2006 Three Year Wide Receiver Candidates

The Three Year WR Rule is a great draft tactic to stash in your back pocket when entering your fantasy football draft.   Key, late-round selections are where fantasy football championships are won, and targeting players with an increased likelihood of a breakout season can take your team to an entirely different level.   For those unfamiliar with this rule, please refer to this timeless classic article for historical trends, analysis, and rationale behind this rule.

What Three Year WR Candidates are there in 2006 and who should I take?
First thing is first, so let’s show the list of Three Year WR candidates entering the 2006 fantasy football season:


With seven wide receivers taken in the first round, the 2004 NFL Draft was the year of the receiver.   We have already had two players breakout (breakout year denoted in red): Larry Fitzgerald in 2005 and Michael Clayton in 2004.  That leaves us with eight possibilities for breakout candidates for your 2006 draft.   Here is a run-through of each possibility:

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI -- As mentioned and shown in the table above, he has already had a breakout year.

Roy Williams, DET -- Williams does not fit the mold of a Three Year Wide Receiver simply due to his current and past fantasy football draft position.   The hype surrounding Williams has him on everyone’s fantasy radar, and you will have to pay too high of a price for him to be considered a true “value” pick.   This is due largely to Williams being right on the verge of breaking out in both 2004 and 2005; however, his health kept him back.   Now that new offensive coordinator Mike Martz is in town, hype will gain momentum as the season approaches, boosting Williams average draft position.  On a somewhat related note and for those hungry for some Williams hype, Detroit’s offensive line has been steadily improving and should be very respectable this year, which should give Williams that extra second or two of time to get open. (FootballDocs 2006 Offensive Line Rankings -- both run and pass blocking with in-depth write-ups -- are included in the FootballDocs Total Draft Package).

Reggie Williams, JAX -- Williams is a legitimate candidate, particularly considering the huge void left in the Jaguars receiving core by the retirement of Jimmy Smith.  However, we actually prefer the upside to second year wide receiver Matt Jones as a breakout candidate, but that does not rule out the possibility Williams could emerge this season.

Lee Evans, BUF -- We like Lee Evans prospects for a breakout year.  You can read all about it in this article.

Michael Clayton, TAM -- As mentioned and shown in the table above, Clayton has already had a breakout year; however, there are a few comments that still need to be made regarding Clayton.  First, note that he played almost the entire year in 2005 hurt.  In fact, he started the season hurt.  This is a plus entering 2006, presuming he is healthy. Having said that and on the minus, you should also note that the chemistry between Simms and Galloway was very disconcerting if you are a Clayton believer, and there have also been some disconcerting comments being made in Tampa Bay.  As such, Clayton is a dangerous, risky pick in 2006.

Michael Jenkins, ATL -- Jenkins came to the Falcons as a very tall, talented receiver from Ohio State.  While the Falcons have tried, they have yet to find a true receiving weapon (all due respect to TE Alge Crumpler) for Michael Vick.  Jenkins did show signs of earning the trust of Vick last year and could shine in 2006.  The door of opportunity opened a little further for Jenkins after WR Brian Finneran suffered a season ending injury early in the NFL Preseason.  The primary competition to Jenkins comes from second year WR Roddy White, who could spoil Jenkins breakout plans.

Rashaun Woods, FA -- Woods entered the NFL Draft from Oklahoma State as a tall receiver that could explode for massive TD fests.   He has floundered in the NFL thus far and was acquired by the Chargers in the off-season, then cut.  Next he was picked up by Denver, but also failed to make the team.   Woods is currently unsigned and his prospects for 2006 look bleak. Even if he does sign with a team this year (which he probably will), he hardly lacks the game experience in the NFL to reach that magical status of a Three Year WR.

Devery Henderson, NO -- Henderson came out of LSU with track star credentials, running for the second fastest 60 meter time in school history.  The Saints envisioned three wide receiver sets with speedsters Stallworth and Henderson burning secondaries deep and bringing in the big-play for the air assault.   With Joe Horn and previously mentioned Stallworth in place, the receiving core for the Saints is crowded.   However, we also have new QB Drew Brees in town, and his receiving favorite is yet to be determined.

Darius Watts, DEN -- Watts has a very low upside.  The one-two punch of returning from an injury coupled to the off-season acquisition of Javon Walker has really hurt any possibility of breaking out for Watts.  Things are just too crowded in Denver to see Watts having a good chance at breaking out in 2006.

Keary Colbert, CAR -- Colbert had a very nice rookie campaign, but he had a major misfire in 2005.  With the off-season acquisition of Keyshawn “Throw me the $#&@ ball” the slight upside Colbert brought to the table in 2006 took a hit.  While Johnson is by no means a speedster (by any stretch of the imagination), he does bring a tall target and possession receiver to compliment speedster and all-world WR Steve “Row, row, row your love boat” Smith. Consequently, Colbert will have to make the best of limited opportunities to have any shot at increasing his role in the receiving role.   Thus far Colbert has impressed in both practice and preseason play; however, there is a big difference between those situations and regular season game situations that matter.

Ernest Wilford, JAX -- Wilford is currently listed higher on the depth chart than Williams; however, Wilford was taken much later in the 2004 NFL Draft (4th round, 120th overall) than Williams (1st round, 9th overall).  While taken much later than Williams, thus far Wilford has developed some nice chemistry with QB Byron Leftwich (2005 stats: 681 yards and 7 TDs). However, we still like Matt Jones the best out of the three.  With Jimmy Smith gone, you can bet one of them will emerge this season.  If in the late rounds of your draft and Jones is gone, roll the dice with either Wilford or Williams -- in that order.

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