Let’s just start this little article by stating that we don’t claim to know what is going on inside the heads of the NFL’s biggest big wigs, but we figure we have just as much of a chance as anyone else figuring out how the first round of the NFL draft will go down this Saturday. While fantasy football predictions are more up our alley, we are going take a stab at the NFL 2006 Draft … because it is just too much fun and we love football.
1. Houston: Reggie Bush, RB, USC
To the Texans, it won’t matter whether Bush was involved with any NCAA violations or not. They will take this opportunity to draft one of those rare players that might be able to make a real difference to their team. With this acquisition, the Texans new head Coach, Gary Kubiak, will have plenty of offensive weapons to try and turn this struggling franchise around. From a fantasy point of view, the additions of Reggie Bush, Eric Moulds, and Jeb Putzier could make this roster a spot for some fantasy gems. If David Carr can’t make things happen with this kind of talent around him, he is in deep trouble.
2. New Orleans: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
The Saints have two decent defensive ends in Will Smith and Charles Grant. However, their offensive line was in the bottom half of the league in both passing protection and run blocking. That sounds like an obvious gap the team will need to fill. The team just paid Drew Brees a pile of cash and we suspect that they would like to keep him healthy (if he actually gets healthy between now and the start of the season). On the fantasy side of things, this would help the entire offense of the Saints, but it will especially help the team’s running back. The Saints have added Michael Bennett just incase Deuce McAllister can’t carry the full load. One or both of these players could have some fantasy impact in 2006.
3. Tennessee: Matt Leinart, QB, USC
The Titans must be blowing smoke about VinceYoung. The rumor is that they love Young and want to take him. There is no way they would leak this information unless it was a diversion. Would you broadcast who you were going to take before your fantasy draft? Exactly! These people have their careers on the line and you can bet that they are playing it “close to the vest.” Rookie QBs are not the place to make your fantasy investments in redraft leagues. In a keeper league, Leinart could have some value in the near future. He knows his OC, Norm Chow, very well and he knows his schemes, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Leinart come along quickly.
4. N.Y. Jets: Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State
The Jets have been leaking information about how they like Jay Cutler and how they like Matt Leinart and how they like Vince Young and even how they like Brodie Croyle. With all of this QB talk we can only draw one conclusion; they are NOT going to take a QB with their first pick. More smoke screens from the NFL teams are par for the course when it comes to the NFL draft. Keep these tricks in mind when doing your own fantasy draft later this year. Let it leak out that you really like Daunte Culpepper in the first round because you think he is going to go back to his 2004 stats. Then you can grab the running back you wanted all along. Mario Williams is a special freak of nature and that is just the type of player that NFL teams cannot wait to get their hands on. The team parted ways with John Abraham and they need to fill that position. The Jets D should be improved over last season, but you probably won’t want to own them in 2006. Speaking of Abraham, the Falcons are going to have to be considered one of this year’s big winners in the first round of the NFL draft despite the fact they no longer have a first round pick. The acquisition of Abraham should help return the Falcons fantasy D back to relevance.
5. Green Bay: Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
We have seen everyone and their brother predict A.J. Hawk for this spot, but we are going to get crazy and go for Davis. We think Hawk would be a “safe” pick at this spot, but the Packers could use something else to make Brett Favre happy. No doubt that the Packers would love to get their hands on D'Brickashaw Ferguson, but we can think of few scenarios that would land Ferguson in their lap. From a fantasy perspective, this would be a very exciting pick. If the Packers don’t take Davis, it is likely that the 49ers will take him. We feel a WHOLE lot better having Favre tossing passes to this rookie rather than Alex Smith. Davis could have a big impact in Green Bay. The Packers do have Bubba Franks, but he can’t even come close to stretching the field like Davis can. We don’t expect to see Javon Walker catching passes for the Packers in 2006, so another set of hands would help Favre out substantially.
6. San Francisco: Michael Huff, DB, Texas
They would have like to have gotten Vernon Davis, but the 49ers need defensive help in a bad way and Huff would be a great selection. They pass on A.J. Hawk here because they plan on getting a linebacker with their other 1st round pick.
7. Oakland: Vince Young, QB, Texas
Al Davis will probably throw out his back jumping for joy if Young becomes a Raaaaaiiiiiider. We don’t think this is the best place for Young, but he won’t be expected to start right away because the team recently acquired Aaron Brooks. Brooks has exhibited a lot of immaturity during his NFL career, so don’t be surprised if you see Young take the field at some point this season. Young is a leader who we think will do very well in the NFL. Young doesn’t have much fantasy value in 2006, but he should have some nice future value in keeper leagues. If your keeper league gives bonuses for rushing yards and TDs by QBs, Young’s value should be even higher.
