jackson and a healthy Shaun Alexander, Burleson’s numbers should look more like the numbers from a #2 WR in Seattle in 2004 (~500 yds and 2 TDs). Burleson had a great season in 2004 with the Vikings when he broke 1000 yards receiving and hauled in 9 TDs, but that was with him being the #1 WR with a gimpy Randy Moss pulling away much of the coverage. Those unique circumstances will likely not arise in Seattle. Burleson is not a top flight WR and he will likely have a tough time adjusting to a new QB. The chemistry between a QB and his WR can take a while to develop. Burleson is not worth an early 9th round pick, so if someone else in your league wants him that badly, just let them have him.
Top fantasy kickers Adam Vinatieri, IND (ADP 105th overall)
Neil Rackers, ARI (ADP 112th overall)
Mike Vanderjagt, DAL (ADP 127th overall)
Shayne Graham, CIN (ADP 141st overall)
Yes, Rackers was out of this world in 2005, Vanderjagt is a kicking machine, Graham has been very reliable over the past few seasons, and Vinatieri is probably headed to the Hall of Fame thanks to his post season accomplishments, but they are all “just kickers.” They might help make your favorite NFL team better, but they won’t make that much of a difference in a standard sized league with scoring that even resembles a standard scoring league. There just isn’t that much of a difference between the top kickers and the middle of the pack kickers. On top of this, it is very difficult to predict who the top kickers will be. Rackers is a great example from 2005. He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues, yet he destroyed most other kickers in fantasy scoring. We have been in some very deep leagues (up to 20 teams), and we have never regretted waiting to draft our kickers. If you think it is time to get a kicker in your league and it is not close to the end of your draft, make sure you think long and hard about that decision. We feel like if you think hard enough, you may be able to find that diamond in the rough instead of wasting an early pick on a kicker. If you are still not convinced, try reading The Fantasy Kicker Mistake.
These were some characters you might want to let your league mates grab, so who do you go after? Check out our Sleepers, which are included in our 2006 Total Draft Package.
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