8. Buffalo: Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
Bunkley is another one of those physical freaks that the NFL loves. Bunkley was beastin’ at the NFL combine. He ran his two 40s in 4.91 and 4.98 at 6’2” and 306 lbs. He had vertical jump of 32 ½”, and a 9’5” long jump. His shuttle and three cone drills were impressive as well, but let’s get to this jokers bench press. He benched 225 lbs 44 times. After his workouts, they pulled out the branding iron and stamped “USDA-NFL BEEF / DO NOT OPEN UNTIL 1ST ROUND” on his hip. Oh yeah. He is a player, and the Bills defense needs some help.
9. Detroit: A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State
Finally, the Lions will take something other than a WR with their top 10 first round pick. Just for history’s sake, can you remember who went right after the Lions’ selection of Mike Williams in the 2005 draft? DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman. Things that make you go … “that’s why the Lions stink”. This time around the Lions will take a defensive player with their top 10 pick. Hawk is a football player who will make the Detroit defense better. What more do you need? The Lions D should be in the top half of the league in fantasy rankings for 2006.
10. Arizona: Winston Justice, OT, USC
Let’s take a look back at who Dennis Green’s teams have drafted in the first round when he was the head coach: Robert Smith(RB), DeWayne Washington(CB), Todd Steussie(T), Derrick Alexander(DE), Korey Stringer(T), Duane Clemons(DE), Dwayne Rudd(OLB), Randy Moss(WR), Daunte Culpepper(QB), Dimitrius Underwood(DT), Chris Hovan(DT), Michael Bennett(RB), Larry Fitzgerald(WR), Antrel Rolle(CB). About 43% of Green’s picks have been on either the offensive or defensive line. A lot of people say Jay Cutler here, but we think Green will surprise with a big man. The Cardinals had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year and they need to do something about it. Cutler would be a nice future plan, but Green wants to win now. Justice would be a great fantasy boost for the entire Cardinals offense. Hopefully Justice can keep Kurt Warner off his back in 2006. If he can’t, the Cardinals have John Navarre and Rohan Davey ready to take over. Don’t count the Cardinals out for a later QB pick in this draft either.
11. St. Louis: Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
The Rams need a cornerback in a bad way. They will take one here. They may be considering Tye Hill, but we think that the athletic ability of Williams will lure Jim Haslett into making this pick. The Saint Louis fantasy defense was terrible last season and they could use some help.
12. Cleveland: Manny Lawson, OLB, N.C. State
Romeo Crennel is trying to create “Patriots West” in Cleveland. He will need lots of ability in his linebacker corps to do this, so look for him to add the versatile Lawson. He can rush the passer and cover in passing situations. Keep an eye on the Browns fantasy defense. They were in the bottom half of the league in 2005, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the top half of fantasy defenses in 2006.
13. Baltimore: Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
Hill will help bolster the strength of the Ravens, their defense. The defense could use some help in the secondary, and Hill can provide that. Jay Cutler might be a nice selection here, but Brian Billick is going to go down with the Kyle Boller ship. Boller did start to show a spark at the end of last season and that should be enough to keep the team from spending a first round pick on one this season. From a fantasy perspective, this should help the Ravens improve on their disappointing fantasy performance in 2005.
14. Philadelphia: Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State
The Eagles like to dominate with their offensive line. The will continue to build on that tradition by selecting the best center in the draft. This pick has Any Reid written all over it. Look for the Eagles offense to surprise a lot of people and still find success even without all-world WR Terrell Owens.
15. Denver: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
The Broncos need someone to replace Rod Smith because he is going to start collecting social security soon and Ashley Lelie isn’t the answer. The Broncos could think about a running back here, but they will likely plan on grabbing one later in the draft. Jackson could have slight fantasy impact in 2006, but we wouldn’t bank on it.
16. Miami: Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
Miami needs some secondary help and Cromartie can provide just that. His combination of size and speed won’t last long in the first round and this is where we are predicting him to go. We hope this will help the Dolphins improve on their fantasy defense rank of 15 from last season.
17. Minnesota: Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
The Cutler slide ends in Minnesota. We think that the Vikings will be very pleased with this pick and they will hope that they have their QB of the future. Culter will likely not see much of the field in 2006, so don’t by any fantasy stock in him in redraft leagues. In keeper leagues, he could have some great value if he is anything like his hype.
18. Dallas: Kamerion Wimbley, OLB, Florida State
Bill Parcells need a big boy to come off the other corner opposite of DeMarcus Ware and Wimbley would be the perfect fit. Makes us get all dreamy eyed and think of LT and Carl Banks. We are sure that is what Parcells and the Cowboy nation will be dreaming of as well. The Cowboys D’s fantasy value should continue to rise in 2006.
19. San Diego: Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
What team in the NFL couldn’t use a corner? San Diego needs someone to help bolster their defense, because their new QB, Phillip Rivers, will need all the help he can get if the team plans on thinking about the playoffs.
20. Kansas City: Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
Ngata slides in our prediction because the teams above either had other needs or they didn’t run a defense that isn’t suited to his talents. Kansas City should be running a 4-3 and Ngata will be a nice fit here at 6’4”, 338 lbs. The Chiefs D has been its weak point for years and we expect Herman Edwards to address that need with this pick.
21. New England: Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio State
We could see Carpenter or Greenway with this pick because both have Bill Belichick written all over them. The Patriots defense was uncharacteristically terrible last season and we have a feeling that the Evil Genius will get to work at putting his winning machine back together again.
22. San Francisco: Ernie Sims, OLB, Florida State
The 49ers need someone to play outside linebacker and Sims could be their man. He has speed to burn and solid tackling ability. The 49ers are starting to look a lot better on defense already. That should help them improve on last season’s terrible record.
23. Tampa Bay: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
The Buccaneers need a playmaker and that is just what they get in Holmes. Joey Galloway can’t be counted on for too long because of his age and injury history, so Holmes could help set the foundation for the future of the Bucs. Holmes will have a little fantasy value in 2006.
24. Cincinnati: Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa
Greenway would be a great fit to play weak side linebacker for the Bengals. The defense still has some work to do if it wants to get up to Marvin Lewis’ standards. Greenway is a linebacker that just makes plays with a great motor.
25. N.Y. Giants: Eric Winston, OT, Miami
With LaVar Arrington in the fold, the Giants can look other places. We are sure that the Giants offensive line is not up to where they would like it to be and that makes Winston a nice selection at this point in the draft. Making a pick to help protect Eli Manning, wouldn’t be a bad idea.
26. Chicago: Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio State
What a great name. We think Youboty will be just what the Bears are looking for at corner. Azumah is no longer with the team, so a corner makes perfect sense for the Bears.
27. Carolina: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
If you take a look at the Panthers’ RB depth chart, it is clear that this team needs a running back with their first pick. Williams would be a great grab for the Panthers because that love to pound that rock. DeShaun Foster probably won’t be able to make it through the season without a little help and Williams could be just that. Williams could have a fantasy impact as early as this season. Foster is one of the more brittle running backs in the NFL, so an injury that would allow Williams to take the spotlight is not out of the question.
28. Jacksonville: DeMeco Ryans, OLB, Alabama
Ryans will be just what the Doctor ordered for the Jaguars. Former NFL linebacker and Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio will be more than happy to add a player like Ryans to his defensive roster.
29. N.Y. Jets: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
Curtis Martin is nearing the end of a great career, so the Jets will need to find someone to replace him. Maroney could be the successor that they are looking for to replace this NFL great. Maroney was a workhorse at Minnesota and could have fantasy value in 2006. If he is drafted here, he should probably be drafted late in deep fantasy drafts as well because this could be Martin’s last season.
30. Indianapolis: Davin Joseph, OG, Oklahoma
The Colts would have loved to have grabbed Maroney and they will let LenDale White slide, so they will now try to solidify their offensive line that had “some protection problems” at the end of 2005. Taking care of the O-line will help take care of Peyton Manning and everyone knows that Manning is the Colts’ meal ticket.
31. Seattle: Jason Allen, S, Tennessee
Allen has potential that is on pace with Michael Huff, but his health lets him slide to the 31st pick. Seattle will be thrilled to grab Allen at this point. As we said earlier, what team couldn’t use a good cornerback?
32. Pittsburgh: LenDale White, RB, USC
The Steelers stop White from falling out of the first round. The departure of Jerome Bettis left a BIG hole in the hearts of the Steelers. White will be called on to help fill that hole. The Steelers want to pound the ball and that will require more than Willie Parker. White could become the Steelers’ TD vulture and that makes him valuable in most fantasy leagues.
